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How the Houston Rockets achieved the perfect balance for a rebuild
Apr 7, 2022, 6:21 pm
Jalen Green looks like the real deal. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Rockets' need to feed their future. They're obviously fans of my work because not only have they listened, but it's been working out nicely. And by nicely, I mean they're developing their future stars, but still losing games in order to improve their chances for a top pick in the upcoming draft. In March, rookie guard Jalen Green averaged 20.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game in 17 games played on 48% shooting from the field, which includes 39.6% from three. Diving a little further into his surge, he's at 21.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, on 47.6% shooting with 39.5% from three in 22 games since the All-Star break.
Green himself said the All-Star break gave him the confidence he needed to go into the second half with a renewed focus. Couple that with the extra film sessions with head coach Stephen Silas and shootarounds with John Lucas, and we're seeing this kid blossom right before our eyes. His continued growth, along with Alperen Sengun and Kevin Porter Jr, has the future looking brighter than what most of us initially thought.
Yesterday The Bench's John Granato and Lance Zierlein from ESPN Houston, talked about how Green has been the best rookie in the second half of the NBA season. They highlighted how his shooting has improved (along with his shot selection), his killer first step, finishing strong at the rim despite his slight frame, and how those flashes of brilliance have now become sustainable excellence. The Killer B's, Joel Blank and Jeremy Branham, also talked about the future of the Rockets a few weeks ago amid this surge. They too like how the team has handled their young stars while maintaining their positioning in the upcoming draft.
When James Harden was traded, most people thought this rebuild would take years. The team was devoid of talent, no room under the cap, and had very little draft desirable capital. They were going to be banking on being a flaming disaster in order to keep their lottery protected picks. Turns out, they've made some shrewd moves that seem to be paying off big time. The trade for KPJ, drafting Green (as well as Sengun and Josh Christopher), and signing Christian Wood to a very affordable deal given his production. However, with Sengun emerging as a better fit next to Green and the others, Wood is now a valuable trade piece the team should use to attract some assets back to help this young team truly realize its potential.
I'll be the first to eat my words when it comes to Wood. I wanted him to be a part of the long-term plans here. I even wrote about how I felt he would be worth keeping. Joel has been adamant about the team needing to trade him. He was so right, and now I'm on the bus. I can see why he's not good for this young nucleus (attitude and inflated sense of self-worth), plus he's taking valuable minutes Sengun needs to develop. What if they could flip Wood into another pick or maybe even a veteran who can come in and truly mentor these young guys? Think about the Suns. They were one of the worst teams in the league not too long ago. Now they're the best team in the league this season and appeared in the Finals last season. All because they added Chris Paul to a young nucleus that included superstar guard Devin Booker and promising big Deandre Ayton.
I'm not saying the Rockets will be the Suns in a couple of years, but it's not out of the realm of possibility anymore. They must continue to grow and develop their young core, identify free agents to bring into the fold that'll help the long-term goal (even if they're here short term), and continue to draft well. If things keep falling in place at the rate they have the second half of this season, we may be looking at a potential play-in spot within a couple of years. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess where this team could end up.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.