THE PALLILOG
Here’s some tasty food for thought leading into a telling Astros stretch
Apr 13, 2023, 12:47 pm
The Astros have some tough opponents coming up. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.
The Astros 6-7 record entering the season’s third week is mildly disappointing but nothing worse. Splitting the six games they’ve had with the Tigers and Pirates does not say juggernaut, but it’s no big deal. Even though the Tigers opened 2-1 against the Astros, 0-8 vs. everybody else. 162 game season, stuff happens. Minus Justin Verlander and Jose Altuve (despite Maurice Dubon’s surprisingly good start at the plate) the Astros can’t be the juggernaut they were in 2022. This still projects to be a very good team and remains the clear favorite in the American League West. As for the American League’s overall hierarchy, if the Tampa Bay Rays are going 162-0 this season, they will be very hard to catch.
The next two weeks do not remotely comprise a make-or-break portion of the Astros’ schedule, but if they don’t raise their level of play some, the Astros will look to be the most vulnerable they’ve been in years (with the exception of the short 2020 COVID season). The much improved Texas Rangers are in for the weekend, though they arrive having lost shortstop Corey Seager to a bad hamstring pull that will sideline him for at least a month. The Astros also will not face new Rangers’ ace starting pitcher Jacob DeGrom. After the Rangers George Springer and the rest of the very good Toronto Blue Jays are here, before the Astros hit the road for series in Atlanta against the high-quality Braves and then St. Petersburg against those thus far unbeatable Rays. They are all three game series. Anything better than 6-6 would be excellent and have the Astros over .500.
Let's put Jose Abreu under the microscope
It has been a lackluster start for Jose Abreu. It is a nice statistic that Abreu has reached base safely in each of his first 13 games of the season, just over the halfway mark to the franchise record Alex Bregman posted in reaching basely safely in each of his first 25 games played in 2020. Alas, also accurate (and definitely less nice) is that Abreu has not been a good player over his first two weeks wearing Astros uniforms. His batting average is .291, but it’s a lightweight .291 with just two extra base hits (both doubles) and a meager OPS of .666. Defensively, we knew he would not be as good as was Yuli Gurriel. We’re still in the “small sample size” stage of the season, but there are a couple of reasons for genuine concern about the Astros’ new 36-year-old first baseman. First, he’s 36. One never knows when Father Time will make his big move on a player. Second, his power decline could be permanent. Abreu had an overall fine 2022 season, batting .304 with 62 walks adding to a .379 on base percentage. His OPS was a very good .824, but his slugging percentage was a career low .446. Over the last 55 games he played Abreu hit exactly one home run, so despite batting .310 over those 55 games Abreu’s slugging percentage over them was a puny .386. Aledmys Diaz had a .403 slugging percentage last year.
The data on Abreu made clear that he struggled to handle plus-fastballs, think 95 miles per hour and up. Maybe he wore down over the second half as an everyday player at age 35. Still, as a quality hitter Abreu continued getting his hits though just singles and doubles. Well, the wore down element is not in play now. The “uh oh” scenario is that Abreu simply is not as quick to the ball anymore. If he has to cheat on fastballs, meaning start his decision making and swing earlier to catch up to good heat, Abreu becomes more vulnerable to breaking stuff. It’s still just two weeks of the season, but Abreu’s contract rate is notably down from his full-season 2022 numbers. His strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down. Bad combo.
Let’s include a glass half-full aspect to Abreu’s sluggish start. Last year Abreu awoke May 16 with his batting average at .197, his OPS at .594. Very Maldonado-ish. Sometimes a slow start is just a slow start. With a 36-year-old player with some underlying warning signs, the phrase “it bears watching” applies.
Side note on Abreu framed very well I think by a reader/listener/Tweeter. It does seem an odd juxtaposition that the Astros are on record as strongly opposed to an eight years or longer contract for Kyle Tucker (or anyone else) when in Tucker’s case eight years would cover his age 26 through age 33 seasons, but they went three years covering the ages 36, 37, and 38 seasons of a guy who had shown some signs of decline.
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The Houston Astros didn’t just sweep the defending champs this weekend, they changed the tone of their season.
Dominant pitching. Star power. Road swagger. The three-game dismantling of the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine wasn’t about revenge or validation. It was about showing, once and for all, that this version of the Astros, short-handed and all, belongs squarely in the conversation with baseball’s elite.
A statement series
The Astros pitching staff was lights out against one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, holding the Dodgers to just six runs across three games, including two contests where LA managed just a single run. Lance McCullers Jr., much-maligned after getting shelled by the Cubs last week, bounced back in a big way. He worked around four walks, giving up just one run on a solo homer, a much-needed course correction as the Astros evaluate their playoff rotation options.
On the offensive side, the stars delivered in a big way. Jose Altuve torched Dodgers pitching with three home runs, seven RBIs, two walks, and just one strikeout. Christian Walker matched him with six hits of his own, including a pair of long balls and six RBIs.
A shift in expectations?
This wasn’t just a series win. This was a proof of concept.
Houston came into the series already heating up, now they’re officially on fire. Over the last 30 days, the Astros rank third in runs and fifth in RBIs. For the season, they’re top 10 in nearly every key offensive category: eighth in OPS, first in batting average, ninth in slugging. Defensively, the numbers are just as strong. They lead MLB in strikeouts and opponents’ batting average, and rank second in WHIP.
Put it all together, and you’ve got a team with top-five upside in both pitching and offense. The pieces are clicking. The vibes are real. And the Astros suddenly look like a legitimate World Series contender again.
Is help on the way?
Reliever Hector Neris rejoined the team this week, offering a veteran boost to a bullpen that’s been leaned on heavily. Neris brings postseason pedigree and a reputation as a clubhouse leader. The Astros hope a return to familiar surroundings, and the guidance of one of the best pitching development staffs in the league, can get him back on track.
Tayler Scott returns on a minor league deal, and while the move may not turn heads, it adds another layer of depth to a bullpen that’s already one of the league’s best.
Background noise in LA
No Astros-Dodgers series goes by without a little extra noise and this one was no different. During the broadcast, former Cy Young winner and Dodgers analyst Orel Hershiser raised eyebrows by implying that Houston’s offensive surge might not have been entirely on the level.
Predictable? Absolutely. Meaningful? Not even close.
If anything, it’s a weird kind of compliment. No one questions legitimacy when you’re losing. But after a lopsided 18-1 beat down people start reaching for answers, or excuses.
Inside the Astros clubhouse, though, that chatter doesn’t register.
They know exactly what this sweep meant. And so does the rest of the league.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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