FAITH RESTORED
How this unforgettable win truly defines the Houston Texans season
Jan 23, 2024, 5:29 pm
The Texans finally have a team we're excited to root for again! Composite Getty Image.
It’s been a few days, but fans are still playing the big, could’ve-been moments of the Houston Texans’ big AFC Divisional showdown last Saturday against the Baltimore Ravens.
To borrow from legendary football coach T.S. Eliot, that’s how the Houston Texans season ended Saturday in Baltimore: not with a bang, but a whimper.
The top-seed Ravens ended the Texans’ miraculously unexpected charge into the playoffs with a smothering, shackling defense, 34-10, in the Divisional round. Although the score was tied 10-10 at the half, the Ravens pounded the Texans into submission with 24 unanswered points in the second half.
The Texans offense, which had excited fans all season with swashbuckling play calling and electrifying rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, inexplicably played tighter than a gas station slot machine along I-10 in Louisiana.
Texans fans on social media groaned when the Texans started a drive or needed a couple yards on third down by running the ball up the middle for no gain. I’m thinking the team needs a “cussin’ jar” on the sidelines next season. Each time the Texans run up the middle, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has to throw a $100 bill in the jar.
Uh, wasn’t it a wide-open offense that brung the Texans to the post-season, including a wild card win at home? What happened? Did the coaching staff forget to take its Prevagen?
What a year
Still, what an amazing season it was for the Houston Texans. Just one year ago, thanks to one of the stupidest coaching decisions in league history by former head coach Lovie Smith, the Texans pulled victory from the jaws of a much-needed defeat and blew the No. 1 pick in the draft. The result was a 3-win season and another last-place finish in the AFC South.
While the Carolina Panthers got their man at No. 1, Bryce Young from Alabama, the Texans had to “settle” for Stroud, who turned in one of the most sensational rookie seasons — ever. Meanwhile, Young is still wandering the Panthers sidelines with his helmet on sideways after getting his brains rattled.
From blown up to blowing up
The Texans blew up the franchise. They started in 2022 by punting vice president Jack Easterby. For a refresher, Easterby was compared to a “pox” and a “cancer” by fans — even an “STD that lingered.” (Ew.)
As I mentioned back then, a Sports Illustrated exposé on Easterby revealed that he brought a “culture of mistrust and constant chaos among staff and players,” arranged for illegal team practices and flouted safety rules during COVID, and reportedly hired private eyes to follow players during their off-hours.
They regrouped and hired new coach DeMeco Ryans — a fan favorite when he played here — who actually faced the field during games this season. They even improved the food at concession stands at NRG Stadium. Speaking of food, name a football stadium anywhere else in America where you can get a smash-hit Trill Burger.
Nowhere, that's where.
Everything that could go right … went right. The team finished with 10 regular season wins plus the wild card victory. Nobody saw any of this coming.
Where do the Texans go from here? Head coach Ryans will get lots of love for NFL Coach of the Year. If Stroud doesn’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year — unanimously — there oughta be an investigation.
Houston's C.J. Stroud selected 2023 PFWA Rookie of the Year and Offensive Rookie of the Year; Texans' Will Anderson Jr. named Defensive Rookie of the Year; All-Rookie Team selected:https://t.co/9u7iFec6Sq pic.twitter.com/YCXNSOVQpj
— Pro Football Writers (@PFWAwriters) January 23, 2024
Don’t take my word for it. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr., whom the Texans drafted at No. 3 right after they drafted Stroud, were just named Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year — respectively — by the Pro Football Writers of America. In the pro football world, that’s a good precursor to the bigger, official NFL award given announced later.
Offensive coordinator Slowik will interview for head coaching positions because it’s well know that the NFL struggles to find white coaches for these jobs. The Texans will be the favorites to win the AFC South next season.
Rekindling the love
More important, the Texans won back the city and its fans. Last year, and a few more years before that, the only business making money was the company that made the tarp to hide empty seats in the upper deck. The sidewalk game day traders couldn’t give away Texans tickets. Literally had no takers.
Now? And for the future? Texans football is back. It’s fun again. We can root for these guys.
Next season can’t get here soon enough.
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The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.
The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.
There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.
College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.
“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”
And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.
KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.
In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.
Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.
That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.
“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”
Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.
Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).
Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.
Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.
“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”
Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.
Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.
The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.
This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.
“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”