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Here's what a KPJ extension could look like for Houston Rockets
Jul 27, 2022, 1:04 pm
How much is too much to pay Kevin Porter Jr?Composite image by Jack Brame
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The Rockets are on the move. They have drafted well, gotten rid of some bad contracts, and have young guys ready to develop into stars in Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr, Jabari Smith Jr, Josh Christopher, Tari Eason, and others. Those days of only winning 20 or so games are about to be a distant memory. This coming season, they may even challenge for a play-in spot. At the conclusion of last season, they were 14 games out of the 10th and final play-in spot. Having to overcome the Spurs, Lakers, Kings, Blazers, and Thunder shouldn't be as difficult as it seems. Most of those teams won't be any better this coming season, and some of the other teams that made the playoffs may take steps backwards.
Part of rebuilding a team with young talent means knowing who to offer extensions to, when, and how much. Home teams can offer players a five-year deal, while opposing teams can offer a four-year deal. Enter KPJ. He's going into the final year of his rookie deal. He and the team reportedly have mutual interest in an extension, according to The Athletic. Jae'Sean Tate was the first of this new crop of guys to re-sign. His three year, $20.5 million dollar deal was very team friendly. Tate said he feels home here and took less to stay because he feels this is best for him, and he wants to see things through with the Rockets. While that's a rare idea for a young player to not maximize his earning potential, one can't expect everyone to do so.
KPJ is eligible for a five-year max worth up to $188 million (25% of the cap, with a year on salary of $32.45 million). That most likely won't happen. So what will his extension look like? I could see anywhere from a short term deal in the neighborhood of two to three years, or a full five-year commitment. The length will hinge upon how confident the team is in his ability to be here long term and develop into the role they envision for him. Part of that is contingent upon his attitude taking the full turn for the better, with no more hiccups like he's had in the past.
The monetary value is another thing. To keep it simple, I'll speak in terms of average annual value. Anything in the area of $8-15 million a year says they see him as a role player. $18-20+ million says they see him as a future cornerstone of the franchise moving forward. Green is obviously being positioned as the guy. He will command a full max extension when he's eligible. KPJ seems as if he sees himself in the same light, or at least similarly. Let's look at some of his strengths and weaknesses (shout out to my good friend Tim for his observations):
Strengths: When focused, he's proven he can be a point guard. He's improved his shooting and continues to get better. Good in transition, attacking the basket or getting the ball to a teammate. Good ball handler.
Weaknesses: Has to control his emotions, limit turnovers, and improve defense. Also needs to learn how to be a leader on/off the court.
Final thoughts: I think something to benefit him and the team moving forward would be best. A three-year deal, with a player option for the final year worth $15-20 million per year is fair. This gives him security, gives the team flexibility, and opens the door for a max extension if he proves he's worthy after two years. Jalen Brunson signed for 4yr/$104 million with the Knicks this offseason. That would be the ceiling for KPJ since his career numbers are very similar. The fear of him falling apart gives cause for concern, so does the lack of playoff production, which helped Brunson tremendously. I'd also put a Kyler Murray type clause for him to check in with John Lucas and/or a team approved mentor to keep him on the straight and narrow. He's definitely worth keeping around to see what he can develop into, but not at the cost of the team's goals and detriment of the development of others.
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NFL insiders hint at eye-opening future for Houston Texans offense
Dec 7, 2024, 2:38 pm
C.J. Stroud faced criticism in Houston's last few games as the Texans hit a rough patch after losing just two of their first eight games.
But the second-year quarterback remained confident and his strong performance last Sunday helped the Texans (8-5) to a 23-20 win over the Jaguars to enter their bye with a two-game lead atop the AFC South.
“When he is leading and playing the way he is playing, our entire team feeds off of him,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “I am excited for his second year. I think he is showing a ton of growth, he is in a really great spot for us physically, mentally. I really love where he is and I am excited to see how he comes back after the break.”
Stroud threw for 242 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville to leave him ranked fourth in the NFL with 3,117 yards passing this season. That game came after he threw two interceptions in a 32-27 loss to Tennessee a week before for the team’s third loss in four games.
Those two interceptions brought his season total to nine, which are four more than he threw in 15 games a rookie. But the Texans aren’t worried about that statistic and believe he has grown in his second year.
“He’s made a lot of progress,” general manager Nick Caserio said. “There are some plays, like all of our players, that we probably wish he could have back, but happy he’s our quarterback, happy with what he brings to the table. ... Wouldn’t want anyone else leading this team.”
The Texans are in position to win their division for a second straight season despite dealing with several significant injuries on offense. Running back Joe Mixon missed three games early with an ankle injury and leading receiver Nico Collins was sidelined for five games with a hamstring injury.
They also lost four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs for the season when tore an ACL in Week 8.
Mixon leads the team with 887 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns and has added four touchdown receptions. His work in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati has helped the team deal with those significant injuries to the receiving corps.
Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing in seven games.
Stroud has continually raved about Mixon’s contributions on and off the field.
“He’s a servant, a helper,” Stroud said. “That’s ultimately what I want to be as well. Who can I serve and how can I help? That’s ultimately what the game of football is.”
While Mixon has been the team’s most important new acquisition on offense, Danielle Hunter has been Houston’s new defensive star. The defensive end spent his first eight seasons in Minnesota before joining the Texans this year.
He has helped Houston lead the NFL with 84 tackles for loss after piling up 15 this season, which is tied for third most in the league. He also leads the Texans with 10½ sacks to help them rank second with 42.
Hunter been a great addition to a team that already had defensive end Will Anderson Jr., last year’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year. Anderson ranks second to Hunter on the team with 13 tackles for loss and 9½ sacks.
Ryans said this week’s break is much needed for a team that opened the preseason on Aug. 1 in the Hall of Fame game.
“It’s here and we’re going to take advantage of it,” he said. “We’ve been going at it for a long time.”
The Texans need to recharge this week with a brutal stretch of three games in 10 days when they return from their bye. Houston hosts Miami on Dec. 15 before a trip to Kansas City on Dec. 21 and a visit from the Ravens on Christmas Day.
“It’s Christmas and all that, but we can’t worry about that. All we can do is focus on Miami,” Caserio said. “And then when we get through the Miami game, then we kind of turn the page to the next. ... We’re either going to earn it or we’re not. Not to oversimplify it, but that’s the truth.”
The Texans will play those game without starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair after he received a three-game suspension for his violent hit to the head of Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, which led to a concussion.
Al-Shaair will be eligible to return for Houston’s regular-season finale against Tennessee.