What’s really behind CJ Stroud’s struggles and growing frustrations over Texans gaslighting
REALITY CHECK
28 November 2024
REALITY CHECK
Coming off a frustrating loss to the Titans, the Texans head to Jacksonville looking to get back on track against the Jaguars.
With both CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans under the heaviest scrutiny of their tenure, a victory heading into the off-week after Sunday's game feels more critical than ever.
Stroud is taking heat for his uptick in interceptions, and Ryans is being called out for his refusal to admit that the offense is the main reason the team is losing games.
It's pretty amazing to see Ryans double down on the offense not being the problem when we know how pathetic they have been in the second half of games.
Here are some stats from PFF to put the issues with the offense in perspective:
In Houston's last 6 games, they have 1 second half TD, over 30 drives. Which was Joe Mixon's 1-yard TD in garbage time vs. Dallas.
They had 7 drives of 5 plays or fewer vs. the Titans.
The Texans have 56 punts on the season, 3rd-most in the NFL.
Only 3 times this season in the entire NFL has a team been unable to gain a single first down on the ground. Two of them are the Texans. Verses theTitans and Vikings.
Historic performances
There is clearly an issue. The Texans continue to lose games in historic fashion. Whether it's a game in which they sack Will Levis a whopping 7 times in the first half, or they find a way to lose to the Lions after intercepting Jared Goff 5 times. The Texans are making history, and not in a good way. If DeMeco and the team can't admit there's a problem with Bobby Slowik and his offense, how are they going to fix it?
Stroud's regression
It's apparent to anyone watching the Texans that Stroud isn't playing as well as he did last year, but it's not all on him. And anyone calling him "CJ Fraud" needs to have their eyes checked.
The pass protection and scheme have been atrocious in 2024, and as you can see from the stats, the running game has been bad too.
Joe Mixon has under 2-yards per carry in two of the team's last three games. The Texans o-line is also one of the worst run blocking units in the NFL, per PFF.
In the video below, we discuss some of the most impactful plays from the Texans' loss to the Titans. Stroud's interception where he underthrew Nico Collins, and the 3rd and 9 play with about 2 minutes left in the game before Ka’imi Fairbairn missed a short field goal.
Conclusion. The Texans scheme and the play of the o-line are much more at fault than Stroud.
On the interception, the Texans had 7 pass protectors to deal with 4 rushers, and Stroud was still hurried.
What happened? Here's the short answer.
Right tackle Tytus Howard gets beat and the defender falls at CJ's feet, making him step up. Juice Scruggs and Jarrett Patterson lose a double team to the DT, which allows pressure right up the middle.
Right guard Shaq Mason runs all the way to the left edge to pick up the outside pass rusher. He barely got there in time and left a massive hole up the middle in the process. Mason also had help from a TE and RB. No doubt, CJ should have made a better throw, but he shouldn't have been under this much pressure to begin with.
On the 3rd and 9 play, Stroud had a free rusher in his face immediately and was lucky to throw the ball away. We get into more detail in the video about what caused the pressure and who deserves the blame for the play. Let's just say this was easily avoidable.
Finally, we share our game preview for this week's matchup against the Jaguars. If there was ever a week for the Texans passing game to take a step forward, this is it.
The Jags defense allows 28.7 PPG, which is 30th in the league. Their pass defense is dead last in the league, and they're 31st in completion percentage.
What does Vegas think?
The Texans are favored by four points, and the total is set at 43.5.
Don't miss the video above for the full discussion, our predictions for Texans-Jags, and much more!
Despite a last-minute comeback attempt by Gonzaga on Saturday, the Cougars defeated the Bulldogs and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight NCAA Tournament.
Houston will face the No.4 seed Purdue, who made it to the championship game last year.
The Boilermakers will be one of the toughest opponents the Cougars have faced thus far and will essentially have the home-court advantage with the game taking place in Indianapolis.
Despite the daunting matchup on paper, Houston is currently an -8.5 favorite to win this game. The Cougars should be able to handle Purdue so long as their offense stays hot and they continue to play defense at an elite level.
Keep the offense flowing
Houston guard LJ Cryer matched a career-high with 30 points against Gonzaga and has been the offensive focal point of this team.
This season, the Baylor transfer has averaged 15.6 points per game and has stepped up to be one of the unquestioned leaders of this team.
In addition to Cryer, the Cougars have Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp, who can carry the offensive load as they did during the Big 12 Tournament and against SIUE on Thursday.
J’Wan Roberts is another key factor for Houston’s success. The senior forward seems to have recovered from his ankle injury and has been a productive player since returning to the lineup.
Roberts leads the team in rebounds and is one of the most efficient scorers for the Cougars, averaging more than 50% from the field over his last five seasons.
Houston’s dynamic offense and elite defense makes this team one of the toughest to beat during the tournament.
Containing Purdue’s stars
The Boilermakers have two proficient scorers on their team, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, who each average over 15 points per game.
Kaufman-Renn scored 22 points in his previous game against McNeese State and has been one of Purdue’s best players for most of this year.
Roberts and Joseph Tuggler will likely be assigned to the junior forward to slow down his offense, forcing his teammates to step up.
Smith is Purdue’s second-leading scorer, averaging 16 points per game, and has the most assists and steals for the Boilermakers this season.
Both Uzan and Cyrer, who have been elite parameter defenders, will cover the Purdue guard and limit his production.
Containing both Kaufman-Renn and Smith will be Houston’s top priority and the key to come away victorious.
Play Cougar basketball
Head coach Kelvin Sampson has now made it to at least the Sweet 16 six consecutive times and has his team well-positioned to make another deep tournament run.
Since arriving in Houston, the 69-year-old coach has turned this program from an afterthought to one of the best basketball teams in the country year after year.
Sampson’s key to his success is instilling a defensive-first mentality into his team and getting the best effort out of his players.
This season is no different, as Houston has the number-one ranked defense in the nation and is holding their opponents to 58.4 points per game on average.
If the Cougars can create consistent offense and continue playing defense at an elite level, they should win this game with ease and advance to the Elite 8 for the first time in three years.
The Houston-Purdue game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium on Friday at 9 pm. The winner will play either Kentucky or Tennessee in the next round.