EVERY-THING SPORTS
It's hard to ignore the familiar vibes Astros' Justin Verlander is giving off right now
Aug 24, 2022, 11:54 am
We're witnessing something very special with Verlander.Composite image by Jack Brame.
These eye-popping stats frame up why this season could be special for Verlander's Astros legacy
Sports science and medicine have seen some scary improvements. ACL, Achilles, and Tommy John surgeries usually meant the end of a career. Then it meant you'd never be the same, but could still play. Now, it's a blip on the radar screen or something that should be monitored. Athletes are now more in tune with their bodies and the rigors of their seasons. They now diet and train specifically for their sports and the particular positions they play. Gone are the days of smoking cigarettes at halftime (RIP Len Dawson), waiting until camp to get into shape, and playing multiple sports at a high level.
One guy at the forefront of this movement has been Tom Brady. His TB12 brand is more than another athlete peddling his merch. It's also a fitness and lifestyle brand that encourages people to live a healthier life that he's developed in conjunction with his personal trainer Alex Guerrero. To say it's worked would be an understatement. Brady, 45, is entering his 23rd year playing the most important position in football and is doing so at a very high level. He's still considered one of the best at his position in the league.
Justin Verlander is MLB's Tom Brady. Verlander, 39, is the AL Cy Young leading candidate. 16-3, a 1.87 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, 149 innings pitched, and 148 Ks in 23 starts. Those aren't just Cy Young numbers, they're the numbers of a pitcher who should be considered for AL MVP as well. Did I mention he's coming off Tommy John surgery and only pitched six innings the last two years?
Like Brady, Verlander has been doing this a very long time. He's gone 15 years between his first and last All Star appearances (nine overall), eight years between his two Cy Young award wins, and went 12 years between his first & last no-hitters (three overall). When he re-signed for two years $50 million (player option for next season), some were skeptical. I was not one of them. This guy is a pro's pro and knows how to pitch. He also knows his body, which is why he and the team decided he needed to come out after throwing six no-hit innings (91 pitches, 10Ks) in his last start against the Twins. If you look at the stats and science, pitchers coming off Tommy John shouldn't throw more than 150-160 innings. Verlander is fully expected to shatter that notion. He's the exception, not the rule.
Guys like this don't come around anymore. Gone are the days of starting pitchers throwing 180-200+ innings (per season) of high quality baseball over the course of their careers. In his previous 17 seasons, the only times Verlander hasn't thrown more than 180 innings: 2005 he pitched in 2 games (didn't qualify as a rookie), 2015 he started on the injured list, 2020 he threw six innings in one start and missed the 2021 season with the surgery/recovery.
When he inevitably opts out and looks to re-sign, Jim Crane and James Click need to give him another blank check. I don't care what it costs. You cannot put a value on a guy you know will take the ball every fifth day, throw at least 180 innings every year, and give you a chance to win every time he takes the mound. He and his wife love it here. He won his only ring here. Fans, teammates, and media all universally love him. He's a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer. Let's make sure it's an Astros hat on that plaque.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.