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How the NBA Draft could impact a divisive Houston Rockets homecoming
Feb 23, 2023, 12:38 pm
The Beard could be on his way back to Houston. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
I've been hearing the rumors. Been watching the chatter online. Been perusing the conversations. Gauging the interest, or lack thereof. Things have been quite polarizing when it comes to the subject: Do fans want James Harden back with the Houston Rockets? It's sort of split between the section of fans who are impatient and want to win again as soon as possible, and the fans who are patient and want the team to continue to rebuild around the young stars. When I heard this, it got me to thinking:
The fans who want Harden back are almost consistently tired of losing. They feel bringing Harden back will propel this roster into playoff contention immediately. One of the things they bring to the table is this team's need for a true point guard. Harden has transformed his game to be one of the best playmakers in the league. He's averaged seven or more assists per game every year since the 2014-15 season. Of those nine seasons, he's averaged 10 or more four times. This group thinks Harden can be the missing link between this team making the playoffs.
The people who don't want him back speak about his attitude and professionalism. They don't want someone like Harden having a bad influence on the young roster. If his poor habits rub off on them, they're afraid choking in the playoffs, partying, and being too nonchalant will negatively impact the kids. Harden also isn't the player he used to be. He's never been a top-notch athlete, but he's also going to be 34 when next season starts. Mother Nature and Father Time are undefeated (LeBron James is still fighting that theory).
With the talent they have now, cap space to sign a top free agent outright, and another top draft pick coming, this team is set up to do good things. But what if they don't get a top two pick? What if they miss out on Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson? Now what? Will Harden still be a viable option? I think he would. He loves it here. Still has a house and investments here in Houston. Missing out on those prized rookies would set them back some, but there's other talent in this draft. Those top two guys are potential franchise altering players, especially Wemby. Not getting one or the other would hurt, but not as bad as we tend to think. I think it'll put them a season or two behind schedule, meaning they'll make the playoffs after next season instead of making it next season.
As far as attracting other free agents, not getting Harden would be better in my opinion. He's not the type of guy other players are clamoring to play with. He is more of a playmaker now, but has a reputation that's made him more pariah than messiah. Things may change when those players look at Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. The biggest attraction would actually be adding Wemby or Scoot without Harden. Any vet would kill to play with that many young kids eager and ready. It's why Harden is looking to come back himself.
Bottom line, I don't like the prospect of a Harden reunion. Another vet or two that has a better work ethic and rep would be ideal. Truly, one who's not going to come in and think it's his team. Harden will undoubtedly think it's his team. The type of free agents to bring in will need to be able to allow the future of this franchise to grow and aid in that process. I don't see Harden as being that type of guy. If Kelly Iko's inkling and what ESPN Houston's Joel Blank has heard are both correct, there's a strong chance of this happening. If it does or doesn't, I only hope better times are ahead for this team. The fans deserve better.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.