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How the NBA Draft could impact a divisive Houston Rockets homecoming
Feb 23, 2023, 12:38 pm
The Beard could be on his way back to Houston. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
I've been hearing the rumors. Been watching the chatter online. Been perusing the conversations. Gauging the interest, or lack thereof. Things have been quite polarizing when it comes to the subject: Do fans want James Harden back with the Houston Rockets? It's sort of split between the section of fans who are impatient and want to win again as soon as possible, and the fans who are patient and want the team to continue to rebuild around the young stars. When I heard this, it got me to thinking:
The fans who want Harden back are almost consistently tired of losing. They feel bringing Harden back will propel this roster into playoff contention immediately. One of the things they bring to the table is this team's need for a true point guard. Harden has transformed his game to be one of the best playmakers in the league. He's averaged seven or more assists per game every year since the 2014-15 season. Of those nine seasons, he's averaged 10 or more four times. This group thinks Harden can be the missing link between this team making the playoffs.
The people who don't want him back speak about his attitude and professionalism. They don't want someone like Harden having a bad influence on the young roster. If his poor habits rub off on them, they're afraid choking in the playoffs, partying, and being too nonchalant will negatively impact the kids. Harden also isn't the player he used to be. He's never been a top-notch athlete, but he's also going to be 34 when next season starts. Mother Nature and Father Time are undefeated (LeBron James is still fighting that theory).
With the talent they have now, cap space to sign a top free agent outright, and another top draft pick coming, this team is set up to do good things. But what if they don't get a top two pick? What if they miss out on Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson? Now what? Will Harden still be a viable option? I think he would. He loves it here. Still has a house and investments here in Houston. Missing out on those prized rookies would set them back some, but there's other talent in this draft. Those top two guys are potential franchise altering players, especially Wemby. Not getting one or the other would hurt, but not as bad as we tend to think. I think it'll put them a season or two behind schedule, meaning they'll make the playoffs after next season instead of making it next season.
As far as attracting other free agents, not getting Harden would be better in my opinion. He's not the type of guy other players are clamoring to play with. He is more of a playmaker now, but has a reputation that's made him more pariah than messiah. Things may change when those players look at Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. The biggest attraction would actually be adding Wemby or Scoot without Harden. Any vet would kill to play with that many young kids eager and ready. It's why Harden is looking to come back himself.
Bottom line, I don't like the prospect of a Harden reunion. Another vet or two that has a better work ethic and rep would be ideal. Truly, one who's not going to come in and think it's his team. Harden will undoubtedly think it's his team. The type of free agents to bring in will need to be able to allow the future of this franchise to grow and aid in that process. I don't see Harden as being that type of guy. If Kelly Iko's inkling and what ESPN Houston's Joel Blank has heard are both correct, there's a strong chance of this happening. If it does or doesn't, I only hope better times are ahead for this team. The fans deserve better.
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While holding one’s breath that for a change the Astros aren’t publicly grossly underestimating an injury’s severity with Jose Altuve having missed the last game and a half with “right side discomfort…”
The Astros averting a sweep vs. Oakland Thursday was in no way a must-win, but getting the win allowed a mini sigh of relief. The Astros are NOT in the process of choking. Could they collapse? Sure that’s possible. Also possible is that they’ve just been in one more ebb phase in a season of ebb and flow. They certainly have left the door ajar for the Seattle Mariners to swipe the American League West, but with the M's simply not looking good enough to walk through that door the Astros remain in commanding position. The Astros made a spectacular charge from 10 games behind to grab the division lead. But there was a lot of runway left when the Astros awoke June 19th 10 games in arrears. September 3 the Astros arose with a comfy six game lead over the M’s. With Seattle blowing a 4-1 eighth inning lead in a 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday night, heading into Friday night the Astros' advantage is back up to four and a half games despite the Astros having lost six of their last nine games and having gone just 10-12 over their last 22 games. Not a good stretch but nothing freefalling about it.
While the Mariners have the remainder of their four-game series vs. the dead in the water Rangers this weekend, the Astros play three at the lousy Los Angeles Angels. The Astros should take advantage of the Halos, with whom they also have a four-game series at Minute Maid Park next weekend. Since the All-Star break, only the White Sox have a worse record than the Angels 19-31 mark (the White Sox are 6-43 post-break!). Two of the three starting pitchers the Angels will throw this weekend will be making their third big league starts. To begin next week the Astros are in San Diego for a three-game-set against a Padres club which is flat better than the Astros right now. That does not mean the Astros can’t take that series. The Mariners meanwhile will be still at home, for three vs. the Yankees.
There are some brutal Astros’ statistics that largely explain why this is merely a pretty good team and not more. As I have noted before, it is a fallacy that the best teams are usually superior in close games. But the Astros have been pathetic in close games. There used to be a joke made about Sammy Sosa that he could blow you out, but he couldn’t beat you. Meaning being that when the score was 6-1, 8-3 or the like Sammy would pad his stats with home runs and runs batted in galore. But in a tight game, don’t count on Sammy to come through very often. In one-run games the Astros are 15-26, in two-run games they are 10-14. In games that were tied after seven innings they are 3-12. In extra innings they are 5-10. The good news is, all those realities mean nothing when the postseason starts. So long as you’re in the postseason. In games decided by three or more runs the Astros have pummeled the opposition to the tune of 53 wins and 28 losses.
General Manager Dana Brown isn’t an Executive of the Year candidate, but overall he’s been fine this season. Without the Yusei Kikuchi trade deadline acquisition the Astros would likely barely lead the AL West. Brown’s biggest offseason get, Victor Caratini, has done very solid work in his part-time role. Though he has tapered off notably the last month and change, relief pitcher Tayler Scott was a fabulous signing. Scrap heap pickups Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward, and Kaleb Ort have all made contributions. However…
Dana. Dana! You made yourself look very silly with comments this week somewhat scoffing at people being concerned with or dismissive of Justin Verlander’s ability to be a meaningful playoff contributor. Brown re-sang a ridiculous past tune, the “check the back of his baseball card” baloney. Dana, did you mean like the back of Jose Abreu’s baseball card? Perhaps Brown has never seen those brokerage ads in which at the end in fine print and/or in rapidly spoken words “past performance is no guarantee of future results” always must be included. Past (overall career) performance as indicative of future results for a 41-year-old pitcher who has frequently looked terrible and has twice missed chunks of this season to two different injuries is absurd. That Verlander could find it in time is plausible. That of course he’ll find it? Absolutely not. His next two starts are slotted to be against the feeble Angels, so even if the results are better, it won’t mean “JV IS BACK!”
Presuming they hold on to win the division, the Astros’ recent sub-middling play means they have only very faint hope of avoiding having to play the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Barring a dramatic turn over the regular season’s final fortnight, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are the obvious choices to start games one and two. If there is a game three, it is one game do or die. Only a fool would think Verlander the right man for that assignment. No one should expect Brown to say “Yeah, JV is likely finished as a frontline starter.” But going to the “back of the baseball card” line was laughable. Father Time gets us all eventually. Verlander has an uphill climb extricating himself from Father Time’s grasp.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.