Nick Wright lays out why CJ Stroud, Texans have best chance to challenge Chiefs

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Nick Wright lays out why CJ Stroud, Texans have best chance to challenge Chiefs
What should we expect from the 2024 Texans? Composite Getty Image.

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off back-to-back Super Bowl championships, and it doesn't look like they're slowing down anytime soon. But if they were to take a step back in 2024, free agency could be one of the main reasons.

The Chiefs were elite on the defensive side of the ball this past season, and two of their best defenders could be moving on to another team. Chris Jones and L'Jarius Sneed are expected to command a ton of money on the open market that KC may not be able to match.

So if that happens and the Chiefs aren't quite as loaded in 2024, which team has the best chance to challenge them? According to most sportsbooks, the Ravens, Bills, and Bengals have the best opening odds to win the AFC if we eliminate the Chiefs from the conversation.

However, FS1's Nick Wright doesn't see it that way. He's a huge Kansas City fan, so he doesn't really see any team as a true threat. But if he has to pick one, he's going with CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans.

Nick makes the case that the Texans are already a playoff team, with Houston winning their division and a playoff game in 2023. They have a great QB, and consistency at head coach and the coordinator positions. He believes Houston has a similar blueprint as the 2021 Bengals, the only team to knock off the Chiefs in the AFC over the last five seasons.

Joe Burrow was in his second year, just like Stroud. He had two big time playmakers at receiver with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. And they were able to load up on defense in free agency before the season.

That does sound a lot like the Texans, who have the seventh-most cap space, according to PFF.

And Nico Collins and Tank Dell provide Stroud with a ton of firepower out wide. If there's a team that can make a big leap and challenge KC, don't be surprised if it's the Texans.

What do the odds say?

If we look at those same odds from above for the AFC, Houston has the sixth-best odds to win the conference and head to the Super Bowl. Here's what the opening odds for 2024 look like.

Kansas City Chiefs +360
Baltimore Ravens +425
Buffalo Bills +475
Cincinnati Bengals +700
Miami Dolphins +1100
Houston Texans +1200
Los Angeles Chargers +1400
New York Jets +1400
Jacksonville Jaguars +1400
Cleveland Browns +2000

Be sure to check out the short video above as Nick makes his case for Houston.

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Should the Rockets be active on the trade market? Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

It’s been a slog on the treadmill of mediocrity for the Astros thus far in 2025. Their 18-18 record heading into a weekend series at Daikin Park vs. the Reds is appropriate. Plenty of good teams will have similar stretches this season. The Astros have to prove that this year’s edition is a good team. Plenty of time for that remains. Reminder that the breakout 2017 Astros had a 74-game stretch over which they went 37-37. 162 games allow for a lot of ebb and flow. Of course, the 2025 Astros’ roster is not close in quality to that of the 2017 squad. The point isn’t that this team could be a 101-game winner but that the 88 victories good enough for a playoff spot last year are still quite plausible this year.

The Rockets achieved mediocrity last season after three seasons as a laughingstock. This season they made the leap to good. While curling up and succumbing to Golden State in the decisive game seven of their first-round playoff series was a disappointment, the Rockets are in excellent position moving forward. Where they go from here should be quite interesting,

OF COURSE the Rockets are going to explore trading Jalen Green. He is obviously their most physically gifted player, but his consistent inconsistency is exasperating. Green’s series against the Warriors was basically an embarrassment with the exception of his 38-point game two outburst. The other six games, a meager nine-point-two points per game. That Green is still just 23 years old means it is not near obligatory they move on from him as Green starts a three-year 105 million dollar contract extension. However, the state of his game and comparison to a few specific players cast enough doubt about Green’s ceiling that declaring him “untouchable” would be ridiculous. During the Golden State series, an NBA play-by-play guy who I think is very good overall once referred to Green as the “Rockets’ superstar.” Anyone, including Green himself, who calls him a superstar either misspoke, was caught up in a moment, or is clueless.

Jalen Green just finished his fourth NBA season. Fairness requires noting that his first two seasons were compromised by being on atrocious Rockets’ squads. That said, Green was on 41-41 and 52-30 teams the past two seasons. In neither of him did he shoot a league average percentage either overall or from behind the three-point line. He did approach the three-point league average of 36 percentage made with his 35.4. That Green is an 80 percent career free throw shooter gives hope the three-point shooting can further develop. Better shot selection sure would help.

Green was the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, one year removed from high school. The player taken ahead of him was Cade Cunningham who also played just one year out of high school before going NBA. Cunningham joined a joke Detroit Pistons team. Cunningham is a much better player than Green at this point.

Other shooting guards who played one year after high school then jumped to the NBA, who were markedly ahead of Green after four NBA seasons include Anthony Edwards (first pick in his draft class), and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), and Devin Booker (13th). In comparison to each Green is a disappointment, though certainly not a bust.

What is head coach Ime Udoka’s bottom-line belief in Green fulfilling his potential? My guess is that cup is not overflowing. The Rockets’ half-court offense simply is not of championship caliber. Can it evolve there with Green, or is he better used as a piece in a trade offer with other players plus draft picks for a Booker or Kevin Duran? The Phoenix Suns are a near assets-less mess of a franchise in dire need of a reset. Durant will be 37 years old when next season starts, but is still a tremendous offensive player who would be a gargantuan half-court offense upgrade for the Rockets. The Rockets have so much draft capital that offering two or three first round picks plus Green, Cam Whitmore, and another player or two to make the salary cap math work would A: not empty out the Rockets’ flexibility going forward and B: have to get the Suns’ attention. If I’m Udoka and General Manager Rafael Stone, I’m making the call.

Courtesy of the Suns, the Rockets hold what is currently the ninth pick in the NBA Draft. The draft lottery is Monday night. The Rockets’ have a three-point-eight percent chance of winning it and the right to make Duke freshman superstar (and Final Four loser to UH) Cooper Flagg the number one pick. There is a 13.5 percent chance the Rockets move up to pick two, three, or four. Otherwise, it’s ninth, or lower if another team or teams vault up the lottery board.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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