Let’s cover this at the top. Momentum is a zero factor going into the postseason. It’s an even sillier concept with the Astros having to deal with a best-of-three Wild Card Series just to get to the Divisional Series before ideally getting a crack at an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series. It wouldn’t matter if the Astros (or any other team) rode a 20 game winning streak or 20 game losing streak to the end of the regular season. Either streak would be quite a pre-series storyline, but would be utterly immaterial. Momentum is something a team has until it doesn’t. It merely describes the status of the moment. It can turn on a dime, it can end in a heartbeat. Game-by-game, inning-by-inning, or on a single pitch/swing.

Health on the other hand, is a huge factor. Yordan Alvarez’s status is very much up in the air because of his right knee sprain. Silly folks might say that without Yordan the Astros would be doomed. That’s absurd. It’s not how baseball works. How did the Astros fare over three months without their best player this season (Kyle Tucker)? Slack can be picked up, even more so within a shorter stretch of games. Of course a sidelined Yordan would weaken the Astros’ lineup significantly and make them less likely to advance, but that his absence couldn’t be overcome is preposterous. The Astros also could be eliminated in a hurry at full strength. On the plus side of the health spectrum, Alex Bregman’s elbow seems to have settled down. Though having the worst full season of his career Bregman is still a good player and a vital cog. He’s swinging the bat pretty well (three home runs in the last seven games) and his defense is stellar.

You never know where the biggest difference making performances will come from in a postseason series or postseason overall. You count on the biggest stars shining. Sometimes they do sometimes they don’t. Jeremy Pena has been an absolutely mediocre offensive player over his three seasons in the big leagues. But in the 2022 postseason he was a superstar. Last season Adolis Garcia was very good for the Texas Rangers. In the ALCS against the Astros he morphed into Hank Aaron.

Whether swinging a tired bat or merely slumping, Jose Altuve needs some rejuvenation before Tuesday gets here. Over his last 12 games Altuve is nine for 51. That’s a .177 batting average. Just one double, one home run, and three walks over those 12 games makes for a .491 OPS. Altuve has had a fine season, but decline in his game at 34 years old is clear. Altuve’s 117 strikeouts obliterate his previous career worst total of 91. In Cleveland this weekend Altuve needs to go six for seven or better, seven for ten or better, or eight for 13 or better to finish with the eighth .300 or better batting average of his sensational career.

Consider if at the end of spring training I presented the following to you as facts-to-be ahead of the final weekend of the regular season: Excepting the short-COVID 2020 season Altuve will have his worst season since 2013. Bregman will post the worst full-season stats of his career. Kyle Tucker will miss almost half the season to a broken leg. Chas McCormick’s quality play will disintegrate into a near season-long slump. Justin Verlander will win four games. Those four will be one more than Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers win combined. The Astros will be 17-27 in one-run games. In games tied after seven innings their record will be 5-13. In games tied after eight they will be 8-14. In extra-inning games they will be 6-10. Not one time all season will they win a game they trail after eight innings, they will be 0-56 in them.

Those are ALL facts about the 2024 Astros. And here they are prepping for yet another postseason. Being in a crummy AL West was a boon to the cause, but it’s still remarkable.

So which team is showing up to take its shot at the Astros in the lightning round best-of-three Wild Card Series? Outcomes are never a certainty, but the Detroit Tigers finishing their schedule with three games at home against the worst team in MLB history post-1900 (Chicago White Sox) gives A.J. Hinch’s club a clear path to the Tigers’ first postseason appearance since 2014. If the Tigers clinch before Sunday they don’t have to use sure-fire AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal that day, and would have him good to go in game one of the Wild Card series. That would make the Tigers the least preferable of the possible Astros’ opponents. If Skubal has to pitch Sunday, the only way he’d be available against the Astros would be on three days’ rest in a decisive game three (if necessary). If the Tigers and Kansas City Royals finish tied for the last two Wild Card berths the Astros play the Tigers.

That is not saying the Astros getting the Royals would be anything approaching a bye. For openers the Royals would have the best player on the field in presumptive AL Most Valuable Player Award runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals snapped a seven-game losing streak Tuesday. They face a tough closing series in Atlanta with the Braves still alive for an NL Wild Card. If they get to Houston, the Royals have excellent starting pitching. Their bad bullpen would be boosted by moving two starters to that pen. The Minnesota Twins are staggering, but close at home against the Baltimore Orioles who have basically nothing to play for in that series. If the Twins climb into a tie with either or both Detroit and K.C., the Twins win all tiebreakers.

Seattle is mathematically alive but the Mariners lose tiebreakers to everybody and essentially need a miracle to return to Houston next week.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday). There will be extra editions during the postseason. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.