Tactical battles Houston Texans must win to deliver upset over Chargers
Jan 9, 2025, 5:03 pm
Can Houston's secondary keep the Chargers in check? Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.
The NFL playoffs don’t begin on Groundhog Day but it seems like it where the Texans are concerned. In their 23 seasons of existence this is the eighth Texans’ season to include postseason play. It’s the eighth time they get in as winner of the AFC South, and every time they have had a home game Saturday afternoon as the first game of Wild Card weekend. They have won five of the seven previous games, which of course has zero bearing on how Saturday’s game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers plays out. Last season DeMeco Ryans was a Coach of the Year candidate for turning the Texans from a three-year horror show into a division champ. This season Ryans coaches opposite a Coach of the Year candidate, as Jim Harbaugh has done a fabulous job flipping the Chargers from a 5-12 mess last season to an 11-6 squad. Harbaugh is familiar with winning at NRG Stadium. He was last here in January as his Michigan Wolverines rolled Washington 34-13 to win college football’s National Championship.
Waaay too many people are being utterly dismissive of the Texans’ chance of winning. It is true that the Texans have been a mediocre team for more of the season than they were a good team. After racing to a 5-1 start, they went 5-6 the rest of the way with exactly zero victories over teams that finished with a winning record. In fact, the Texans only win the entire season over a good team was the 23-20 victory over Buffalo October 6, a game in which the Bills were without their number one wide receiver and best defensive player. Meanwhile, after starting 3-3 the Chargers went an impressive 8-3 the rest of the way. Impressive yes, but it’s not as if the Chargers conquered some stout list of opponents. The only playoff team the Chargers beat this season was the Broncos (twice).
CJ Stroud vs. Justin Herbert
It’s wrong to say that the Texans’ postseason hopes ride all on CJ Stroud, but the fact of the matter is that Stroud was a mediocre quarterback this season. In the Chargers, Stroud will face the defense that gave up the fewest points in the NFL. His QB counterpart Saturday, Justin Herbert, has been clearly the better player. That doesn’t mean Stroud can’t outplay Herbert in this game. Stroud threw 20 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions this season. Meh. Herbert threw a not overwhelming 23 TD passes, but took care of the ball better than any other QB in the league, with just three INTs thrown in 504 pass attempts. The Texans’ defense was second in the NFL with 19 interceptions (the Vikings led with 24). Can it pierce Herbert’s near immunity from picks? The Chargers’ two best offensive linemen are tackles Pro Bowler Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt. If Saturday night we’re saying that Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson clearly got the better of their battles with Slater and Alt, the Texans are a good bet to have their sixth franchise playoff win. If Hunter and Anderson can wreak havoc, that makes more likely Derek Stingley and/or Calen Bullock adding a postseason interception to the five that each snared during the regular season. Herbert was sacked 41 times this year, the Texans ranked fourth in the league with 49 sacks (Stroud was dropped 52 times, the Chargers’ 46 sacks ranked sixth).
One presumes the Chargers will load up defensively against Nico Collins. Obviously the Texans still need to target Collins frequently. But do they have another wide receiver who will make a significant play or two? The Chargers don’t have a Collins-caliber playmaker, but rookie Ladd McConkey has been outstanding. McConkey has 82 receptions at 14 yards per catch (Collins averaged 14.8).
Best of the best
If I say to you “Name three great ex-Chargers,” who are the first three that pop into your head? My three are below.
Path to postseason glory
If you believe in mini-sports miracles, here is the Texans’ dream scenario: They eliminate the Chargers, the Steelers win at Baltimore Saturday night, and the Broncos shock the Bills in Buffalo Sunday. If that trifecta hits, the Texans would be at home vs. the Steelers next week for a berth in the AFC Championship game. Probability of that trifecta hitting? Putting it at 1.8 percent. Hey, that’s vastly better odds than winning the Powerball.
Speaking of dreams, in this year’s tournament there is only one possible Super Bowl matchup that could pit against one another teams that have never reached the Super Bowl. Texans-Lions. The Browns and Jaguars are the only other existing franchises with zero "Big Game" appearances.
My three great ex-Chargers: Dan Fouts, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Junior Seau. Highest honorable mention to Kellen Winslow. Though my favorite Charger ever was begoggled wide receiver John Jefferson.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Astros starter Hunter Brown had a breakout season in 2024, after struggling mightily in 2023, when he posted an ERA over five. And while that's good news for the team heading into 2025, it could present some challenges when looking at the big picture.
That's because we're already hearing speculation that Brown won't be willing to sign an extension with the Astros, preferring to wait until free agency to entertain any long-term contract offers. Some reports indicate Brown had interest in signing a deal last year, but Houston may have missed their window. It's hard to blame the Astros front office for not offering Brown an extension after a miserable 2023 season, but could this development change how the Astros operate moving forward?
Brown won't be a free agent until 2029, so it's not like he's going anywhere anytime soon. But his hiring of Scott Boras suggests he's not looking to give Houston a hometown discount.
Astros ace Framber Valdez is only one season away from free agency, and based on what the market is telling us, he will likely command a contract in the $200 million range. And while his resume is certainly better than Brown's, he's five years older than Hunter, and has a lower strikeout rate.
So if we're projecting forward, which pitcher has more value? Brown is younger and has incredible upside, but he also only has one good season under his belt. While Framber has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball since 2020.
Don't miss the video above as ESPN Houston's John Granato and Lance Zierlein debate which pitcher has more value, and how that could impact the way the Astros manage their young players moving forward.