THE PALLILOG

Yordan is having a historic month. You’ll never guess which Astro had a better one.

Yordan Alvarez Astros
Yordan still has work to do. Composite photo by Brandon Strange.

With the Astros coming off of an off day to start the back half of June with a 32nd consecutive game against a team with a losing record, it’s a nice pause point to consider Yordan Alvarez and his shot at putting together the most awesome individual offensive month in franchise history. To do so, as Chef Emeril would say, he’ll have to kick it up a notch. Pretty amazing considering the spectacular run Yordan is on, thus far in June batting a cool .468 with an on base percentage of .552 and a slugging percentage of .787 for an eye-exploding OPS of 1.339.

Alvarez set an extremely high bar with the production he put forth in unanimously winning American League Rookie of the Year in 2019. A .327 batting average, .412 OBP, and .655 slugging percentage, OPS 1.067 over 87 games was historic stuff. Those numbers are better than Yordan’s totals so far this season, but three years ago the balls were juiced so relative to the rest of Major League Baseball 2022 Alvarez is superior. After missing all but two games of the shortened 2020 season due to knee problems, Yordan was excellent last year, but nothing like his rookie season or this. His plate discipline has improved dramatically. Alvarez’s strikeout rate is down by a third and his walk rate is up by half, a phenomenal combo. The six year 115 million dollar contract extension he signed last week sounds like a great bargain for the Astros, and of course generations of financial security for Alvarez. He turns only 25 years old June 27.

Add this log on the Alvarez inferno: if indeed MLB bans shifts next season perhaps not only mandating two infielders on either side of second base but requiring all to have at least one foot on the infield dirt, Alvarez’s batting average should get an easy 20 or so point boost. His screamers to a second baseman thirty or forty feet out in right field that become an out now? Hits in 2023. Kyle Tucker stands to benefit as well. All left-handed hitters will, the Astros happen to have the best tandem of young lefty mashers in the game.

The Astros have a fine lineage of individual offensive powerhouses. In five guesses, can you name the Astro who put up the greatest raw month-long stats? We’ll get to that answer shortly.

Killer B's

Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman have the two greatest career offensive resumes posted by Astros. Bagwell did it here longer, but Lance was basically his equal. Bagwell’s career batting average finished at .297 with an OPS of .948. Berkman hit .293 for his career with a .943 OPS, but as an Astro the numbers are .296 and .959. That’s one way of explaining how ridiculous it was that Berkman didn’t even draw five percent of the vote in his first year of eligibility for the Baseball Hall of Fame, which resulted in his name being dropped from future ballots. Anyway…

Yordan’s OPS for June to date is the ridiculous 1.339. In 1994 Bagwell was better than what Yordan is doing this month, for two months in a row. Baggy racked up a 1.354 OPS in June ’94 and topped that with 1.374 in July. Alvarez has hit “only” three home runs so far this month. 28 (!) years ago Bagwell hit 13 in June and another 11 in July. With the Astrodome as his home park no less, as opposed to the vastly more home run friendly Minute Maid Park.

Still, it’s not Bagwell with the greatest raw data month in Astro archives. Or Berkman. Or Moises Alou. Or Cesar Cedeno. Or Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer, or Carlos Correa. Cry uncle?

Turn back the clock

Enron Field opened in 2000 as a hitter’s haven better than any other not in Denver. Add in it was peak steroid era baseball and it was a joke how easily homers were hit, 266 of them in 81 games. It led to playing field modifications. Outfielder Richard Hidalgo took advantage, though oddly enough Hidalgo hit 28 of his career high 44 homers on the road (Hidalgo never again topped 28 homers for a season). Hidalgo entered September having a strong year batting .275 with 33 homers. He began September going just four for 16 but then…

Over the final 25 games (including the season finale October 1) Hidalgo smashed to a .517 average (47 for 91!), his OBP was .574, and 25 extra base hits in those 25 games (12 doubles, two triples, and 11 homers) made for a 1.055 slugging percentage. Nutso numbers. For the full month (plus October 1) Hidalgo hit .477, OBP .532, slugging .953. OPS 1.486, the greatest monthly tally any Astro has ever posted. That’s a whopping 147 points higher OPS than Alvarez is so far this month. Crank it up Yordan!

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Can top prospect Brice Matthews give Houston a boost? Composite Getty Image.

What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.

Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.

 

Depth finally runs dry

 

It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.

Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.

But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.

The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.

 

Cracks in the pitching core

 

And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.

Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.

But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.

 

Injury handling under fire

 

Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.

No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.

Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.

 

Pressure mounts on Dana Brown

 

All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.

Brown will need to act — and soon.

At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.

*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!

 

There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.

 

A final test before the break

 

Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.

The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.

There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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*ChatGPT assisted.

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