THE PALLILOG
Here's why things just got serious for the Houston Astros
Jul 20, 2022, 11:41 am
The Astros are back in action this Thursday against the Yankees. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
Former Houston Astros All-Star shares unique perspective on state of the roster
With the All-Star Game in the rearview mirror, things get serious for the Astros in a hurry. Their break is a day shorter than most because of the schedule insertion of Thursday’s huge split doubleheader against the Yankees. Hey, at least the Astros are home. The Yankees have obviously been the best team in Major League Baseball this season. Their 64-28 record has them on pace to win an absurd 112 games. If they win 112 the Astros have zero chance of catching them for the American League’s best record, and homefield advantage in a tantalizing prospective AL Championship Series matchup. The Yankees are not likely to win 112 but they won’t need that many Ws to secure the top seed. The Astros’ come out of the second half gate with a lustrous 59-32 resume, but that’s four and a half games back of the Yankees.
The Yanks do not have Gerrit Cole pitching either game. He’s not ducking the Astros. Cole pitched Sunday so that ruled him out. Let’s summarize the twin bill outcome possibilities:
Astros sweep! That would have the Yankees in trouble. The Astros would in one day close within two and a half games, clinch the homefield tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series 5-2, while knowing they have the easier schedule the rest of the way because of the three crummy teams in the AL West as opposed to the no bad teams in the East.
Win one, lose one. The Yankees lead would hold at four and a half, but that’s overcome-able (word?) given the schedules. A split would give the Astros the season series over the Yankees 4-3, securing the tiebreaker.
Yankees win, thhhhhe Yankees win twice. The Astros would fall six and a half back. Not total doom but a massive setback, as they would also lose the tiebreaker and suddenly have a modicum of pressure their way heading to Seattle for the weekend. Kudos if you got the John Sterling allusion.
Sleepless in Seattle?
Seattle for the weekend. The Astros AL West lead is a healthy nine games (though down from 13 ½) so they don’t feel hot Mariner breath on the backs of their necks, but my oh my are the Mariners hot. They rampaged to a 14 game winning streak into the All-Star Break. Before it, they won eight of 11 so that’s 22-3 over their last 25 games. Most things have been going well for a team that rips off 22 wins in 25 games, but Seattle’s pitching has been stupendous. The Astros’ bullpen has been the best in the big leagues this year with its 2.66 earned run average. During this 25 game run, the M’s pen ERA is 1.49. The Elias Sports Bureau researched and learned that only three teams previously won even 10 in a row into the break (the first All-Star Game was played in 1933). Those teams won exactly 10 in a row, all went on to win the pennant. Settle down Seattle, you’re quite likely NOT going to the World Series. Neither the 1935 Tigers nor 1945 Cubs had to win any postseason series to reach the World Series. The 1975 Reds had to win one. The Mariners would have to win three as a Wild Card, two if they win the division. Wait, win the division? They are nine games back of the Astros.
The Astros and Mariners play three in the Pacific Northwest this weekend, then have a four game set at Minute Maid Park starting next Thursday. If the M’s won, say, five of the seven, we’d have an unexpected legitimate division race. Conversely, the Astros win four or more of them, back to sleep Seattle. The Mariners’ surge has them in command position for a Wild Card spot. Like the Astros have the schedule edge over the Yankees, the Mariners benefit from AL East cannibalism among the Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox (and Orioles?!?). Yes, the field is watered down with now three Wild Cards per league, but the Mariners last played a playoff game in 2001. Their ongoing drought of 20 years is the longest in big league sports in North America. That season, the Mariners posted their still franchise record 15 game winning streak, en route to an MLB record-tying 116 wins. The Astros try to deny the M’s number 15 in a row Friday night.
The million-dollar question
The prevailing Astro question out of the break…how is Yordan’s right hand? Alvarez went on the injured list and missed the last seven games because of it. Without Alvarez the Astros’ lineup is no better than mediocre. Much lesser but certainly not inconsequential issue, Michael Brantley’s status. Brantley’s ailing right shoulder is the same one that cost him nearly the entire 2016 season. Even with those guys back, General Manager James Click should be pursuing a bat to fortify the lineup (believe I’ve mentioned catcher and/or first base a time or ten). If fantasizing about acquiring Juan Soto from the Nationals, never say never but let's call it highly improbable. Soto can't be a free agent until after the 2024 season, so the Astros wouldn't need to commit a half billion dollars, but the Nats will demand a king's ransom for a superstar who is more than a year younger than Yordan Alvarez. The Astros' farm system is weak, besides, prospects alone won't cut it. Would you consider Luis Garcia, Hunter Brown, and Jeremy Pena for Soto? Even if so that might not be nearly enough. The trade deadline arrives 5PM Houston time a week from Tuesday.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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