How latest Astros news reveals puzzling path forward for Houston

Facts not noise

How latest Astros news reveals puzzling path forward for Houston
What in the world is going on? Composite Getty Image.

Over the weekend, reports surfaced about the Astros circling back to the Cardinals about a potential trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado after Alex Bregman agreed to a contract with the Red Sox.

Shortly thereafter, The Athletic reported that the talks haven't gained any “traction” and no trade is expected to take place in the near future. (Thank goodness).

There's also the issue of Arenado's no-trade clause, further complicating the issue. However, the most notable information to takeaway from these reports has to be Houston's comfort (or lack there of) with their current roster.

Not only does this signal concern about the state of the infield, but it also shows how serious the Astros are about Jose Altuve playing a significant amount of time in left field.

According to MLB.com, had the deal originally gone down, the Astros would have been on the hook for Arenado's three-year contract that would cost Houston between $40-45 million after the Cardinals ate part of the salary.

Despite St. Louis kicking in part of the money, trading for Arenado would push the Astros past the competitive balance tax, something many believe owner Jim Crane was looking to avoid.

Considering Arenado's rapid regression in 2024, it's hard to imagine why Houston's front office would even entertain this move. Did they not learn anything from the Jose Abreu contract?

Arenado will play this season at 34 years old, and Houston would be stuck with his contract through his age 36 season. Sounds familiar. To make matters worse, Arenado's advanced stats are even more concerning.

Last season his bat speed was below average, and he recorded his career-worst stats in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and slugging. And get this, he only had 39 extra-base hits in 2024 over 152 games played.

In 2023 with Houston, Abreu had 42 extra-base hits. But that's just part of the issue. Many Astros fans are begging for Arenado to join the team because he's a much better option than Mauricio Dubon.

The thought being Isaac Paredes would move to second base, with Arenado playing third, pushing Dubon to a utility role. Be careful what you wish for, Astros fans.

When Dubon received regular playing time in 2023 while Jose Altuve was out with a broken thumb, he posted 39 extra-base hits, the same number as Arenado last season. But Dubon was able to do that playing in 20 fewer games! Dubon also slugged .411 compared to Arenado's .394.

Why would the Astros pay Arenado roughly $15 million per season when he's arguably no better than the much cheaper, (and younger) Dubon? Makes zero sense. When a player shows you they're declining, believe them!

Can the Astros avoid another slow start?

The Astros had a huge hole to dig out of last year after a disastrous start to the season. They managed to prove a lot of haters wrong and finish with another division title, but it wasn't easy.

The two things they really struggled with were manufacturing runs late in games, and bullpen meltdowns. When looking at the current roster, are they better positioned this year to avoid stumbling out of the gate?

Be sure to watch the video above as we also address MLB's new challenge system, what's going on with Jim Crane, and much more!

The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!


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The Dodgers host the Astros this weekend! Composite Getty Image.
  • It’s the first place Houston Astros against the first place Los Angeles Dodgers as they open their latest head-to-head series. This is not a recording. The two most dominant powers in the sport over the last decade gather at Dodger Stadium this Independence Day weekend. The Astros have a sizable lead in pursuit of their eighth American League West championship in the last nine years. The Dodgers have an even more sizable lead as they chase their fourth straight National League West crown, which would be their 12th in 13 years. Each franchise has won two World Series in that time frame, each has lost two. All Astro and Dodger parties would sign off immediately on a 2025 World Series matchup. This three-game set carries no big picture significance, but every game counts, and it’s just fun seeing these two get after it. It would be more fun if the Astros had Yordan Alvarez available. Then again, the Dodgers won’t have Josh Fields.

Both continue to roll along despite rashes of injuries. When the Astros awoke May 24 their record sat at 26-25. Since then they have gone 26-10. That is a dominant stretch despite this clearly not being a dominant team. The still Alvarez-less offense is mediocre. So is the starting pitching apart from the one-two awesome punch that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been. When Brown or Valdez has been the Astros’ starting pitcher this season, the team record is 25-9. With anyone else making the start, 27-26. They have been every bit as dynamic a duo so far in 2025 that Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were for the Astros in 2019 when Verlander edged out Cole to win his third Cy Young Award. Brown is a lock to be named to his first American League All-Star team this Sunday. Valdez is worthy of a third consecutive selection but could get caught in a numbers squeeze. Eight or nine starting pitchers are picked for each league.

The Dodgers won’t face Brown this weekend, but will have to deal with Valdez on Saturday night. His mound counterpart will be Shohei Ohtani. Oooooooh! Framber didn’t give up a run in 13 innings over his last two starts, and over his last 10 outings has a super-spiffy 1.72 earned run average. The amazing Ohtani is easing back into pitching after his second Tommy John surgery. Ohtani has started three games, totaling just four innings. He has yet to throw 30 pitches in an outing. Saturday he probably will be allowed 30 to 40.

Arms race

While Friday’s outing isn’t remotely a make or break start for Lance McCullers, it does speak to a significant question the Astros hope to find a pleasing answer to over the remainder of the regular season. Who is their third starting pitcher in a playoff series? After Brown and Valdez there is simply no one who inspires confidence at this point. McCullers has been awful his last two times out, jacking up his ERA to 6.61 eight starts into his season. 20 walks issued in 32 2 /3 innings pitched is glaringly bad. McCullers is still reasonably in ramp up mode, but given his injury history along with performance concerns, the third starter spot can’t be considered his to lose. Spencer Arrighetti’s resume is thin but his return at the level he pitched at after the All-Star break last season would be massive. Colt Gordon and Brandon Walter have both done some nice fill-in work, but no one plausibly wants them starting what would be a do or die game if the Astros wind up in a game three of a best-of-three Wild Card series.

Historic achievement

Not as if it’s subplot or anything this weekend, but let’s call it notable that the two active career hits leaders in Major League Baseball share the field this weekend. Jose Altuve this week vaulted past Jeff Bagwell for second in Astros’ history behind Craig Biggio. Altuve enters the weekend 743 hits behind Biggio. He is no lock to catch him before Altuve’s five-year contract expires at the end of the 2029 season. Altuve will be 39 then. Biggio was 41 when he rapped his 3000th hit, then added 60 more before beginning the waiting game for election to the Hall of Fame.

Like Biggio got and presumably someday Altuve will get, Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman will get the call from Cooperstown some day. Like Altuve, Freeman is 35 years old, has won a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove, and with his selection this week been named an All-Star nine times. Aaron Judge may change this in the next couple of years, but among active players only Mike Trout (by a long shot) has compiled more Baseball-Reference offensive Wins Above Replacement than Freeman (second) and Altuve (third).

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch! 

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*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information! 

https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise

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