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How the Houston Rockets achieved the perfect balance for a rebuild

Rockets Jalen Green
Jalen Green looks like the real deal. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Rockets' need to feed their future. They're obviously fans of my work because not only have they listened, but it's been working out nicely. And by nicely, I mean they're developing their future stars, but still losing games in order to improve their chances for a top pick in the upcoming draft. In March, rookie guard Jalen Green averaged 20.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game in 17 games played on 48% shooting from the field, which includes 39.6% from three. Diving a little further into his surge, he's at 21.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, on 47.6% shooting with 39.5% from three in 22 games since the All-Star break.

Green himself said the All-Star break gave him the confidence he needed to go into the second half with a renewed focus. Couple that with the extra film sessions with head coach Stephen Silas and shootarounds with John Lucas, and we're seeing this kid blossom right before our eyes. His continued growth, along with Alperen Sengun and Kevin Porter Jr, has the future looking brighter than what most of us initially thought.

Yesterday The Bench's John Granato and Lance Zierlein from ESPN Houston, talked about how Green has been the best rookie in the second half of the NBA season. They highlighted how his shooting has improved (along with his shot selection), his killer first step, finishing strong at the rim despite his slight frame, and how those flashes of brilliance have now become sustainable excellence. The Killer B's, Joel Blank and Jeremy Branham, also talked about the future of the Rockets a few weeks ago amid this surge. They too like how the team has handled their young stars while maintaining their positioning in the upcoming draft.

When James Harden was traded, most people thought this rebuild would take years. The team was devoid of talent, no room under the cap, and had very little draft desirable capital. They were going to be banking on being a flaming disaster in order to keep their lottery protected picks. Turns out, they've made some shrewd moves that seem to be paying off big time. The trade for KPJ, drafting Green (as well as Sengun and Josh Christopher), and signing Christian Wood to a very affordable deal given his production. However, with Sengun emerging as a better fit next to Green and the others, Wood is now a valuable trade piece the team should use to attract some assets back to help this young team truly realize its potential.

I'll be the first to eat my words when it comes to Wood. I wanted him to be a part of the long-term plans here. I even wrote about how I felt he would be worth keeping. Joel has been adamant about the team needing to trade him. He was so right, and now I'm on the bus. I can see why he's not good for this young nucleus (attitude and inflated sense of self-worth), plus he's taking valuable minutes Sengun needs to develop. What if they could flip Wood into another pick or maybe even a veteran who can come in and truly mentor these young guys? Think about the Suns. They were one of the worst teams in the league not too long ago. Now they're the best team in the league this season and appeared in the Finals last season. All because they added Chris Paul to a young nucleus that included superstar guard Devin Booker and promising big Deandre Ayton.

I'm not saying the Rockets will be the Suns in a couple of years, but it's not out of the realm of possibility anymore. They must continue to grow and develop their young core, identify free agents to bring into the fold that'll help the long-term goal (even if they're here short term), and continue to draft well. If things keep falling in place at the rate they have the second half of this season, we may be looking at a potential play-in spot within a couple of years. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess where this team could end up.

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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