THE PALLILOG
Yordan is having a historic month. You’ll never guess which Astro had a better one.
Jun 17, 2022, 9:42 am
Yordan still has work to do. Composite photo by Brandon Strange.
With the Astros coming off of an off day to start the back half of June with a 32nd consecutive game against a team with a losing record, it’s a nice pause point to consider Yordan Alvarez and his shot at putting together the most awesome individual offensive month in franchise history. To do so, as Chef Emeril would say, he’ll have to kick it up a notch. Pretty amazing considering the spectacular run Yordan is on, thus far in June batting a cool .468 with an on base percentage of .552 and a slugging percentage of .787 for an eye-exploding OPS of 1.339.
Alvarez set an extremely high bar with the production he put forth in unanimously winning American League Rookie of the Year in 2019. A .327 batting average, .412 OBP, and .655 slugging percentage, OPS 1.067 over 87 games was historic stuff. Those numbers are better than Yordan’s totals so far this season, but three years ago the balls were juiced so relative to the rest of Major League Baseball 2022 Alvarez is superior. After missing all but two games of the shortened 2020 season due to knee problems, Yordan was excellent last year, but nothing like his rookie season or this. His plate discipline has improved dramatically. Alvarez’s strikeout rate is down by a third and his walk rate is up by half, a phenomenal combo. The six year 115 million dollar contract extension he signed last week sounds like a great bargain for the Astros, and of course generations of financial security for Alvarez. He turns only 25 years old June 27.
Add this log on the Alvarez inferno: if indeed MLB bans shifts next season perhaps not only mandating two infielders on either side of second base but requiring all to have at least one foot on the infield dirt, Alvarez’s batting average should get an easy 20 or so point boost. His screamers to a second baseman thirty or forty feet out in right field that become an out now? Hits in 2023. Kyle Tucker stands to benefit as well. All left-handed hitters will, the Astros happen to have the best tandem of young lefty mashers in the game.
The Astros have a fine lineage of individual offensive powerhouses. In five guesses, can you name the Astro who put up the greatest raw month-long stats? We’ll get to that answer shortly.
Killer B's
Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman have the two greatest career offensive resumes posted by Astros. Bagwell did it here longer, but Lance was basically his equal. Bagwell’s career batting average finished at .297 with an OPS of .948. Berkman hit .293 for his career with a .943 OPS, but as an Astro the numbers are .296 and .959. That’s one way of explaining how ridiculous it was that Berkman didn’t even draw five percent of the vote in his first year of eligibility for the Baseball Hall of Fame, which resulted in his name being dropped from future ballots. Anyway…
Yordan’s OPS for June to date is the ridiculous 1.339. In 1994 Bagwell was better than what Yordan is doing this month, for two months in a row. Baggy racked up a 1.354 OPS in June ’94 and topped that with 1.374 in July. Alvarez has hit “only” three home runs so far this month. 28 (!) years ago Bagwell hit 13 in June and another 11 in July. With the Astrodome as his home park no less, as opposed to the vastly more home run friendly Minute Maid Park.
Still, it’s not Bagwell with the greatest raw data month in Astro archives. Or Berkman. Or Moises Alou. Or Cesar Cedeno. Or Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer, or Carlos Correa. Cry uncle?
Turn back the clock
Enron Field opened in 2000 as a hitter’s haven better than any other not in Denver. Add in it was peak steroid era baseball and it was a joke how easily homers were hit, 266 of them in 81 games. It led to playing field modifications. Outfielder Richard Hidalgo took advantage, though oddly enough Hidalgo hit 28 of his career high 44 homers on the road (Hidalgo never again topped 28 homers for a season). Hidalgo entered September having a strong year batting .275 with 33 homers. He began September going just four for 16 but then…
Over the final 25 games (including the season finale October 1) Hidalgo smashed to a .517 average (47 for 91!), his OBP was .574, and 25 extra base hits in those 25 games (12 doubles, two triples, and 11 homers) made for a 1.055 slugging percentage. Nutso numbers. For the full month (plus October 1) Hidalgo hit .477, OBP .532, slugging .953. OPS 1.486, the greatest monthly tally any Astro has ever posted. That’s a whopping 147 points higher OPS than Alvarez is so far this month. Crank it up Yordan!
Capsules of American League West teams, listed in order of finish last year:
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Houston Astros
2024: 88-73, first place, lost to Detroit in Wild Card Series.
Manager: Joe Espada (second season).
Opening Day: March 27 vs. New York Mets.
He’s Here: 1B Christian Walker, 3B Isaac Paredes, INF Luis Guillorme, RHP Hayden Wesneski.
He’s Outta Here: 3B Alex Bregman, RF Kyle Tucker, RHP Ryan Pressly.
Top Hitters: DH Yordan Alvarez (.308, 35 HRs, 86 RBIs, .959 OPS), C Yainer Diaz (.299, 16, 84, 29 2Bs), LF Jose Altuve (.295, 20, 65, 31 2Bs, 94 runs), 1B Christian Walker (.251, 26, 84, .803 OPS with Arizona), SS Jeremy Pena (.266, 15, 70, 28 2Bs).
Projected Rotation: LH Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA), RH Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49), RH Ronel Blanco (13-6, 2.80), RH Spencer Arrighetti (7-13, 4.53), RH Hayden Wesneski (3-6, 3.86).
Key Relievers: LH Josh Hader (8-8, 3.80 ERA, 34 saves), RH Bryan Abreu (3-3, 3.10, 1 save), RH Tayler Scott (7-3, 2.23), LH Bennett Sousa (0-0, 4.00 in 2023), RH Kaleb Ort (1-1, 2.55, 1 save).
Outlook: The Astros should contend for a fifth straight AL West title despite trading outfielder Tucker and losing longtime third baseman Bregman in free agency. They made a major upgrade at first base with the addition of Walker after failing to find consistency there last season after the release of José Abreu. It will be interesting to see how Paredes fares in replacing Bregman and how Altuve’s move to left field will go after the veteran superstar played second base exclusively for his first 14 seasons. Valdez returns to lead a rotation that will start the season with several young arms but that could get a boost in the summer with the expected returns of Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia after both players had Tommy John surgery last year. General manager Dana Brown is confident that this team can have a bounce-back year and make another deep playoff run after losing to Detroit in the Wild Card round last season.
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Seattle Mariners
2024: 85-77, second place.
Manager: Dan Wilson (first full season).
Opening Day: March 27 vs. Athletics.
He’s Here: INF Donovan Solano, INF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni.
He’s Outta Here: RHP Yimi García, 3B Josh Rojas, 3B Luis Urías, 1B Justin Turner.
Top Hitters: CF Julio Rodríguez (.273, 20 HRs, 68 RBIs, .734 OPS, all career lows), C Cal Raleigh (.220, career-high 34, career-high 100). SS J.P. Crawford (career-low .202, 9, 37 in 105 games), DH Mitch Garver (.172, 15, 51), 2B Jorge Polanco (.212, 16, 45).
Projected Rotation: RH Luis Castillo (11-12, 3.64 ERA, 175 Ks in 175 1/3 IP), RH Logan Gilbert (9-12, 3.23, 220 Ks in major league-high 208 2/3 IP, major league-best 0.887 WHIP), RH Bryce Miller (12-8, 2.94), RH Bryan Woo (9-3, 2.89 in 22 starts), RH Emerson Hancock (4-4, 4.75 in 12 starts).
Key Relievers: RH Andrés Muñoz (3-7, 2.12 ERA, 22/27 saves, 77 Ks in 59 1/3 IP), RH Trent Thornton (4-3, 3.61), RH Colin Snider (3-4, 1.94), RH Troy Taylor (0-0, 3.72), LH Taylor Saucedo (2-0, 3.49, 3 saves).
Outlook: Seattle has finished with winning records in four straight seasons for the first time but has made the playoffs just once in that span, in 2022, when it was swept by Houston in the Division Series. The Mariners went 21-13 last year after Wilson replaced Scott Servais as manager on Aug. 22. The manager swap is likely the biggest change heading into opening day from 2024. Seattle’s most notable offseason additions included signing Solano and acquiring Mastrobuoni from the Chicago Cubs. The Mariners hope for a rebound by Rodríguez, who had just four homers and 21 RBIs through June. The lack of offense was a team-wide problem: Seattle hit .224, 29th among the 30 teams, ahead only the 121-loss Chicago White Sox. Right-hander George Kirby (13-10, 3.35, 172 Ks, 19 walks, MLB-low 1.084 walks per 9 innings) is likely to open the season on the injured list because of right shoulder inflammation, leading to an opening for Hancock to join the rotation.
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Texas Rangers
2024: 78-84, third place.
Manager: Bruce Bochy (third season).
Opening Day: March 27 vs. Boston.
Here’s Here: 1B Jake Burger, C Kyle Higashioka, RHP Chris Martin, LHP Hoby Milner, DH Joc Pederson, RHP Jacob Webb.
He’s Outta Here: C Carson Kelly, OF Travis Jankowski, LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP José Leclerc, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kirby Yates.
Top Hitters: SS Corey Seager (.278, 30 HRs, 74 RBIs, .864 OPS), RF Adolis García (.224, 25, 85, 177 Ks), 2B Marcus Semien (.237, 23, 74), 1B Jake Burger (.250, 29, 76 with Marlins), DH Joc Pederson (.275, 23, 64 with Diamondbacks), OF Wyatt Langford (.253, 16, 74, 19 SBs).
Projected Rotation: RH Nathan Eovaldi (12-8, 3.80 ERA, 166 Ks in 170 2/3 IP), RH Jon Gray (5-6, 4.47), LH Cody Bradford (6-3, 3.54), RH Jacob deGrom (0-0, 1.69 in three starts), RH Tyler Mahle (0-1, 4.97).
Key Relievers: RH Chris Martin (3-1, 3.45 ERA, 2 saves in 45 appearances with Boston), RH Luke Jackson (4-3, 5.09 in 52 games with Giants and Braves), RH Jacob Webb (2-5, 3.02 in 60 appearances for Orioles), LH Hoby Milner (5-1, 4.73 in 61 appearances for Brewers), LH Robert Garcia (3-6, 4.22 in 72 appearances for Nationals), RH Dane Dunning (5-7, 5.31 in 26 games, 15 starts).
Outlook: The starting rotation is in good shape with Eovaldi re-signed, and two-time Cy Young Award winner deGrom and Mahle both making late-season debuts last year after recovering from elbow surgery. There is no defined closer after Yates left in free agency and with Josh Sborz rehabbing from shoulder surgery, but Martin joins his hometown team for a prominent role at the back end of a restructured bullpen. Burger and Pederson add pop to an offense that last year hit 57 fewer homers and scored one run less per game than when winning the franchise's first World Series title with Bochy in 2023. These Rangers may not be far off from at least having a shot at repeating a unique pattern for Bochy, who won three World Series crowns with San Francisco from 2010-14. After each of those first two titles, the Giants missed the playoffs the following year before coming back to win another one. Texas still has Semien, Seager and Jung on the infield. García seeks a bounce-back season in the outfield, likely joined out there by young standouts Langford and Evan Carter.
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Athletics
2024: 69-93, fourth place.
Manager: Mark Kotsay (fourth season).
Opening Day: March 27 at Seattle.
He’s Here: RHP Luis Severino, 3B Gio Urshela, LHP Jeffrey Springs, RH Jose Leclerc, INF Luis Urias, LHP Jacob Lopez.
He’s Outta Here: RHP Ross Stripling, 3B Abraham Toro, LHP Alex Wood, LHP Scott Alexander, RHP Austin Adams, OF Daz Cameron, 3B J.D. Davis, SS Nick Allen, 1B Ryan Noda.
Top Hitters: DH Brent Rooker (.293, 39 HRs, 112 RBI, .927 OPS), C Shea Langeliers (.224, 29, 80, .739 OPS), OF Lawrence Butler (.262, 22, 57, .807 OPS), OF JJ Bleday (.243, 20, 60, .762 OPS), 2B Zack Gelof (.211, 17, 49, 25 SBs).
Projected Rotation: RH Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA with the New York Mets), LH JP Sears (11-13, 4.38), LH Jeffrey Springs (2-2, 3.27 with Tampa Bay), RH Osvaldo Bido (5-3, 3.41), RH Joey Estes (7-9, 5.01) OR RH Mitch Spence (8-10, 4.58).
Key Relievers: RH Mason Miller (2-2, 2.49, 28/31 saves, 14.4 Ks/9 IP), RH Jose Leclerc (6-5, 4.32, 1 save with Texas), LH T.J. McFarland (2-4, 3.81), RH Tyler Ferguson (4-2, 3.68, 2 saves).
Outlook: The A’s begin a temporary stay in the Sacramento area this season. They will play at least the next three seasons at a Triple-A stadium as they wait for their new home to be built in Las Vegas. Their final season in Oakland was emotional and showed some signs of progress with a 19-win improvement. The A’s increased their spending this offseason as they needed a higher payroll in order to get a full share in revenue sharing. Severino, Butler and Rooker all got deals worth at least $60 million after the franchise had handed out one deal that rich ever before this season. They should be competitive but still likely lack the depth of talent to compete for the postseason.
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Los Angeles Angels
2024: 63-99, fifth place.
Manager: Ron Washington (second season).
Opening day: March 27 at Chicago White Sox.
He’s Here: LHP Yusei Kikuchi, DH Jorge Soler, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Kyle Hendricks, C Travis d’Arnaud, 3B Yoán Moncada, INF Kevin Newman, SS Tim Anderson.
He’s Outta Here: 2B Brandon Drury, C Matt Thaiss, RHP Griffin Canning, LHP Patrick Sandoval, RHP Carson Fulmer, RHP Hunter Strickland, LHP Matt Moore.
Top Hitters: RF Mike Trout (.220, 10 HRs, 14 RBIs in 29 games), OF Taylor Ward (.246, 25, 75, .748 OPS), C Logan O’Hoppe (.244, 20, 56), SS Zach Neto (.249, 23 , 77, .761 OPS, 5.1 WAR), DH Jorge Soler (.241, 21, 64 with Giants and Braves).
Projected Rotation: LH Yusei Kikuchi (9-10, 4.05 ERA, 206 Ks with Blue Jays and Astros), LH Tyler Anderson (10-15, 3.81, 1.29 WHIP, 3.1 WAR), RH Jose Soriano (6-7, 3.42, 97 Ks in 113 innings), LH Reid Detmers (4-9, 6.70, spent three months at Triple-A Salt Lake), RH Kyle Hendricks (4-12, 5.92 for Cubs).
Key Relievers: RH Kenley Jansen (4-2, 3.29, 27/31 saves with Red Sox), RH Ben Joyce (2-0, 2.08, 33 Ks in 34 2/3 innings), RH Ryan Zeferjahn (0-0, 2.12, 18 Ks in 17 innings), RH Chase Silseth (0-1, 6.75 in two appearances).
Outlook: The Angels finished 2024 at rock bottom, losing a club-record 99 games and extending the majors’ longest streaks to nine consecutive losing seasons and 10 straight non-playoff seasons. The sole sign for optimism was solid play from youngsters O’Hoppe, Neto, Soriano, Joyce and Nolan Schanuel. They’re all back to keep building, although Neto will start on the injured list after right shoulder surgery. Trout is healthy again after four consecutive injury-plagued seasons, and the three-time AL MVP is moving from center to right field to preserve his health. Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell should be the primary center fielders. Anthony Rendon is already guaranteed to miss extended playing time for the fourth straight season after the $245 million third baseman announced he needs hip surgery. The rotation is headlined by newcomer Kikuchi, and longtime Dodgers closer Jansen could form a potent late-game combination with the fireballing Joyce.