KEEP THE FAITH

Context is king: Invaluable lessons for projecting Astros last stand

Context is king: Invaluable lessons for projecting Astros last stand
The Rangers host the Astros for Game 3 on Wednesday night. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

“These are the times that try men’s souls” – Revolutionary War patriot Thomas Paine.

We saw the numbers splash across the bottom of our TV screen after Game 2 of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park, where the Texas Rangers beat the Astros, 5-4.

Teams that go up 2-0 in the post-season win 84 percent of series. That would be the Texas Rangers they’re talking about.

It gets worse.

Teams are 0-21 after losing the first two LCS games at home. (gulp) That’s the Astros.

“Judge me how many times I fell down and got back up again.” — Nelson Mandela.

Let’s not walk out in the seventh inning or give up the ship, Astros fans. Hope is not lost. Remember …

The ALCS now shifts to Globe Life Field for three games. So the Astros have the Rangers right where they want them – in Arlington. The Astros had a weirdly winning record on the road this year, 51-30. Even better, the Astros were 6-1 against the Rangers at Globe Life Field. The ol’ away field advantage.

But the Rangers had a strong home record, 50-31. Worlds are colliding, Jerry.

The Astros entered the ALCS as slight betting favorites over the Rangers. After going down 0-2, Vegas wiseguys have the Astros as significant underdogs. In fact, the Rangers are now favorites to win the World Series.

“If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you.” — Rudyard Kipling.

The Fox announcers spent several minutes musing why the Astros are dominant on the road but have an upside-down record at home. Here’s why … I think anyway. Actually, I’m surprised that more teams don’t play better away from home. When baseball teams hit the road, they stay at hotels like the Four Seasons and get hundreds of dollars of meal money to spend at the finest restaurants. At the Four Seasons, part of their “signature sleep experience” is their mattress, which costs $4,300. You often hear that teams like playing home games because they get to sleep in their own beds. I don’t have a $4,300 mattress at home – do you?

On the road, players aren’t bothered by their wives or girlfriends (in some cases both). Players get to hold the remote when they watch TV. They can order room service and nobody complains about crumbs in bed. They can leave the seat up on the toilet. Life is fantastic in a hotel.

So it’s understandable why the Astros had a big year on the road and a losing record at home. Hey, a lot of us had a losing record at home this year.

I once asked former Houston Rockets coach, now-Boston Celtics consultant, why do sports teams typically have a hard time winning on the road? They live a life of luxury on the road.

JVG replied, “I’ve never been able to figure that out, either. It doesn’t make sense.” And he’s been on the road more than Willie Nelson.

“Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow, don’t stop it’ll soon be here, it’ll be better than before, yesterday’s gone, yesterday’s gone.” — Fleetwood Mac.

Mattress Mack has another of his Astros promotions running this year. Buy a mattress for $3,000 or more and if the Astros win the World Series, you get your money back. I don’t know if you still have to pay the tax, though.

Now, I’m sure that Mack is rooting emotionally for the Astros to win the Series. But financially, which benefits him more, the Astros winning or losing? The only way we’d know if for him to say how many mattresses went out the door at Gallery Furniture, how much profit he makes on each mattress, and that ain’t gonna happen.

“You may not realize when it happens, but a kick in the teeth may be the best thing in the world for you.” — Walt Disney.

While it’s never happened that a team has recovered from dropping the first two games of an LCS at home, the Astros are a decent value bet to break that streak. Besides being kings of the road, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy are slated to pitch Games 3 and 4. They’re both hot. More important, the Astros owned the Rangers this season, especially in Arlington.

Plus, the Rangers will be sleeping in their lumpy old mattresses at home the next three nights.

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Has Christian Walker finally turned the corner? Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

The Houston Astros return to Daikin Park on Tuesday night looking to keep their momentum going as they host the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET, with Ryan Gusto (3-1, 2.78 ERA) on the mound for Houston against Detroit’s Reese Olson (3-1, 3.29 ERA).

Winners of seven of their last ten, the Astros (15-13) have found their rhythm after a rocky start to the season. Their recent surge has been fueled by dominant pitching — a 2.35 ERA over the last 10 games — and improved production at the plate, including a .264 team batting average over that span. Houston has also outscored opponents by 18 runs during that stretch and boasts a solid 10-6 record at home.

While the offense has yet to fully catch fire, signs of life are emerging. Jeremy Peña continues to be a steady presence with five doubles and three homers, while Christian Walker has driven in six runs over his last 10 games, including three long balls. The Astros’ bats will be tested against a Tigers staff that leads the American League with a 2.86 ERA.

Houston’s Tuesday starter, Ryan Gusto, has been sharp through his first five outings, posting a 1.10 WHIP and 23 strikeouts. He’ll look to keep Detroit’s bats quiet, especially red-hot Zach McKinstry, who’s hitting .406 over his last 10 games, and slugger Spencer Torkelson, who already has eight homers this season.

The Tigers (18-11) may sit atop their division, but they’ve struggled away from home, going just 5-8 on the road. The Astros will look to capitalize and even the season series in their second matchup with Detroit.

With the offense trending upward and the pitching staff in a groove, Houston has a prime opportunity to keep building momentum in front of the home crowd.

Here's a sneak peek at the Astros lineup. Altuve is once again batting second after asking manager Joe Espada to move him down in the batting order. Zach Dezenzo is playing right field with Cam Smith getting the night off. Jake Meyers is back in center field and Mauricio Dubon is starting at second base.

Image via: MLB.com/Screenshot

A big test awaits

It appears the Astros may have tipped their hand regarding tomorrow's starting pitcher. Chandler Rome is reporting AJ Blubaugh is at Daikin Park today.

Following Tuesday night's game, Blubaugh has been officially announced as the starter.

Espada said Hayden Wesneski is not injured but needs more time to recover from his last start.

*ChatGPT assisted.

___________________________

Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!

https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome