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It's hard to ignore the familiar vibes Astros' Justin Verlander is giving off right now
Aug 24, 2022, 11:54 am
We're witnessing something very special with Verlander.Composite image by Jack Brame.
These eye-popping stats frame up why this season could be special for Verlander's Astros legacy
Sports science and medicine have seen some scary improvements. ACL, Achilles, and Tommy John surgeries usually meant the end of a career. Then it meant you'd never be the same, but could still play. Now, it's a blip on the radar screen or something that should be monitored. Athletes are now more in tune with their bodies and the rigors of their seasons. They now diet and train specifically for their sports and the particular positions they play. Gone are the days of smoking cigarettes at halftime (RIP Len Dawson), waiting until camp to get into shape, and playing multiple sports at a high level.
One guy at the forefront of this movement has been Tom Brady. His TB12 brand is more than another athlete peddling his merch. It's also a fitness and lifestyle brand that encourages people to live a healthier life that he's developed in conjunction with his personal trainer Alex Guerrero. To say it's worked would be an understatement. Brady, 45, is entering his 23rd year playing the most important position in football and is doing so at a very high level. He's still considered one of the best at his position in the league.
Justin Verlander is MLB's Tom Brady. Verlander, 39, is the AL Cy Young leading candidate. 16-3, a 1.87 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, 149 innings pitched, and 148 Ks in 23 starts. Those aren't just Cy Young numbers, they're the numbers of a pitcher who should be considered for AL MVP as well. Did I mention he's coming off Tommy John surgery and only pitched six innings the last two years?
Like Brady, Verlander has been doing this a very long time. He's gone 15 years between his first and last All Star appearances (nine overall), eight years between his two Cy Young award wins, and went 12 years between his first & last no-hitters (three overall). When he re-signed for two years $50 million (player option for next season), some were skeptical. I was not one of them. This guy is a pro's pro and knows how to pitch. He also knows his body, which is why he and the team decided he needed to come out after throwing six no-hit innings (91 pitches, 10Ks) in his last start against the Twins. If you look at the stats and science, pitchers coming off Tommy John shouldn't throw more than 150-160 innings. Verlander is fully expected to shatter that notion. He's the exception, not the rule.
Guys like this don't come around anymore. Gone are the days of starting pitchers throwing 180-200+ innings (per season) of high quality baseball over the course of their careers. In his previous 17 seasons, the only times Verlander hasn't thrown more than 180 innings: 2005 he pitched in 2 games (didn't qualify as a rookie), 2015 he started on the injured list, 2020 he threw six innings in one start and missed the 2021 season with the surgery/recovery.
When he inevitably opts out and looks to re-sign, Jim Crane and James Click need to give him another blank check. I don't care what it costs. You cannot put a value on a guy you know will take the ball every fifth day, throw at least 180 innings every year, and give you a chance to win every time he takes the mound. He and his wife love it here. He won his only ring here. Fans, teammates, and media all universally love him. He's a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer. Let's make sure it's an Astros hat on that plaque.
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The Astros closed out their latest road trip with a winning record, a feat made more impressive considering the turbulence at the back of the rotation. Brandon Walter and Ryan Gusto both endured rough outings, with Walter in particular getting tagged hard. Still, Houston salvaged the finale, thanks largely to Mauricio Dubón’s breakout performance. The utilityman launched two home runs to power an offense that’s quietly been heating up for weeks.
But even with a solid finish, not everything is trending upward.
Josh Hader, who’s been one of the game’s most reliable closers this season, has begun to show signs of vulnerability. He’s allowed a home run in three of his last six outings. While his overall numbers remain strong, the long ball—a problem that plagued him last year—is starting to creep back into the picture.
As the Astros return home, the schedule offers no breather. They’ll face the Phillies and Cubs before a brief trip to Colorado to take on the struggling Rockies. After that comes a marquee series against the defending champion Dodgers in Los Angeles. With three of their next four opponents being legitimate World Series threats, the coming stretch looms large.
Can the bats keep pace?
If the last month is any indication, the Astros have reason to feel optimistic. Christian Walker has started to show signs of life after a quiet start to the season, hitting .260 with a .762 OPS and five home runs over the past 30 days. José Altuve has been scorching with a .302 average and .901 OPS in that span, while Jeremy Peña has taken things to another level, batting .384 with a 1.009 OPS.
As a team, the Astros rank 7th in OPS, 5th in runs, 3rd in batting average, and 7th in home runs over the last 30 days. It’s a surge that’s come at the right time—and one they’ll need to sustain.
The injury picture is also starting to shift in Houston’s favor.
Cristian Javier threw a 20-pitch live BP today in West Palm Beach. According to Joe Espada, he was up to 95 mph.
Luis Garcia should throw a live BP next week.
Spencer Arrighetti is still not throwing off a mound yet.
Yordan Alvarez has not resumed hitting.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 20, 2025
Joe Espada told The Athletic's Chandler Rome that Christian Javier recently threw a live batting practice session, touching 95 mph as he continues his return from Tommy John surgery. JP France has thrown multiple live BPs and could be ready to help if things continue to progress with his shoulder. Luis Garcia, however, remains further away despite undergoing surgery more than two years ago. He's expected to throw a live BP this week.
Spencer Arrighetti (thumb) should be able to return in August, and Lance McCullers has resumed throwing and is currently on the 15-day IL with a foot sprain.
The Astros are winning. The offense is rolling. The reinforcements are on the way. But with a brutal stretch looming, the team’s margin for error is about to be put to the test.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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