THE PALLILOG
Texans evolution: 5 crucial elements shaping CJ Stroud's sophomore campaign
Jan 25, 2024, 2:36 pm
Can CJ Stroud be even better in year 2? Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images.
While the Baltimore Ravens crushing the Texans in the second half for a 34-10 blowout made for a downer of an ending for the Texans’ season, if putting a grade on the season overall that grade has to be an A. After three seasons as a laughingstock organization the Texans regained credibility and then some, and should now be set up for a good-sized window of consistent quality. Only twice in franchise history have the Texans put together back-to-back seasons with 10 or more wins. It took a 17th game to get to 10 this season, but it’s on the books. Only once have the Texans managed three consecutive winning seasons, 9-7 in all three of them under Bill O’Brien in 2014, ’15, and ’16.
Having C.J. Stroud at quarterback offers a ceiling higher than the Texans have ever had. Stroud at an average salary cap figure below 12 million dollars per season over the next three years is a huge boost to the Texans’ roster building opportunities. Stroud’s first season fits nicely among the best rookie campaigns QBs have posted. Stroud will rapidly elevate to Houston sports legend status if his sophomore season ranks among the best second acts. It will be hard to pull off, though it sure offers promise to see him try.
There is plenty of room for growth. The Wild Card round blowout of Cleveland was the only time in its last 10 games that the Texans’ offense put up 25 points. Among the challenges to making another leap are facing a first place schedule instead of a last place schedule, playing the NFC North as opposed to the NFC South, and having eight home games with nine road games as opposed to nine home/eight road this season.
As for Stroud specifically, here are five second season QB results that he will be hard-pressed to equal…
Dan Marino took over as the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback in week six of his rookie season in 1983. Marino was spectacular immediately. The Dolphins won nine of their last 10 games to win the AFC East before losing in their first playoff game. Still, no one could have projected what Marino’s second season would produce: merely the greatest season ever by a quarterback to that time. In 1984 Marino threw for a record-shattering 5,048 yards and 48 touchdown passes. Among the top 30 passing yardage seasons ever, only Marino’s occurred in the 20th century. Before Marino’s 48 TD passes, the record was 36. The ’84 Dolphins went to Super Bowl XIX where the San Francisco 49ers added to their growing dynasty resume of the era with a 38-16 rout. Exactly no one believed that the then 23-year-old Marino would never again play in a Super Bowl. Oops.
The Indianapolis Colts were off a 3-13 season when they made the right call in selecting Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf with the first pick in the 1998 Draft. In 1999 the Colts proceeded to go…3-13, with Manning starting all 16 games and leading the world with 28 interceptions thrown. It got a lot better, quickly. In Manning’s second season the Colts had the greatest one season turnaround in NFL history, inverting their record to 13-3. The Colts would however lose their first playoff game, to the ex-Oilers who would wind up losing the Super Bowl that season.
Tom Brady threw three passes as a rookie in 2000. He was to be New England’s backup to Drew Bledsoe again in 2001, but then came the most transformative injury in NFL history. Bledsoe was knocked out by a vicious hit in the Patriots’ second game of the season. Brady took over, and in his second season the Patriots launched their dynasty by winning the “Tuck Rule” AFC Championship game over the Raiders and then as a 14-point underdog winning Super Bowl XXXVI over the St. Louis Rams.
Brady famously was the 199th pick in his draft class. Russell Wilson went number 75 overall in the third round to Seattle in 2012 (18 picks after Brock Osweiler). Wilson had a fabulous rookie season leading the Seahawks to an 11-5 record plus a playoff win. His second season was even better: 13-3 and a 43-8 Super Bowl XLVIII demolition of Manning and the Denver Broncos.
Most recently, Joe Burrow’s rookie season with the Cincinnati Bengals ended 10 games in with torn anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments in his left knee. Burrow made it back to start his second season on time. 16 games, 4614 passing yards, and 34 touchdown passes later, Burrow led the Bengals to three playoff wins and Super Bowl LVI where they fell three points short versus the Rams.
C.J. Stroud is unlikely to ultimately rate on par historically with Manning and Brady. After all, that’s unlikely for every QB who comes along for all eternity. But Stroud had a vastly more successful rookie season than both. Only seven and a half months until we start seeing what Stroud has for his second act season.
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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