ASTROS OUTLOOK

Breaking down what the top seed in the AL will mean for the Astros

Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve of the Astros
The playoffs are just around the corner.Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images.
Sports Illustrated's Ben Reiter who predicted 2017 championship says Astros will win World Series

With 31 games remaining in the regular season for the Houston Astros, it appears that they are marching towards finishing as the top team in the AL, which will secure them home-field advantage in the American League side of the postseason. They sit five games ahead of the Yankees, who have inexplicably boarded a struggle train over the last month, which paired with Houston's light schedule may have put them too far back to come back from to grab the top seed.

This year, the playoffs have been expanded, and the top two teams from each league will sit out a Wild Card round before entering the fray for a traditional ALDS against whoever is left standing. A bye is monumentally advantageous, but how has home-field advantage helped the Astros in recent years?

Getting comfortable at home

Of the remaining 31 games, the Astros will play 18 at home. This season so far, they are better at home by the numbers, though they have been successful on the road as well:

Home: 43-20 record, .253 average, .765 OPS, 2.78 ERA

Away: 41-27 record, .240 average, .721 OPS, 3.27 ERA

If the Astros hold on to that best record in the AL come October 5th, when the regular season ends, the American League will run through Minute Maid Park. It's what teams strive for all year long and why the 162-game grind unfolds to make each game meaningful.

It would be and should be a good development for any team, but interestingly, the Astros have not been as dominant at home in the postseason in recent years as you'd expect. Here are their splits for the last three "regular" postseasons (2020 excluded):

2018: 2-3 home, 2-1 away

2019: 5-5 home, 5-3 away

2021: 5-3 home, 4-4 away

That's one losing record, one winning record, one even record at home across the last three years, and a total record of 12-11 over that span. Digging even deeper into this trend, they are 7-0 at home in ALDS rounds, 4-5 in ALCS rounds, and they went a combined 1-6 at home in the 2019 and 2021 World Series. Each year is certainly different, but this shows that while they typically dominate the first round at home, the home-field advantage appears to dissipate when the competition stiffens, and the playoffs lengthen.

Dissecting this even further, here are the home vs. away splits for these same postseasons:

2021

Home: .272 average, .744 OPS, 4.00 ERA

Away: .249 average, .703 OPS, 4.90 ERA

2019

Home: .229 average, .691 OPS, 4.30 ERA

Away: .239 average, .722 OPS, 3.13 ERA

2018

Home: .274 average, .821 OPS, 4.60 ERA

Away: .238 average, .870 OPS, 3.46 ERA

These numbers, for the most part, align with the resulting records of each year, with Houston doing better all-around at home in 2021 but in the other two seeing better performance on the road. Specifically, it's interesting to look at the ERA disparity in 2018 (1.14 runs worse at home) and 2019 (1.17 runs worse at home) and how it transitioned in 2021 (0.90 runs better at home).

Will pitching be the difference in 2022?

The Astros have built and maintained a very potent offensive core for their team during this dynastic stretch of success in recent years. While injuries and cold periods have caused some concern this season, there should be little doubt that Houston can go toe-to-toe with any team when they are at full strength and playing their best, which they tend to do in the playoffs.

So then, what about the pitching staff? Well, the biggest ace up the sleeve for the Astros this year is they actually have two bona fide aces: Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. Verlander's current injury aside, he is in line to take down another Cy Young Award unless the situation worsens or he completely falls off when he returns.

While it would take a few different scenarios to play out a certain way, even if Verlander didn't win it, the Astros could still see the award come home to Houston with Valdez, who has put together a tremendous stretch of 22 quality starts, the most by a lefty in MLB history. He has blossomed into one of the league's best arms, and having him at that level in the postseason behind Verlander should be as good of a 1-2 punch you could hope for when going to a four-man rotation in the playoffs.

Valdez has, though, done slightly worse at home this season than on the road (3.27 ERA vs. 2.24). However, he currently lines up to have most of his remaining starts at Minute Maid Park to help improve those numbers and get him even more comfortable with the confines of the home ballpark, where he will likely take the ball for Game 2 of the ALDS and hopefully for Houston, in the ALCS and World Series as well.

All told, despite aggregating data that is comprised of an extended cast of players over recent years, it's about this team and this time. With their current performance helping cruise them to another 100-win season, having to overcome some historical struggles at home in big games should be easily attainable and is why the Astros are currently one of the highest favored teams to win it all.

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Stefon Diggs will miss the remainder of the season. Composite Getty Image.

Houston Texans fans have been waiting to hear the latest on the status of wide receiver Stefon Diggs after he left Sunday's game with a knee injury.

We received a disappointing update from Adam Schefter on Tuesday.

Diggs will miss the remainder of the season due to a torn ACL. Fortunately for the Texans, the trade deadline is still a few days away.

If Houston would like to add some depth to the position, Giants WR Darius Slayton would make a lot of sense. He's played well this year (29 rec, 420 yards), and is a free agent after the 2024 season.

So he shouldn't cost too much draft capital if the Texans decide to make a deal.

Panthers receiver Diontae Johnson would have been the obvious choice, but he was just traded to the Ravens.

Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers could be another option. But he's still under contract for the 2025 season, so his price tag may scare off the Texans.

Jets receiver Mike Williams could be under consideration. His role has taken a backseat with the addition of Davante Adams. He has two seasons with over 1,000 yards in his career. He'll be a free agent after the season.

On the low end, Patriots WR KJ Osborn could be another possibility. Osborn is on a one-year deal and only has 7 catches for 57 yards this year.

Osborn recorded over 540 receiving yards in three straight seasons for the Vikings before signing with the Patriots after the 2023 season.

If the Texans decide to hold tight, Nico Collins is expected to return next week for their matchup with the Lions.


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Fans of Houston sports and Houston food can now score tickets to The Tailgate, CultureMap's all-out party devoted to everyone’s favorite way to get in the gameday spirit. The event, presented by Verizon, goes down from 6-9 pm November 11 at 8th Wonder. Find out more about it here.

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