AFC SOUTH OUTLOOK

2 intriguing factors connecting Houston Texans to their AFC South foes

Texans CJ Stroud, Jaguars Trevor Lawrence
The division is filled with big-spending teams, young QBs eager to win. Composite Getty Image.

Looking at the recent history of the AFC South makes it easy to envision the Tennessee Titans winning the division, if only because they have Brian Callahan as their new coach.

Doug Pederson capped his first season coaching Jacksonville watching his Jaguars grab the AFC South title away from Tennessee by returning a fumble for a touchdown in the final minutes of the 2022 season.

Then DeMeco Ryans, Houston's fifth head coach in four seasons, teamed up with C.J. Stroud in 2023 to win the division by a game over Jacksonville and Indianapolis. The Titans went from two-time division champs to losers of 18 of 24, costing coach Mike Vrabel his job.

At least one NFL team with a first-year coach has reached the playoffs every year since the 2006 season, and the Titans are the AFC South's only team with a new coach.

“I think that we have a chance to be a pretty good team,” Callahan said.

Callahan knows his Titans are nowhere close to a finished product. His roster was shaped by one of the NFL's biggest free agent spending sprees after Tennessee led the NFL in players used because of injuries for a third straight season in 2023. Callahan also has Will Levis — one of three quarterbacks going into their second season in this division.

The Texans are looking for their first back-to-back titles since 2018-2019 behind Ryans and C.J. Stroud, the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft.

“I feel like the NFL won’t listen to you unless you make plays,” Stroud said.

Houston bulks up

The Texans spent their share of money to add talent around both the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud, and the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, Will Anderson Jr.

Houston signed tight end Dalton Schultz to a three-year deal. Nico Collins got his own three-year, $72 million extension after a 1,297-yard receiving season with eight touchdown catches.

The Texans also traded for four-time Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs, who's just 5 yards shy of 10,000 for his career and who had 1,183 yards receiving last year for Buffalo. The Texans also traded for running back Joe Mixon.

Houston signed defensive end Danielle Hunter to a two-year, $49 million contract after he posted 16 1/2 sacks for Minnesota, along with defensive lineman Denico Autry, who had a career-best 11 1/2 sacks last year for Tennessee. Autry will miss the first six games for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. He apologized for being a distraction as he denied knowingly taking a banned substance.

Big-spending Tennessee

General manager Ran Carthon had to spend big to cover up the draft whiffs and other mistakes by his predecessor, Jon Robinson.

He brought in wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, running back Tony Pollard, center Lloyd Cushenberry, cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, and safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs. Carthon also traded for cornerback L'Jarius Sneed to remake the Titans' secondary. The Titans still have four-time Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who may return from a knee injury in time for the season opener on Sept. 8 at Chicago.

Callahan's task, with his father coaching the revamped offensive line featuring seventh pick overall JC Latham at left tackle, has been turning Levis, the 33rd pick overall in 2023, into a quarterback who can win the AFC South after going 3-6 as a rookie. Having Boyd, who is familiar with Callahan's offense after playing for him in Cincinnati, should be a boost for Levis.

Recovering Jaguars

Jacksonville won the division two years ago after taking advantage of a season-ending skid by Tennessee. Then the Jaguars mimicked that downfall by losing five of their final six to miss out on winning consecutive division titles for the first time since 1998-99.

Owner Shad Khan opened up his checkbook as well, committing nearly half a billion dollars to keep Jacksonville's draft picks in pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen, quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Tyson Campbell for the priciest spending in franchise history. Safety Tashaun Gipson will miss the first six games suspended for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drug policy even as the Jaguars now hope he provides a boost down the stretch.

Pederson fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and seven defensive assistants a day after the season ended. Ryan Nielsen gets to shore up a unit led by some well-compensated draft picks.

Lawrence, the No. 1 pick overall in 2021, now is the oldest starting quarterback in the AFC South. He also has a five-year, $275 million extension with $142 million guaranteed.

“The time’s now," Lawrence said of the pressure to win.

Hey, Anthony Richardson

The franchise that used to dominate this division goes into a second straight season hoping Anthony Richardson can be its new Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck.

First, the fourth overall pick of 2023 has to finish more than one game after injuries limited him to four starts before season-ending shoulder surgery. Richardson's biggest task is getting the Colts into the playoffs for the first time since 2020. He has the same offensive line in front of him and a healthy Jonathan Taylor behind him. Last season, the duo took only one snap in a game together.

The Colts will be without defensive end Samson Ebukam after he tore an Achilles tendon during practice. He led Indy with a career-best 9 1/2 sacks last season and three forced fumbles.

Predicted order of finish

Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Indianapolis.

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AP Sports Writers Kristie Rieken and Michael Marot and AP Pro Football Writer Mark Long contributed to this report.

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CJ Stroud and Jordan Love face off this Sunday.Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Texans head to Green Bay this weekend to play in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the season.

On offense, the Texans will look to maintain the boost Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce provided to the running game last week against the Patriots.

Despite Houston's success with the ground game against the Pats, there are some concerns. Most of the production came from two explosive runs. They ranked in the Bottom 5 in success rate (26.9%) and Top 10 in stuff rate (23.1%) amongst all teams in Week 6.

Air it out

The passing game once again will go through Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs with Nico Collins sidelined. Dell received a large portion of the downfield work that Collins had been doing.

Tank posted the highest route win rate and average separation score for Houston in Week 6, per Jacob Gibbs, and Fantasy Points Data.

In what should be a high scoring game, expect Dell to be Stroud's main target downfield.

What about the defense?

The Texans defense is 30th in EPA against play action, so don't be surprised if that's how the Packers will try to get some big plays down field.

D'Angelo Ross stepped in at corner with Kamari Lassiter injured last week. He lined up at the left corner spot, where Packers receiver Christian Watson will likely run the majority of his routes this week.

With Derek Stingley lining up outside on the right, he'll be facing Romeo Doubs a majority of the time. We expect Doubs will have a quiet day and the Packers will target Watson against Ross, and Jayden Daniels in the slot versus Jalen Pitre.

Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has been dialing up the blitz more and more. And that looks like a good idea once again this week, as Love is 28th in QBR when blitzed this season.

What does Vegas think?

The Packers are favored by 2.5 points, with the total set at 47.5 points.

There are so many more angles to cover in this exciting matchup. Don't miss the video above as we break it all down! And head to the SportsMap Texans YouTube channel right after the game as we react live!

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