THE PALLILOG
How Astros next foe reinforces Houston's big picture formula
Apr 6, 2023, 1:02 pm
The Astros are heading to Minnesota to face Carlos Correa and the Twins. Photo by Mandato/Getty Images.
The Astros’ first road trip of the season has three games at Minnesota, then three at Pittsburgh. It follows a not good opening homestand. It wasn’t awful, it’s not remotely season-shaping, but for the Astros any losing homestand is a bad one, so 3-4 is bad. Both the Twins and Pirates went 4-2 in the season’s first week. Big deal. Good teams have bad weeks and bad teams have good weeks. The Twins could be pretty good. The Pirates almost definitely will again be very bad.
Any concern with the Astros’ offense in the early going must be hedged with the fact that Jose Altuve is out of the lineup. Throw out the 2020 60 game COVID season in which Altuve was awful, and he has posted an OPS of at least .837 six consecutive seasons. You are just not going to replace that without skipping some beats. To a lesser extent the same is true about Michael Brantley. It’s still a capable lineup, just taken down a couple of pegs. Yordan Alvarez’s hand evidently is juuuuuuust fine. Kyle Tucker appears primed for a huge season. Jose Abreu has a hit in all seven games.
Alex Bregman is off to an unfortunately characteristic slow start. 0 for sixteen with seven strikeouts slow before he finally produced three singles Monday. Seven games in Bregman is batting .138 with zero extra base hits. That’s the bad news. The good news is we can be pretty sure that at 29 years old Bregman isn’t suddenly washed up. Unbold prediction: he doesn’t go all season without a double or home run. No triple, maybe. Breggy’s last three bagger was in 2020.
One shaky turn through the starting rotation and at least one ineffective outing already from all four of the returning 2022 bullpen studs (Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Ryne Stanek. Bryan Abreu, and if you like you can add Hector Neris) isn’t a feel good prescription, but should not cause night sweats. A rough week in June or July is just that. A rough week the first week of the season is the resume to date and naturally lends itself to overreaction by caring if sometimes irrational fans. If the Astros’ starting pitchers make it a long term routine to more often than not get no outs beyond the fifth inning, then yes they will have a problem. There just isn’t reason to expect that. Framber Valdez is two for two in good outings. Cristian Javier hasn’t dominated in either of his first two starts, who thinks it’s not coming? Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy are solid mid to back of rotation starters. The lone real question mark is Hunter Brown, who will have to pitch with better command to thrive as a big league starter. The Astros gave up at least three runs in each of their first six games. Only once in all of 2022 did they have a longer stretch giving up three-plus. It was eight straight games. It happened last April. Things turned out okay.
The Astros spend the weekend in the Land of 10,000 Lakes (actually close to 12 thousand), Minnesota. Other than for the sake of Twins’ home field advantage, the imploded Metrodome was a lousy place for Major League Baseball. It did prevent snowouts however. Target Field does not, so with the Thursday forecast of snow and temperature in the 30s during the day and temp down to near 20 Thursday night, the Astros get their first off day one day early. This is why Friday was originally slotted as an off day, giving the Twins a fallback for their home opener. The Friday, Saturday, Sunday Minneapolis forecast is beautiful.
The Twins are out of the shoot at 4-2 having swept three from royally crummy Kansas City, then dropping two out of three at Miami. Carlos Correa is off to a slow start to his second season as a Twin. Correa is batting .208 one week in after his offseason free agency saga. He agreed to a 13 year 350 million dollar contract with the Giants before they flunked him on his physical because of long term concerns with Correa’s lower right leg and ankle. Correa then pivoted to a 12 year 300 million dollar deal with the Mets, before they flunked him over the same concerns. No pity party is warranted for Correa settling for a six year 200 million dollar remarriage with the Twins. Still, while a very pleasant climate through the summer months and with a decent team around him, no way was Minneapolis Minnesota the market where Correa hoped to play however many years remain in his prime. Over his first three seasons with the Twins, Correa will pull down a little under 102 million dollars. Over those same three years the Astros will pay Jeremy Pena under three million, unless they enter into an early contract extension which pays more. Again: Correa approximately 102 mil, Pena approximately 3. Correa was the better player last season and the odds favor him being so this season, but not lopsidedly.
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A new challenge awaits, and the Astros know what’s at stake
Jun 27, 2025, 2:05 pm
The Houston Astros didn’t just sweep the Philadelphia Phillies. They sent a message.
In three tightly contested games against one of the best teams in baseball, the Astros leaned on their elite pitching and timely offense to secure a statement sweep. Hunter Brown was electric in the finale, shutting down the Phillies’ lineup and showing the kind of dominance that’s become a defining feature of his game. Bryan Abreu slammed the door with four strikeouts to close out the win, and rookie Cam Smith delivered the deciding blow — an RBI single in the eighth to drive in Isaac Paredes, lifting the Astros to a 2-1 victory.
It wasn’t a series filled with offensive fireworks, but that’s exactly the point. Both teams sent out top-tier pitching throughout the series, and Houston was the team that kept finding a way. For much of the season, the Astros’ inconsistent offense might’ve been a concern in a series like this. But this time, it felt different. The bats showed up just enough, and the pitching did the rest.
Now, with Houston on pace for 96 wins at the halfway point, the question becomes: Is the league officially on notice?
Maybe. Maybe not. But one thing is certain, the Astros have the third-best record in baseball, they’re 17-7 in one-run games, and they’re playing with the kind of rhythm that’s defined their near-decade of dominance. Unlike last year’s uneven campaign, this version of the Astros looks like a team that’s rediscovered its edge. Whether or not they need to take care of business against the Cubs to validate it, their recent run leaves little doubt: when Houston is clicking, there are very few teams built to stop them.
Off the field, however, a bit of long-term uncertainty is starting to creep in. Reports surfaced this week that extension talks with shortstop Jeremy Peña have been put on hold as he recently signed with super-agent Scott Boras. The combination has led many to wonder if Peña might follow the same free-agent path as Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and others before him. Boras clients rarely settle early, and Peña, now one of the most valuable shortstops in the game, could command a price tag the Astros have historically avoided paying.
If Peña and even Hunter Brown are likely to get priced out of Houston, the front office may need to pivot. Isaac Paredes could be the most logical extension candidate on the roster. His approach — particularly his ability to pull the ball with authority — is tailor-made for Daikin Park and the Crawford Boxes. Last year, Paredes struggled to leave the yard at Wrigley Field, but in Houston, he’s thriving. Locking him in long term would give the Astros offensive stability and the kind of value they’ve typically targeted.
As for Cam Smith, the breakout rookie is far from free agency and will remain a cost-controlled piece for years. That’s exactly why his contributions now, like his clutch eighth-inning knock to beat Philadelphia, matter so much. He's one more reason why the Astros don’t just look good right now. They look dangerous.
And the rest of the league is starting to feel it.
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