THE PALLILOG
How shifting playoff landscape impacts Houston Astros trajectory
Sep 29, 2023, 11:02 am
The Astros open a 3-game series with Arizona on Friday night. Composite image by Jack Brame.
How MLB media's Astros disrespect has reached another level
The sports cliché about controlling one's own destiny is oxymoronic given the very definition of destiny. So let's say the Astros have the ball in their own court. Their job is not done but with their season perilously close to bleeding out that was a timely baseball tourniquet the Astros applied in winning two out of three in Seattle.
The Astros' dream scenario entering their regular season-ending series at Arizona is simple: The Astros sweep three while the Mariners win at least two of the remaining three games in their series with the Texas Rangers. The Astros would win the American League West outright if the Mariners sweep. If the Mariners win two of three, the Astros and Rangers would both finish 90-72, the Mariners 89-73, with the Astros winning the division title and bye into the Division Series by virtue of the Astros owning the Astros-Rangers season series tiebreaker.
If the Astros win two of three in the desert to close 89-73 they are in as a Wild Card.
If they drop two of three in the desert the Astros are out entirely if the Mariners take two of three from the Rangers. The Astros lose tiebreakers to both the M's and Toronto Blue Jays.
If the Astros get swept, F%#%^$! Backing in would require the Mariners winning no more against the Rangers.
The Astros have no walkover in Arizona. The Diamondbacks are positioned to get a National League Wild Card but haven't clinched, so the Astros will face the D'Backs "A" team at least Friday, including ace starting pitcher Zac Gallen. In one game you never know, but Gallen is clearly better than Astros' Friday starter J.P. France.
The Mariners' dramatic win Thursday night means the Astros cannot clinch a playoff spot until Saturday at the earliest. It would have been huge to wrap up a Wild Card Friday. Now, unless the Astros opt to go with Hunter Brown (um, no) or Jose Urquidy, Justin Verlander is their starter Saturday. With the Wild Card series slated for Tuesday/Wednesday/if necessary Thursday, Verlander pitching Saturday takes him out of the Wild Card series until a prospective decisive game three, presuming starting the 40-year-old Verlander on three days rest in game two (if the Astros were facing elimination) would be off the table.
If the Astros were the Mets or Yankees during the 4-12 fade the Astros posted, along the way there probably would have been a typically understated New York Post headline reading “Breggy Bum.” Bregman's salsa certainly has more kick to it than his performance down the stretch has had. He enters the Arizona series with a paltry three hits in his last 36 at bats (batting average .083), seven hits in his last 54 at bats (.130).
Bregman's very up and down season has had multiple stretches during which he's been awful.
Bregman turns 30 years old two days after the 2024 season opener. His contract is up after next season. Over the last four seasons Bregman is a .260 hitter who does draw a lot of walks. He's been an above average offensive player, but closer to average than to great. And while he has tremendous hands defensively, Bregman has committed a career-worst 15 errors. Injuries have curtailed his games played in multiple seasons, but last year Bregman played in 154 games and made just seven errors.
Bregman isn't worth a mega-dollar long term extension that starts when he's 31. The sticky spot for the Astros is their weak farm system has no quality prospect emerging as a comparable successor, unless perhaps this year's first round draft pick Brice Matthews is projectable as a third baseman.
If during the Astros' skid you were thinking “This is the worst choke job ever!” that's understandable, but it wasn't. Which is not saying going 2-7 vs. the sad-sack A's and Royals was anything better than pitiful.
The most famous blown postseason spot of all-time award probably goes to the 1964 Phillies. That was in the pre-divisions era meaning the postseason consisted of just the World Series. The Phils led the National League by six games with just 12 to play. They then lost 10 in a row. In what could be fairly called foolish desperation, during the collapse manager Gene Mauch repeatedly used his two best starting pitchers on just two days rest. After dumping 10 straight, the Phillies won their final two games, and finished one game behind St. Louis which went on to beat the Yankees in the World Series.
The Phillies were on the other end of the choke stick in 2007 when the New York Mets managed to puke up the seven game NL East lead they held with only 17 games left. The Mets 5-12 el foldo enabled the Phils to overtake them and win the division by one game. The last day of the season the Mets could have forced a one game playoff with a home win over the then Florida Marlins. Instead, future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine lasted just one-third of an inning getting blasted for seven runs and that was that.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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