KEEP THE FAITH

Context is king: Invaluable lessons for projecting Astros last stand

Context is king: Invaluable lessons for projecting Astros last stand
The Rangers host the Astros for Game 3 on Wednesday night. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

“These are the times that try men’s souls” – Revolutionary War patriot Thomas Paine.

We saw the numbers splash across the bottom of our TV screen after Game 2 of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park, where the Texas Rangers beat the Astros, 5-4.

Teams that go up 2-0 in the post-season win 84 percent of series. That would be the Texas Rangers they’re talking about.

It gets worse.

Teams are 0-21 after losing the first two LCS games at home. (gulp) That’s the Astros.

“Judge me how many times I fell down and got back up again.” — Nelson Mandela.

Let’s not walk out in the seventh inning or give up the ship, Astros fans. Hope is not lost. Remember …

The ALCS now shifts to Globe Life Field for three games. So the Astros have the Rangers right where they want them – in Arlington. The Astros had a weirdly winning record on the road this year, 51-30. Even better, the Astros were 6-1 against the Rangers at Globe Life Field. The ol’ away field advantage.

But the Rangers had a strong home record, 50-31. Worlds are colliding, Jerry.

The Astros entered the ALCS as slight betting favorites over the Rangers. After going down 0-2, Vegas wiseguys have the Astros as significant underdogs. In fact, the Rangers are now favorites to win the World Series.

“If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you.” — Rudyard Kipling.

The Fox announcers spent several minutes musing why the Astros are dominant on the road but have an upside-down record at home. Here’s why … I think anyway. Actually, I’m surprised that more teams don’t play better away from home. When baseball teams hit the road, they stay at hotels like the Four Seasons and get hundreds of dollars of meal money to spend at the finest restaurants. At the Four Seasons, part of their “signature sleep experience” is their mattress, which costs $4,300. You often hear that teams like playing home games because they get to sleep in their own beds. I don’t have a $4,300 mattress at home – do you?

On the road, players aren’t bothered by their wives or girlfriends (in some cases both). Players get to hold the remote when they watch TV. They can order room service and nobody complains about crumbs in bed. They can leave the seat up on the toilet. Life is fantastic in a hotel.

So it’s understandable why the Astros had a big year on the road and a losing record at home. Hey, a lot of us had a losing record at home this year.

I once asked former Houston Rockets coach, now-Boston Celtics consultant, why do sports teams typically have a hard time winning on the road? They live a life of luxury on the road.

JVG replied, “I’ve never been able to figure that out, either. It doesn’t make sense.” And he’s been on the road more than Willie Nelson.

“Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow, don’t stop it’ll soon be here, it’ll be better than before, yesterday’s gone, yesterday’s gone.” — Fleetwood Mac.

Mattress Mack has another of his Astros promotions running this year. Buy a mattress for $3,000 or more and if the Astros win the World Series, you get your money back. I don’t know if you still have to pay the tax, though.

Now, I’m sure that Mack is rooting emotionally for the Astros to win the Series. But financially, which benefits him more, the Astros winning or losing? The only way we’d know if for him to say how many mattresses went out the door at Gallery Furniture, how much profit he makes on each mattress, and that ain’t gonna happen.

“You may not realize when it happens, but a kick in the teeth may be the best thing in the world for you.” — Walt Disney.

While it’s never happened that a team has recovered from dropping the first two games of an LCS at home, the Astros are a decent value bet to break that streak. Besides being kings of the road, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy are slated to pitch Games 3 and 4. They’re both hot. More important, the Astros owned the Rangers this season, especially in Arlington.

Plus, the Rangers will be sleeping in their lumpy old mattresses at home the next three nights.

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The Angels beat the Astros, 4-1. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

Oswald Peraza hit a two-run single in the ninth inning to help the Los Angeles Angels snap a three-game losing skid by beating the Houston Astros 4-1 on Saturday night.

Peraza entered the game as a defensive replacement in the seventh inning and hit a bases-loaded fly ball to deep right field that eluded the outstretched glove of Cam Smith. It was the fourth straight hit off Astros closer Bryan Abreu (3-4), who had not allowed a run in his previous 12 appearances.

The Angels third run of the ninth inning scored when Mike Trout walked with the bases loaded.

Kyle Hendricks allowed one run while scattering seven hits over six innings. He held the Astros to 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position, the one hit coming on Jesús Sánchez’s third-inning infield single that scored Jeremy Peña.

Reid Detmers worked around a leadoff walk to keep the Astros scoreless in the seventh, and José Fermin (3-2) retired the side in order in the eighth before Kenley Jansen worked a scoreless ninth to earn his 24th save.

Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti struck out a season-high eight batters over 6 1/3 innings. The only hit he allowed was Zach Neto’s third-inning solo home run.

Yordan Alvarez had two hits for the Astros, who remained three games ahead of Seattle for first place in the AL West.

Key moment

Peraza’s two-run single to deep right field that broke a 1-1 tie in the ninth.

Key Stat

Opponents were 5 for 44 against Abreu in August before he allowed four straight hits in the ninth.

Up next

Astros RHP Hunter Brown (10-6, 2.37 ERA) faces RHP José Soriano (9-9, 3.85) when the series continues Sunday.

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