Astros Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Jon Singleton

The playoffs are right around the corner! Composite Getty Image.

Let’s cover this at the top. Momentum is a zero factor going into the postseason. It’s an even sillier concept with the Astros having to deal with a best-of-three Wild Card Series just to get to the Divisional Series before ideally getting a crack at an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series. It wouldn’t matter if the Astros (or any other team) rode a 20 game winning streak or 20 game losing streak to the end of the regular season. Either streak would be quite a pre-series storyline, but would be utterly immaterial. Momentum is something a team has until it doesn’t. It merely describes the status of the moment. It can turn on a dime, it can end in a heartbeat. Game-by-game, inning-by-inning, or on a single pitch/swing.

Health on the other hand, is a huge factor. Yordan Alvarez’s status is very much up in the air because of his right knee sprain. Silly folks might say that without Yordan the Astros would be doomed. That’s absurd. It’s not how baseball works. How did the Astros fare over three months without their best player this season (Kyle Tucker)? Slack can be picked up, even more so within a shorter stretch of games. Of course a sidelined Yordan would weaken the Astros’ lineup significantly and make them less likely to advance, but that his absence couldn’t be overcome is preposterous. The Astros also could be eliminated in a hurry at full strength. On the plus side of the health spectrum, Alex Bregman’s elbow seems to have settled down. Though having the worst full season of his career Bregman is still a good player and a vital cog. He’s swinging the bat pretty well (three home runs in the last seven games) and his defense is stellar.

You never know where the biggest difference making performances will come from in a postseason series or postseason overall. You count on the biggest stars shining. Sometimes they do sometimes they don’t. Jeremy Pena has been an absolutely mediocre offensive player over his three seasons in the big leagues. But in the 2022 postseason he was a superstar. Last season Adolis Garcia was very good for the Texas Rangers. In the ALCS against the Astros he morphed into Hank Aaron.

Whether swinging a tired bat or merely slumping, Jose Altuve needs some rejuvenation before Tuesday gets here. Over his last 12 games Altuve is nine for 51. That’s a .177 batting average. Just one double, one home run, and three walks over those 12 games makes for a .491 OPS. Altuve has had a fine season, but decline in his game at 34 years old is clear. Altuve’s 117 strikeouts obliterate his previous career worst total of 91. In Cleveland this weekend Altuve needs to go six for seven or better, seven for ten or better, or eight for 13 or better to finish with the eighth .300 or better batting average of his sensational career.

Consider if at the end of spring training I presented the following to you as facts-to-be ahead of the final weekend of the regular season: Excepting the short-COVID 2020 season Altuve will have his worst season since 2013. Bregman will post the worst full-season stats of his career. Kyle Tucker will miss almost half the season to a broken leg. Chas McCormick’s quality play will disintegrate into a near season-long slump. Justin Verlander will win four games. Those four will be one more than Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers win combined. The Astros will be 17-27 in one-run games. In games tied after seven innings their record will be 5-13. In games tied after eight they will be 8-14. In extra-inning games they will be 6-10. Not one time all season will they win a game they trail after eight innings, they will be 0-56 in them.

Those are ALL facts about the 2024 Astros. And here they are prepping for yet another postseason. Being in a crummy AL West was a boon to the cause, but it’s still remarkable.

So which team is showing up to take its shot at the Astros in the lightning round best-of-three Wild Card Series? Outcomes are never a certainty, but the Detroit Tigers finishing their schedule with three games at home against the worst team in MLB history post-1900 (Chicago White Sox) gives A.J. Hinch’s club a clear path to the Tigers’ first postseason appearance since 2014. If the Tigers clinch before Sunday they don’t have to use sure-fire AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal that day, and would have him good to go in game one of the Wild Card series. That would make the Tigers the least preferable of the possible Astros’ opponents. If Skubal has to pitch Sunday, the only way he’d be available against the Astros would be on three days’ rest in a decisive game three (if necessary). If the Tigers and Kansas City Royals finish tied for the last two Wild Card berths the Astros play the Tigers.

That is not saying the Astros getting the Royals would be anything approaching a bye. For openers the Royals would have the best player on the field in presumptive AL Most Valuable Player Award runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals snapped a seven-game losing streak Tuesday. They face a tough closing series in Atlanta with the Braves still alive for an NL Wild Card. If they get to Houston, the Royals have excellent starting pitching. Their bad bullpen would be boosted by moving two starters to that pen. The Minnesota Twins are staggering, but close at home against the Baltimore Orioles who have basically nothing to play for in that series. If the Twins climb into a tie with either or both Detroit and K.C., the Twins win all tiebreakers.

Seattle is mathematically alive but the Mariners lose tiebreakers to everybody and essentially need a miracle to return to Houston next week.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday). There will be extra editions during the postseason. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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The Longhorns host Georgia on Saturday night. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

By any measure, from the official statistics to the informal eye test, top-ranked Texas' defense has been dominant.

The Longhorns rank No. 1 in total defense and scoring defense. They are top 10 in first downs allowed, tackles for loss and passing yards. Much of that is built against opponents starting former walk-on quarterbacks ( Michigan ) and freshmen ( Mississippi State and Oklahoma.)

But the level of quarterback play Texas will face, in both talent and experience, is about to get much better over the second half of the season.

Texas hosts No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night in the first matchup of top five teams in Austin since 2006, before playing the next week at Vanderbilt. Bulldogs senior Carson Beck was a preseason first team Associated Press All-America pick, and standout Vanderbilt transfer Diego Pavia has carried the Commodores to a surprising 4-2 start, including a historic win over then-No. 1 Alabama.

Quite simply, Texas hasn't defended this caliber of quarterback all season.

Beck is a player on the doorstep of the NFL, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said.

“There's nothing in the throw game (Beck) can't do,” Sarkisian said. “He's played enough football now, too. It's kind of hard to confuse guys when they've played that much football.”

Texas (6-0, 2-0 SEC) has allowed just one team to pass for more than 200 yards this season. Beck passed for 459 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions last week in a 41-31 win over Mississippi State. His 36 completions set a Georgia record.

Even when Beck struggled early in Georgia's loss to Alabama, he rallied the Bulldogs to a late fourth-quarter lead. He finished with 439 yards in the loss where Georgia's rally ended with an Alabama interception in the end zone in the final minute.

Sarkisian recruited Beck when the Texas coach was an assistant at Alabama. Beck had initially committed to the Crimson Tide before switching to Georgia.

Beck is 18-2 in his career as a starter, and 6-2 against top 20 opponents.

The Bulldogs (5-1, 3-1) will need another exceptional game from him Saturday. A second SEC loss could threaten any chance of playing for the SEC championship, and raise the alarms on the College Football Playoff as well.

Texas has all but overwhelmed opposing quarterbacks so far.

In last week's 34-3 thrashing of rival Oklahoma, the Longhorns sacked Sooners freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. five times, and held him to 27 yards on 20 carries. Texas allowed just 225 total yards.

Hawkins was the first Sooners freshman to start at quarterback against the Longhorns in the 120-year history of the rivalry and was quickly swallowed up by a relentless pass rush.

By the numbers, the Longhorns program is on pace for a historic season. Sarkisian has said his favorite stat is points allowed, which is not many.

Texas has surrendered only three touchdowns all season. Opponents have snatched four turnovers inside Texas territory, but none have produced points.

That ability to snuff momentum can drain an opponent, Sarkisian said.

“We're so composed as a defense,” Texas safety Michael Taaffe said. “We're so confident, that no matter what happens, everything is going to be alright.”

The only time Texas has trailed this season was a 3-0 early deficit against Oklahoma. Several Longhorns starters were still on the field when the Sooners' final drive stalled at the Texas 6-yard-line as the game ended.

The stars emerging for the Longhorns have been second-year linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and freshman edge rusher Colin Simmons.

Hill leads the team in total tackles (42), sacks (4 1/2) and tackles for loss (8 1/2). His sideline-to-sideline speed and move this season from the edge to the middle of the Texas defense has drawn comparisons to former Longhorns All-American Derrick Johnson 20 years ago.

Simmons has four sacks and 7 1/2 tackles for losses, second on the team in both categories.

“Size, speed,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said in summing up the Texas defense.

“They’re the complete package on defense," Smart said. "The consistency you watch them play with, it reminds me of some of our best teams here.”By any measure, from the official statistics to the informal eye test, top-ranked Texas' defense has been dominant.