THE PALLILOG
Tactical battles Houston Texans must win to deliver upset over Chargers
Jan 9, 2025, 5:03 pm
Can Houston's secondary keep the Chargers in check? Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.
The NFL playoffs don’t begin on Groundhog Day but it seems like it where the Texans are concerned. In their 23 seasons of existence this is the eighth Texans’ season to include postseason play. It’s the eighth time they get in as winner of the AFC South, and every time they have had a home game Saturday afternoon as the first game of Wild Card weekend. They have won five of the seven previous games, which of course has zero bearing on how Saturday’s game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers plays out. Last season DeMeco Ryans was a Coach of the Year candidate for turning the Texans from a three-year horror show into a division champ. This season Ryans coaches opposite a Coach of the Year candidate, as Jim Harbaugh has done a fabulous job flipping the Chargers from a 5-12 mess last season to an 11-6 squad. Harbaugh is familiar with winning at NRG Stadium. He was last here in January as his Michigan Wolverines rolled Washington 34-13 to win college football’s National Championship.
Waaay too many people are being utterly dismissive of the Texans’ chance of winning. It is true that the Texans have been a mediocre team for more of the season than they were a good team. After racing to a 5-1 start, they went 5-6 the rest of the way with exactly zero victories over teams that finished with a winning record. In fact, the Texans only win the entire season over a good team was the 23-20 victory over Buffalo October 6, a game in which the Bills were without their number one wide receiver and best defensive player. Meanwhile, after starting 3-3 the Chargers went an impressive 8-3 the rest of the way. Impressive yes, but it’s not as if the Chargers conquered some stout list of opponents. The only playoff team the Chargers beat this season was the Broncos (twice).
CJ Stroud vs. Justin Herbert
It’s wrong to say that the Texans’ postseason hopes ride all on CJ Stroud, but the fact of the matter is that Stroud was a mediocre quarterback this season. In the Chargers, Stroud will face the defense that gave up the fewest points in the NFL. His QB counterpart Saturday, Justin Herbert, has been clearly the better player. That doesn’t mean Stroud can’t outplay Herbert in this game. Stroud threw 20 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions this season. Meh. Herbert threw a not overwhelming 23 TD passes, but took care of the ball better than any other QB in the league, with just three INTs thrown in 504 pass attempts. The Texans’ defense was second in the NFL with 19 interceptions (the Vikings led with 24). Can it pierce Herbert’s near immunity from picks? The Chargers’ two best offensive linemen are tackles Pro Bowler Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt. If Saturday night we’re saying that Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson clearly got the better of their battles with Slater and Alt, the Texans are a good bet to have their sixth franchise playoff win. If Hunter and Anderson can wreak havoc, that makes more likely Derek Stingley and/or Calen Bullock adding a postseason interception to the five that each snared during the regular season. Herbert was sacked 41 times this year, the Texans ranked fourth in the league with 49 sacks (Stroud was dropped 52 times, the Chargers’ 46 sacks ranked sixth).
One presumes the Chargers will load up defensively against Nico Collins. Obviously the Texans still need to target Collins frequently. But do they have another wide receiver who will make a significant play or two? The Chargers don’t have a Collins-caliber playmaker, but rookie Ladd McConkey has been outstanding. McConkey has 82 receptions at 14 yards per catch (Collins averaged 14.8).
Best of the best
If I say to you “Name three great ex-Chargers,” who are the first three that pop into your head? My three are below.
Path to postseason glory
If you believe in mini-sports miracles, here is the Texans’ dream scenario: They eliminate the Chargers, the Steelers win at Baltimore Saturday night, and the Broncos shock the Bills in Buffalo Sunday. If that trifecta hits, the Texans would be at home vs. the Steelers next week for a berth in the AFC Championship game. Probability of that trifecta hitting? Putting it at 1.8 percent. Hey, that’s vastly better odds than winning the Powerball.
Speaking of dreams, in this year’s tournament there is only one possible Super Bowl matchup that could pit against one another teams that have never reached the Super Bowl. Texans-Lions. The Browns and Jaguars are the only other existing franchises with zero "Big Game" appearances.
My three great ex-Chargers: Dan Fouts, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Junior Seau. Highest honorable mention to Kellen Winslow. Though my favorite Charger ever was begoggled wide receiver John Jefferson.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
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Former major-leaguers are rising to prominent front office roles throughout MLB. Composite Getty Image.
Shortly after his playing career ended, Jerry Dipoto took in a game at Wrigley Field with former big league manager Jim Fregosi. After a particularly nasty strikeout by Eric Gagne, Dipoto laughed.
Fregosi promptly slapped Dipoto on the back of his head.
“He said, ‘I’m just going to remind you today. ... Don’t ever forget how hard that it is to play,’” Dipoto recalled. “And that’s what I think is the thing I remember most, and I think the benefit of the guys who have gone through it, is that they recognize that it is a really hard game.”
That lesson stayed with Dipoto as he made his way to his current job with the Seattle Mariners — and membership in an exclusive club. Dipoto is one of five former major leaguers serving as the top baseball executive for a big league franchise at the moment.
Dipoto, 56, has been the president of baseball operations for Seattle since Sept. 1, 2021. Like Dipoto, Chris Young, 45, was promoted from general manager to president of baseball operations for the Texas Rangers on Sept. 13. Craig Breslow was hired as the chief baseball officer for the Boston Red Sox on Oct. 25, 2023, and Chris Getz was promoted to GM of the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 31, 2023.
Buster Posey, 37, joined the list when the former All-Star catcher was hired as president of baseball operations for the San Francisco Giants in September.
“There are a ton of incredibly successful executives who didn’t play baseball,” said Breslow, 44. “I don’t think it’s a prerequisite, but I do think it provides a level of credibility and empathy given I’ve kind of been on every side of a transaction, or every side of a conversation I’ve had to have with a player or coach. And credibility in terms of really being able to understand what players are thinking about, what they’re going through.”
Under Breslow's leadership, Boston used a complicated contract structure to add Alex Bregman in free agency. Bregman also was being pursued by the Cubs and Tigers before he agreed to a $120 million, three-year deal with the Red Sox.
San Francisco had been struggling to land a major free agent before shortstop Willy Adames agreed to a $182 million, seven-year contract with the Giants in December. Adames said Posey played a major role in his decision.
“My meeting with the team, it was me and him, basically. No agent. Nobody,” Adames said. “So we had a really, really good conversation, and I bought into his plan for this organization, for what he wants to build here in the near future.”
Breslow has a degree from Yale and Young graduated from Princeton, so the five players in charge of major league teams doesn't exactly represent some sort of counterrevolution when it comes to Ivy League grads in baseball.
But today's major-leaguers are increasingly savvy when it comes to the business side of the game, and they have firsthand experience with the data used by front offices as part of their decision-making process.
“Where we were a decade ago to where we are now, there's just so much opportunity to make better decisions nowadays based on the information that we have,” said Getz, 41. “But being well-versed in it now, you know having a former playing background is only going to position you, your résumé is just stronger.”
While that big league career is an asset in a variety of ways, it also creates a unique set of blind spots. Building out a front office that complements one another is key, Dipoto said.
“I learned to adapt along the way to things I didn’t know and to trust people who are smarter than I am to fill in those gaps,” he said, “and to recognize when I’m allowing my want to be a good teammate and my want to love the good teammate, sometimes, you have be able to discern when that doesn’t equal best player fit for this situation.”
There are several more people in position to join the club one day. Brandon Gomes helped the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series last year, serving as the team's GM under Andrew Friedman. Ryan Garko was promoted to assistant GM with the Detroit Tigers in May. Cole Figueroa is an assistant GM for the Rangers.
Kevin Reese and Tim Naehring work for longtime New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, and Josh Barfield is part of Getz's front office with the White Sox.
When it comes to his discussions with players interested in working in baseball operations, Breslow said the conversations provide an indication of the potential for success.
“It becomes pretty clear, generally who has the curiosity, who asks a lot of questions,” he said. "Who wants to learn why we make decisions not just what decisions are being made. Those are the people (that could make the transition).”