Nick Wright lays out why CJ Stroud, Texans have best chance to challenge Chiefs

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Nick Wright lays out why CJ Stroud, Texans have best chance to challenge Chiefs
What should we expect from the 2024 Texans? Composite Getty Image.

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off back-to-back Super Bowl championships, and it doesn't look like they're slowing down anytime soon. But if they were to take a step back in 2024, free agency could be one of the main reasons.

The Chiefs were elite on the defensive side of the ball this past season, and two of their best defenders could be moving on to another team. Chris Jones and L'Jarius Sneed are expected to command a ton of money on the open market that KC may not be able to match.

So if that happens and the Chiefs aren't quite as loaded in 2024, which team has the best chance to challenge them? According to most sportsbooks, the Ravens, Bills, and Bengals have the best opening odds to win the AFC if we eliminate the Chiefs from the conversation.

However, FS1's Nick Wright doesn't see it that way. He's a huge Kansas City fan, so he doesn't really see any team as a true threat. But if he has to pick one, he's going with CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans.

Nick makes the case that the Texans are already a playoff team, with Houston winning their division and a playoff game in 2023. They have a great QB, and consistency at head coach and the coordinator positions. He believes Houston has a similar blueprint as the 2021 Bengals, the only team to knock off the Chiefs in the AFC over the last five seasons.

Joe Burrow was in his second year, just like Stroud. He had two big time playmakers at receiver with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. And they were able to load up on defense in free agency before the season.

That does sound a lot like the Texans, who have the seventh-most cap space, according to PFF.

And Nico Collins and Tank Dell provide Stroud with a ton of firepower out wide. If there's a team that can make a big leap and challenge KC, don't be surprised if it's the Texans.

What do the odds say?

If we look at those same odds from above for the AFC, Houston has the sixth-best odds to win the conference and head to the Super Bowl. Here's what the opening odds for 2024 look like.

Kansas City Chiefs +360
Baltimore Ravens +425
Buffalo Bills +475
Cincinnati Bengals +700
Miami Dolphins +1100
Houston Texans +1200
Los Angeles Chargers +1400
New York Jets +1400
Jacksonville Jaguars +1400
Cleveland Browns +2000

Be sure to check out the short video above as Nick makes his case for Houston.

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The Astros are heading to the Rockies! Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Astros closed out a powerful homestand with a statement series win over the Cubs, led by the continued emergence of Cam Smith and the lockdown stuff of Bryan Abreu. Smith, who seems to live for high-leverage moments, went toe-to-toe with Kyle Tucker and delivered again and again, further cementing his place in Houston’s growing offensive core. Meanwhile, Abreu was simply untouchable—striking out all four batters he faced in a lights-out appearance on Thursday and returning Sunday to toss two scoreless innings in front of Josh Hader’s 23rd straight save. The bullpen continues to impress.

As Houston heads west for a six-game road trip, starting with the Rockies and ending with the Dodgers, the rotation will remain under the microscope. On paper, the Rockies series should be a tune-up—Colorado owns the worst record in baseball. But even in a small three-game set, anything can happen. The Dodgers are a different animal entirely. They’ve been the class of the National League and pose a challenge that may mirror what the Astros saw from the Phillies and Cubs—but this time, Houston won’t have the advantage of home field. Considering the team’s elite pitching and recent play, the Astros should still feel confident, but they’ll need to prove they can sustain this level on the road.

Trade speculation is beginning to swirl, particularly around Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins. Mullins hasn’t lit it up this season—he’s hitting just .213—but his 12 home runs suggest some underlying pop. Houston may believe there's untapped potential in his swing that can be unlocked. It's a move that would fit the Astros’ track record: buying low on a talented player and letting their system do the rest.

Speaking of roster decisions, Christian Walker's bat is officially on watch. Despite showing flashes of life earlier this season, Walker hit just .221 in June and has been dropped to seventh in the lineup. Meanwhile, Jon Singleton has been crushing home runs in Sugar Land and waiting patiently for another big-league shot. The organization has to be thinking about giving Singleton a chance if Walker’s struggles continue.

But not every question has an immediate answer. Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from the injured list was rocky at best, surrendering eight runs in a short outing. Still, the reaction from fans calling for his release is premature at best and delusional at worst. Joe Espada left him in too long, and everyone knew it. It's still June, and McCullers is a proven postseason arm. He’s not going anywhere, not with that contract—and frankly, not with the upside he still offers.

More to the story

Then there's Jeremy Peña. The hope was that his sore ribs were nothing serious. That changed after the homestand, when further imaging revealed a small fracture and landed Peña on the 10-day IL. It’s a frustrating development, but credit the Astros’ medical staff for pushing for clarity—learning from the Yordan Alvarez situation this year. With superagent Scott Boras now representing him, it appeared negotiations were over. But Astros GM Dana Brown revealed on the pregame show this weekend that he’s already reached back out to Boras to reopen the conversation. Whether both sides can agree to new terms is a different story.

So while the Astros leave home riding a wave of momentum, the road ahead holds tougher matchups, key roster questions, and new injury concerns. They’ve shown they’re built to weather all of it. Now they’ll have to prove it.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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*ChatGPT assisted.

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