THE PALLILOG
Here are critical pieces Texans need to finally finish constructing NFL juggernaut for 2023, beyond
Dec 21, 2023, 2:27 pm
The future is bright for Houston. Photo by Logan Riely/ Getty Images.
A quarterback matchup of Case Keenum versus Joe Flacco in a game between two teams harboring playoff hopes. What year is this, 2017? Six years ago Keenum and the Minnesota Vikings beat Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens. The Vikings went on to make the playoffs, the Ravens missed the playoffs. That has no bearing on this Sunday’s Texans-Browns meeting, but if Keenum over Flacco repeats itself, the Texans become likely albeit no lock to reach the postseason. The 35-year-old Keenum of course only plays with C.J. Stroud missing a second consecutive game while continuing to recover from the concussion he sustained in the Texans' loss at the Jets. The soon-to-be 39-years-old Flacco is the Browns’ fourth different starting QB this season.
The Texans and this version of the Browns are the only two existing franchises to never reach a Conference Championship game. They are the two newest franchises, but no appearances in over 20 seasons each still reeks.
Should the Texans win and the staggering Jaguars (losers of three in a row) fall at Tampa (the Buccaneers have won three in a row) Sunday, the AFC South title is the Texans to grab if they avoid a home loss to the Titans next Sunday and then win at Indianapolis in the regular season finale. It’s a very plausible scenario. At minimum, the Texans winning out guarantees at least a Wild Card. If the Texans are going to win two of their remaining three games and finish 10-7, Sunday is the game to lose. Beating the Browns but losing to the Colts would doom the Texans in all AFC South tiebreakers. The most frustrating in-play scenario would have the Texans finish 10-7 but miss the playoffs while 10-7 Denver, 10-7 Cincinnati, and 10-7 Cleveland all make it. Wait! The Texans beat the Broncos, beat the Bengals, and in this scenario beat the Browns! Moot point if the Colts win out (at the Falcons then home vs. the Raiders and Texans) to win the South at 11-6 while the Texans finish tied with the Jags at 10-7. Ties involving three or more teams in multiple divisions are broken first by elimination within a division. The Jags would have the tiebreaker over the Texans.
Super Bowl aspirations
The following sentence is not hyperbole. Next season the Texans can be serious Super Bowl contenders. No scoffing allowed. Russell Wilson won the Super Bowl in his second season with the Seahawks. Joe Burrow reached the Super Bowl in his second season with the Bengals, that after as a rookie with Cincinnati, winning just two of his 10 starts.
Championship contention hinges on a number of things with Stroud’s health and performance at the top of the list. Armed with tens of millions of dollars of salary cap space plus five draft picks in the first four rounds, General Manager Nick Caserio may face his defining offseason. The task is deepening a roster that now has multiple bona fide star level pieces on both sides of the ball. Fortifying the offensive line has to be a priority, beyond just counting on Tytus Howard being healthy and Kenyon Green not being a total bust. Stroud needs better pass protection. The teams that have allowed more sacks than the Texans this season all stink: Giants, Jets, Commanders, Panthers, Titans, Bears. All of that sorry six except for Washington have also lost their starting quarterback to injury this season. An offensive line more capable of knocking some people off the ball would aid the running game, which would obviously help Stroud also.
However, the Texans’ cap space won’t be nearly as large as the over 70 million dollars it currently appears to be. Not unless the Texans are going to lose some key players. Most significant, pass rusher Jonathan Greenard is going to hit the jackpot. On the books this year at under one-point-two million dollars, Greenard’s breakout 12 and a half sack (and counting) season may make him a 15 million dollars per year guy. Pass rushers get paid. Greenard will be 27 years old at the start of next season. The Texans need to work out an extension with him. Using the franchise tag would give Greenard a 2024 cap figure of more than 20 million dollars.
Other starters approaching unrestricted free agency include defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, cornerback Steven Nelson, tight end Dalton Schultz, running back Devin Singletary, plus the excellent special teams tandem of placekicker Ka’imi Fairbairn and punter Cameron Johnston. If we slot Greenard at a ten million cap figure to start, say, a five year 75 million dollar deal, and everyone else re-signs with no raise from 2023 (highly unlikely) more than 40 million dollars is gone from what currently shows as 2024 cap room. Then deduct another 10 mil or so for the rookie class, and the Texans’ seemingly whopping 70 mil in projected space is more like 20 mil. That’s still enough for Caserio to make a couple of meaningful additions, especially since some additional wiggle room can be created through some contract restructures and a player cut or two. Wide receiver Robert Woods is an obvious release candidate who would cost the Texans 4.75 million dollars in dead cap space but save five million dollars off the bloated 9.75 cap figure if he is on the team.
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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