Decisive factors for Astros in series opener against Phillies

ASTROS-PHILLIES PREVIEW

Decisive factors for Astros in series opener against Phillies
The Phillies host the Astros on Monday night. Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

Houston Astros (70-60, first in the AL West) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (76-54, first in the NL East)

Philadelphia; Monday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

PITCHING PROBABLES: Astros: Ronel Blanco (9-6, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 136 strikeouts); Phillies: Zack Wheeler (12-6, 2.73 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 170 strikeouts)

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK: LINE Phillies -161, Astros +137; over/under is 8 runs

BOTTOM LINE: The Philadelphia Phillies play the Houston Astros after Garrett Stubbs had four hits against the Royals on Sunday.

Philadelphia is 76-54 overall and 42-23 in home games. The Phillies have the third-ranked team batting average in the NL at .259.

Houston has a 70-60 record overall and a 35-31 record on the road. The Astros have the ninth-best team on-base percentage in MLB play at .321.

Monday’s game is the first time these teams meet this season.

TOP PERFORMERS: Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 28 home runs while slugging .471. Trea Turner is 14-for-43 with three doubles, a home run and seven RBI over the last 10 games.

Jose Altuve has 22 doubles and 18 home runs for the Astros. Alex Bregman is 13-for-44 with two doubles and six home runs over the past 10 games.

LAST 10 GAMES: Phillies: 6-4, .298 batting average, 3.21 ERA, outscored opponents by 25 runs

Astros: 5-5, .266 batting average, 2.97 ERA, outscored opponents by nine runs

INJURIES: Phillies: Spencer Turnbull: 60-Day IL (back), Luis Ortiz: 60-Day IL (ankle), Dylan Covey: 60-Day IL (shoulder)

Astros: Yordan Alvarez: day-to-day (neck), J.P. France: 60-Day IL (undisclosed), Ryan Pressly: 15-Day IL (back), Kyle Tucker: 60-Day IL (shin), Cristian Javier: 60-Day IL (forearm), Jose Urquidy: 60-Day IL (forearm), Oliver Ortega: 60-Day IL (elbow), Bennett Sousa: 60-Day IL (shoulder), Penn Murfee: 60-Day IL (elbow), Luis Garcia: 60-Day IL (elbow), Lance McCullers Jr.: 60-Day IL (elbow), Kendall Graveman: 60-Day IL (elbow)

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Can Joe Mixon help the Texans remain undefeated at home? Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

With the Texans coming off their sorry second half showing at the Jets and the Detroit Lions coming to town riding a six-game winning streak, it has the look of pretender vs. contender Sunday night at NRG Stadium. The 7-1 Lions are obviously the better team but that is no guarantee that they will be the better team Sunday night. The point spread is only three and a half points. It’s not as if a Texans victory would be a stunning upset. The Texans knocking off the Lions would not balance the books for the Detroit Tigers having bounced the Astros from the baseball playoffs last month, but it would be one of the better regular season wins in Texans’ history.

If not upsetting, it certainly isn’t uplifting that Nick Caserio made zero consequential moves before Tuesday’s trade deadline. If you’re a Texans fan it is upsetting, though shouldn’t be infuriating. Claiming off waivers an offensive lineman (Zachary Thomas) who was getting about 10 snaps per game on one of the very worst o-lines in the NFL (New England Patriots) does not qualify as consequential. It’s not as if Caserio could snap his fingers and make a great deal for a legitimate starting left guard. But his job is to build the roster and he made nothing that qualifies as even a modest upgrade to the most glaring weakness on the team. Play can’t be much worse than what Kenyon Green was providing at left guard before his season-ending injury. But Kenyon was only playing because the staff considered him better than Kendrick Green and Jarrett Patterson. Or, Kenyon was getting unwarranted extended run to prove conclusively he was a waste of a first-round draft pick in 2022.

If Caserio believes the Texans are a bonafide threat in the AFC, adding nothing is a clear fail. Any gurgling about “we believe in our guys” as justification for inertia should be scoffed at, unless Caserio or anyone else believes the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, and Ravens didn’t “believe in their guys.” All those AFC contenders made clear upgrades. This is not talking about the Texans trading high draft choices. Last week the Minnesota Vikings acquired Jacksonville starting left tackle Cam Robinson for a conditional fifth-round pick.

Tale of the tape

As for Sunday, NBC has to be hoping the Texans being 4-0 this season at NRG Stadium bodes well for them, at least giving the Lions a good game. The Texans are with the Chiefs, Bills, Commanders (!), and Bears (!!) as unbeaten at home. On the other hand, the Lions are a perfect 4-0 on the road. The Chiefs and Falcons have also yet to lose on the road.

While hoping that Aidan Hutchinson makes a complete recovery from his multiple leg fractures, the Lions’ beastly defensive end’s absence sure helps the cause of the Texans’ feeble pass-protecting offensive line. Hutchinson was the early leader for Defensive Player of the Year with seven and a half sacks in five games before he went down. The Lions traded for DE Za’Darius Smith from Cleveland this week. It’s unclear whether Smith makes his Detroit debut chasing C.J. Stroud.

The Texans have topped 30 points in a game once this season. The Lions average an NFL-leading 32.3 per game, topping 30 in four of their last five games, only coming up short last Sunday in a rain-soaked 24-14 win at Green Bay. Over those five games quarterback Jared Goff has completed an absurd 83.8 percent of his passes, with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. For the season Goff is completing 74.9 percent. If he maintains that number, he’ll break the NFL record of 74.4 that Drew Brees posted with the Saints in 2018.

Third time's the charm?

Only once in their history have the Texans managed three consecutive winning seasons. They went 9-7 in each of them under Bill O’Brien in 2014, ‘15, and ‘16. They did so with three different quarterbacks leading them in passing yardage: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and Brock Osweiler (really!). The Lions are two victories from securing their first back-to-back-to-back winning seasons since 1993, ‘94, and ‘95. That was the heyday of the great Barry Sanders at running back. Three different quarterbacks led the Lions in passing yardage those years. You’re probably fibbing if you claimed “I know them: Rodney Peete, Dave Krieg, and Scott Mitchell.”

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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