THE PALLILOG
How Astros next foe reinforces Houston's big picture formula
Apr 6, 2023, 1:02 pm
The Astros are heading to Minnesota to face Carlos Correa and the Twins. Photo by Mandato/Getty Images.
The Astros’ first road trip of the season has three games at Minnesota, then three at Pittsburgh. It follows a not good opening homestand. It wasn’t awful, it’s not remotely season-shaping, but for the Astros any losing homestand is a bad one, so 3-4 is bad. Both the Twins and Pirates went 4-2 in the season’s first week. Big deal. Good teams have bad weeks and bad teams have good weeks. The Twins could be pretty good. The Pirates almost definitely will again be very bad.
Any concern with the Astros’ offense in the early going must be hedged with the fact that Jose Altuve is out of the lineup. Throw out the 2020 60 game COVID season in which Altuve was awful, and he has posted an OPS of at least .837 six consecutive seasons. You are just not going to replace that without skipping some beats. To a lesser extent the same is true about Michael Brantley. It’s still a capable lineup, just taken down a couple of pegs. Yordan Alvarez’s hand evidently is juuuuuuust fine. Kyle Tucker appears primed for a huge season. Jose Abreu has a hit in all seven games.
Alex Bregman is off to an unfortunately characteristic slow start. 0 for sixteen with seven strikeouts slow before he finally produced three singles Monday. Seven games in Bregman is batting .138 with zero extra base hits. That’s the bad news. The good news is we can be pretty sure that at 29 years old Bregman isn’t suddenly washed up. Unbold prediction: he doesn’t go all season without a double or home run. No triple, maybe. Breggy’s last three bagger was in 2020.
One shaky turn through the starting rotation and at least one ineffective outing already from all four of the returning 2022 bullpen studs (Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Ryne Stanek. Bryan Abreu, and if you like you can add Hector Neris) isn’t a feel good prescription, but should not cause night sweats. A rough week in June or July is just that. A rough week the first week of the season is the resume to date and naturally lends itself to overreaction by caring if sometimes irrational fans. If the Astros’ starting pitchers make it a long term routine to more often than not get no outs beyond the fifth inning, then yes they will have a problem. There just isn’t reason to expect that. Framber Valdez is two for two in good outings. Cristian Javier hasn’t dominated in either of his first two starts, who thinks it’s not coming? Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy are solid mid to back of rotation starters. The lone real question mark is Hunter Brown, who will have to pitch with better command to thrive as a big league starter. The Astros gave up at least three runs in each of their first six games. Only once in all of 2022 did they have a longer stretch giving up three-plus. It was eight straight games. It happened last April. Things turned out okay.
The Astros spend the weekend in the Land of 10,000 Lakes (actually close to 12 thousand), Minnesota. Other than for the sake of Twins’ home field advantage, the imploded Metrodome was a lousy place for Major League Baseball. It did prevent snowouts however. Target Field does not, so with the Thursday forecast of snow and temperature in the 30s during the day and temp down to near 20 Thursday night, the Astros get their first off day one day early. This is why Friday was originally slotted as an off day, giving the Twins a fallback for their home opener. The Friday, Saturday, Sunday Minneapolis forecast is beautiful.
The Twins are out of the shoot at 4-2 having swept three from royally crummy Kansas City, then dropping two out of three at Miami. Carlos Correa is off to a slow start to his second season as a Twin. Correa is batting .208 one week in after his offseason free agency saga. He agreed to a 13 year 350 million dollar contract with the Giants before they flunked him on his physical because of long term concerns with Correa’s lower right leg and ankle. Correa then pivoted to a 12 year 300 million dollar deal with the Mets, before they flunked him over the same concerns. No pity party is warranted for Correa settling for a six year 200 million dollar remarriage with the Twins. Still, while a very pleasant climate through the summer months and with a decent team around him, no way was Minneapolis Minnesota the market where Correa hoped to play however many years remain in his prime. Over his first three seasons with the Twins, Correa will pull down a little under 102 million dollars. Over those same three years the Astros will pay Jeremy Pena under three million, unless they enter into an early contract extension which pays more. Again: Correa approximately 102 mil, Pena approximately 3. Correa was the better player last season and the odds favor him being so this season, but not lopsidedly.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
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