CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS
A numerical deep dive: Texans' C.J. Stroud, Packers' Jordan Love shine in playoff debuts
Jan 17, 2024, 1:49 pm
CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS
C.J. Stroud set the bar high for playoff debuts and Jordan Love matched it — almost exactly.
One day after Stroud went 16 for 21 for 274 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions to lead Houston past Cleveland in the best playoff performance ever for a rookie quarterback, Love put up almost the exact same line.
Love went 16 for 21 for 272 yards — 2 fewer than Stroud — three TDs and no interceptions to lead Green Bay over Dallas on Sunday.
Both quarterbacks posted passer ratings of 157.2 that are tied for the third-best ever for a quarterback with at least 20 attempts in a playoff game. Peyton Manning had a perfect rating of 158.3 in the Colts' wild-card win against Denver in the 2003 season and Josh Allen had a 157.6 mark in a wild-card game two years ago for Buffalo against New England.
They both broke Lynn Dickey's record for the best passer rating in a first postseason. Dickey had a 150.4 rating for the Packers in the 1982 wild-card round against the Cardinals.
While Love is in his fourth season, Stroud did it as a rookie. He became the eighth rookie quarterback to win a playoff start in the Super Bowl era and can join Brock Purdy (2022), Mark Sanchez (2009) and Joe Flacco (2008) as the only rookies with two in a season with a win on Saturday at Baltimore.
Stroud and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans joined Rex Ryan and Sanchez and John Harbaugh and Flacco as the only rookie coach-QB combos to win a playoff game since the merger.
Stroud wasn't the only rookie who excelled in a playoff debut, with a pair of receivers also having big performances.
Puka Nacua of the Rams followed up a record-breaking regular season, in which he set rookie marks for most catches and yards, by having nine catches for 181 yards and a TD in a loss to Detroit. Nacua broke DK Metcalf's rookie record of 160 yards receiving for Seattle in a playoff game in the 2019 wild-card round against Philadelphia.
That came a day after Kansas City's Rashee Rice had 130 yards receiving in a win over Miami for what is now the seventh-best mark for a rookie in the playoffs.
MISSING SEEDFor the first time since the merger, the team with the second-best record in a conference won't take part in the divisional round.
Dallas became the first No. 2 seed to lose the wild-card game since the playoffs expanded to seven teams per conference in 2020, losing 48-32 to Green Bay on Sunday.
The other No. 2 seeds have gone 7-0, outscoring the opposition by 12.4 points per game.
The only other time the No. 2 seed didn't go straight to the divisional round came in the strike-shortened 1982 season when eight teams per conference made the playoffs. Dallas and Miami won their wild-card round games that season.
Dallas was the 13th team to win at least 12 games in three straight seasons but the only one not to make it to the conference title game in that span.
DUAL THREATSJosh Allen and Patrick Mahomes showed they are almost as dangerous with their legs as their arms come playoff time.
Allen scored on 52-yard run against Pittsburgh on Monday for the second-longest touchdown run for a quarterback in playoff history, behind only Colin Kaepernick's 56-yarder for San Francisco in the 2012 divisional round against Green Bay.
Allen now has 491 yards rushing in his playoff career for the fourth most of any quarterback in the playoffs and second most behind Derrick Henry's 548 since Allen made his playoff debut in the 2019 season.
Mahomes isn't far behind after rushing for 41 more yards in a win on Saturday night against Miami. That gave him 424 yards rushing in his playoff career — fifth best of any player since he made his playoff debut in 2018. He trails only Henry (548), Allen, Sony Michel (477) and Joe Mixon (425).
PICK 6Wild-card weekend was a good one for defenders looking to score.
Houston's Steven Nelson and Christian Harris returned interceptions from Joe Flacco for touchdowns on back-to-back possessions in the Texans' 45-14 win over Cleveland on Saturday.
That marked the second time in NFL history a quarterback threw pick-6s on consecutive drives, with Rich Gannon doing it for the Raiders against Tampa Bay in Super Bowl 37.
Flacco became the fifth quarterback ever to throw multiple pick-6s in a playoff game. Gannon had three in that Super Bowl, and Brett Favre had three against the Rams in the 2001 NFC divisional round.
Jim Hart of the Cardinals threw two against the Rams in 1975 and Washington's Todd Collins threw two against Seattle in a 2007 wild-card game.
The three pick-6s on wild-card weekend are the most for an entire playoffs since there were three in 2012.
LATE-SEASON COLLAPSEThe Philadelphia Eagles' fall from a 10-1 start ended with a lopsided wild-card loss to Tampa Bay.
The Eagles were the 55th team since the merger to win at least 10 of their first 11 games of a season but just the third of those that failed to make it to the divisional round.
Philadelphia joined the 2020 Steelers, who lost to Cleveland in the wild-card round, and the 2019 Patriots, who lost to Tennessee in the wild-card round.
With overnight temperatures dipping into the 20s this week in Houston, it seems good timing to have the warm thoughts of baseball being back, at least spring training games. The Astros have more shakiness about their squad than they have had in nearly a decade, but the Astros still have a nucleus of an American League West contender. With the exits of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, it’s just a notably different nucleus than in recent years.
Jose Altuve is the last remaining mainstay of the greatest era in Astros’ history, and he is one of the biggest stories of their preseason as he for the time being at least is left fielder Jose Altuve. By every indication he is embracing the challenge with class and energy. The obvious impetus for test driving the move is the soon-to-be 35 years old Altuve’s defensive deterioration. It can be tough for the player himself to notice that his range has declined. The voiding of defensive shifts after the 2022 season shined a brighter light on Altuve’s D decline. Still, last season Altuve made his ninth All-Star team and despite also displaying some offensive decline remained the clearly best offensive second baseman in the American League. It’s part of the tradeoff of reducing the defensive workload on Yordan Alvarez, and hoping to upgrade defensively at second with some combo of Mauricio Dubon, Brendan Rodgers, or other.
The natural comparison in Astros’ history of a franchise icon losing his defensive spot and making a late-career position change is to Craig Biggio. Biggio’s All-Star days were behind him when the Astros moved him from second base to center field for the 2003 season because of the signing of free agent Jeff Kent. It spoke to the athlete Biggio was that at 37 years old he could make the move at all. After not quite a season and a half in center, Biggio moved to left when the Astros traded for young stud center fielder Carlos Beltran. Both Kent and Beltran left in free agency after the 2004 season, and Biggio moved back to second for the final three seasons of his career.
Second basemen are often second basemen and not shortstops in part because of their throwing arms. Altuve’s throwing arm will be an issue in left field. Even though Daikin Park has the smallest square footage of fair territory in Major League Baseball because of its left to left-center field dimensions, Altuve’s arm will be a liability. In understandably wanting to put an optimistic spin on things, manager Joe Espada and general manager Dana Brown have talked of how Altuve will be able to get momentum behind throws more so than when playing second. That’s true when camping under a fly ball in the outfield. That is not true when Altuve will have to cut off balls hit toward the left field line, or cutting across into the left-center field gap. There will be balls that would be singles when hit to other left fielders that will become doubles when Altuve has to play them, and baserunners will go from first to third and second to home much more readily. As an infielder Altuve has always been outstanding at running down pop-ups, so there is reason to believe he’ll be solid tracking fly balls in the outfield. However, the reality of a guy who is five feet six inches tall (in spikes) is that there will be the occasional fly ball or line drive that is beyond his grasp that more “normal” sized outfielders would grab. Try to name a good outfielder who stood shorter than five-foot-nine...
Here’s one: Hall of Famer Tim Raines (also originally a second baseman) was (and presumably still is!) five-foot-eight.
Here's another: Hall of Famer Hack Wilson was five-six. Four times he led the National League in home runs topped by a whopping 56 in 1930 when he set the still standing record of 191 runs batted in for a single season.
And another: Hall of Famer five-foot-four “Wee” Willie Keeler. Who last played in 1910.
Just a bit outside
Another element new to the Grapefruit League in Florida (and Cactus League in Arizona) this year is the limited use of what Major League Baseball is calling the Automated Ball Strike System. The ABS is likely coming to regular season games next year. This spring will be our first look at its use in big league games. Home plate umpires making ball and strike calls will not be going the way of the dinosaur. Challenges can be made until a team is wrong twice. Significantly, only the batter, pitcher, or catcher can challenge and must do so within two seconds of the pitch being caught. No dugout input allowed. No time to watch a replay.
The Astros’ spring park in West Palm Beach is not among the 13 facilities set up with ABS cameras. That seems silly given that the Astros share the place with the Washington Nationals. More use would be gotten from, and more data collected there than will be from a park with half the spring games played in it.
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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