Critical factors to watch as Astros seek to extend win streak in finale versus Rays
BLANCO ON THE HILL
14 August 2024
BLANCO ON THE HILL
Houston Astros (64-55, first in the AL West) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (59-60, fourth in the AL East)
St. Petersburg, Florida; Wednesday, 6:50 p.m. EDT
PITCHING PROBABLES: Astros: Ronel Blanco (9-6, 3.02 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 126 strikeouts); Rays: Zack Littell (5-8, 4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 113 strikeouts)
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK: LINE Astros -122, Rays +102; over/under is 8 runs
BOTTOM LINE: The Houston Astros are looking to keep a seven-game win streak intact when they play the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay has a 31-33 record at home and a 59-60 record overall. The Rays have gone 35-7 in games when they scored at least five runs.
Houston is 64-55 overall and 32-29 in road games. Astros hitters have a collective .321 on-base percentage, the fourth-ranked percentage in the AL.
The teams meet Wednesday for the sixth time this season. The Astros lead the season series 3-2.
TOP PERFORMERS: Christopher Morel has seven doubles, a triple, 20 home runs and 53 RBI while hitting .190 for the Rays. Josh Lowe is 9-for-28 with three doubles and two home runs over the last 10 games.
Jose Altuve has 21 doubles and 15 home runs for the Astros. Alex Bregman is 16-for-45 with four doubles and five home runs over the last 10 games.
LAST 10 GAMES: Rays: 4-6, .219 batting average, 3.58 ERA, outscored by six runs
Astros: 7-3, .264 batting average, 2.79 ERA, outscored opponents by 16 runs
INJURIES: Rays: Richard Palacios: 10-Day IL (knee), Ryan Pepiot: 15-Day IL (knee), Jacob Waguespack: 60-Day IL (shoulder), Shane McClanahan: 60-Day IL (forearm)
Astros: Kyle Tucker: 60-Day IL (shin), Justin Verlander: 15-Day IL (neck), Cristian Javier: 60-Day IL (forearm), Jose Urquidy: 60-Day IL (forearm), Oliver Ortega: 60-Day IL (elbow), Bennett Sousa: 60-Day IL (shoulder), Penn Murfee: 60-Day IL (elbow), Luis Garcia: 60-Day IL (elbow), Lance McCullers Jr.: 60-Day IL (elbow), Kendall Graveman: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Over the weekend, reports surfaced about the Astros circling back to the Cardinals about a potential trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado after Alex Bregman agreed to a contract with the Red Sox.
Shortly thereafter, The Athletic reported that the talks haven't gained any “traction” and no trade is expected to take place in the near future. (Thank goodness).
There's also the issue of Arenado's no-trade clause, further complicating the issue. However, the most notable information to takeaway from these reports has to be Houston's comfort (or lack there of) with their current roster.
Not only does this signal concern about the state of the infield, but it also shows how serious the Astros are about Jose Altuve playing a significant amount of time in left field.
According to MLB.com, had the deal originally gone down, the Astros would have been on the hook for Arenado's three-year contract that would cost Houston between $40-45 million after the Cardinals ate part of the salary.
Despite St. Louis kicking in part of the money, trading for Arenado would push the Astros past the competitive balance tax, something many believe owner Jim Crane was looking to avoid.
Considering Arenado's rapid regression in 2024, it's hard to imagine why Houston's front office would even entertain this move. Did they not learn anything from the Jose Abreu contract?
Arenado will play this season at 34 years old, and Houston would be stuck with his contract through his age 36 season. Sounds familiar. To make matters worse, Arenado's advanced stats are even more concerning.
Last season his bat speed was below average, and he recorded his career-worst stats in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and slugging. And get this, he only had 39 extra-base hits in 2024 over 152 games played.
In 2023 with Houston, Abreu had 42 extra-base hits. But that's just part of the issue. Many Astros fans are begging for Arenado to join the team because he's a much better option than Mauricio Dubon.
The thought being Isaac Paredes would move to second base, with Arenado playing third, pushing Dubon to a utility role. Be careful what you wish for, Astros fans.
When Dubon received regular playing time in 2023 while Jose Altuve was out with a broken thumb, he posted 39 extra-base hits, the same number as Arenado last season. But Dubon was able to do that playing in 20 fewer games! Dubon also slugged .411 compared to Arenado's .394.
Why would the Astros pay Arenado roughly $15 million per season when he's arguably no better than the much cheaper, (and younger) Dubon? Makes zero sense. When a player shows you they're declining, believe them!
Can the Astros avoid another slow start?
The Astros had a huge hole to dig out of last year after a disastrous start to the season. They managed to prove a lot of haters wrong and finish with another division title, but it wasn't easy.
The two things they really struggled with were manufacturing runs late in games, and bullpen meltdowns. When looking at the current roster, are they better positioned this year to avoid stumbling out of the gate?
Be sure to watch the video above as we also address MLB's new challenge system, what's going on with Jim Crane, and much more!
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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