IT'S TIME

Here's why the Astros must be buyers sooner rather than later

Astros Jose Abreu, Jeremy Pena, Dusty Baker
It's time to make some moves. Composite Getty Images.
jj astros

Talking to a friend, big Astros fan, the other day. I asked, so what do you think the Astros should do before the trade deadline August 1?

He said, “Why do you think the Astros need to make any moves? They had a rough start but they’ve been winning lately. They’re going to make the playoffs (if the season ended today, the Astros would have a wild card). Why change things when they’re winning?”

Why? I’ll tell you why. It was that great relationship expert Woody Allen who said, “A relationship is like a shark. It has to constantly move forward or it dies.”

The Astros currently are 36-27, in second place in the American League West, trailing the Texas Rangers by 5 games. The Astros also are behind their World Series pace from last year. They’re hardly a dead shark, but they’re not exactly Neptune ruling the ocean, either.

The Rangers smell blood. You can count on them to make bold moves to slay the great white Astros at the trade deadline.

The Astros do need to make a move, or moves, to challenge for a World Series repeat. There are two big sore thumbs sticking out in the Astros lineup: first base and catcher. Plus they need a veteran starting pitcher or two.

We don’t have to state the obvious about first base. Jose Abreu has been a disaster all season and he’s actually getting worse. He’s hitting .217. That’s below average and unacceptable for a player who was supposed to bat cleanup this year and make fans forget popular Yuli Gurriel.

Stop saying “Abreu always starts slow, it’s a long season, he’ll turn it around.” The Astros have played 63 games, that’s well more than one-third of the season. Abreu has shown no signs of turning anything around. Except turning back to the dugout after striking out. He’s 36 years old. Some players get old overnight.

More than 50 percent of marriages in America end in divorce. The Astros need to leave Abreu for a younger player.

Mauricio Dubon, 28, is batting.304. He’s been the Astros most consistent hitter all season, mostly playing second base. But with Jose Altuve back from injury, Dubon is left without a position to call his own. It doesn’t matter where, but he needs to stay in the lineup. Fans would welcome a Dubon move to first base.

Catcher Martin Maldonado is popular with fans and we get it – pitchers love him behind the plate. Manager Dusty Baker raves about Maldonado’s skill at calling a game.

Despite a recent hot streak at the plate that pushed his batting average over .200, Maldonado, 36, is back below the Mendoza Line. Between Abreu at first and Maldonado behind the plate, the Astros essentially are playing seven against nine on offense.

Meanwhile, backup catcher Yainer Diaz is hitting .273 and, when he gets a rare start at catcher, is throwing out potential base stealers at a rate exceeding Maldonado. He has a stronger arm than Maldonado and his pop time (the time it takes between a pitch hitting the catcher’s mitt and arriving at the fielder at second base) is fourth fastest in the American League. Baker says Diaz needs more experience at calling pitches and controlling a game. Well, he won’t gain that experience on the bench.

New general manager Dana Brown has made it clear that he would like to see more of Diaz at catcher or at first or designated hitter. He’s also made it clear that Dusty Baker makes out the lineup card. Last year, general manager James Click and Baker didn’t see eye to eye on personnel. Now Click is gone. Brown is smart. He’s also patient.

After a long run making all the right moves, the Astros didn’t have a genius offseason following last year’s World Series. Their big signings were Abreu (enough said) and extending reliever Rafael Montero for $34.5 million over three years. Montero is 1-3 with a 5.96 earned run average this season. His ERA his last 15 games is 8.59.

The Astros also signed Michael Brantley for $12 million. He hasn’t played a game this season and there’s no word when, really if, he’ll be back.

To be fair, when the Astros announced that they signed Abreu, fans were excited and started making travel plans for the 2023 World Series. But you know what they say about best laid plans.

In fact, the Astros best offseason move was the one they didn’t make – not making a serious attempt at re-signing Justin Verlander for stupid money. JV was 18-4 with a 1.76 ERA for the Astros last season. This year, the suddenly 40-year-old is 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA for the Mets.

Wednesday night, the Astros lineup had Corey Julks in left, Dubon at short, Diaz at catcher, Grae Kessinger at third and Ronel Blanco on the mound. These aren’t your grandfather’s Astros. These aren’t last year’s Astros.

It’s amazing the Astros are staying above water with all their injuries this season. Last year’s starting pitching has been decimated by injuries and departures. Verlander gone, Jose Urquidy out, Luis Garcia out, Lance McCullers stuck on the injured list. Nobody expected that 2023’s rotation would be held together by silly string, bubblegum and unexpectedly strong performances by J.P. France, Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco, and Hunter Brown, and their most effective reliever would be Phil Maton. So far, so good, but do you want to bank the rest of the season on them?

We’ve been hearing, “the Astros don’t need to make roster moves because Urquidy, Brantley and McCullers will be back – that’ll be like adding three veteran players at the deadline.”

Fans can keep counting on those medical miracles, but in the meantime they need to make changes and additions. And no use waiting for the trade deadline.

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
The Chiefs are favored by nine points. Composite Getty Image.

If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.

The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.

Back to the present

Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.

Still standing

Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.

*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills with a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome