Why Houston Texans appear to be in driver's seat if they take the ultimate plunge
Mel Kiper Jr. released his latest mock draft on Tuesday, which included an interesting scenario about how the Houston Texans could trade up to have the No. 1 overall pick.
Kiper tossed out the idea that Houston could put together a package similar to one used by the Chicago Bears in 2017 to take Mitchell Trubisky.
Chicago gave up its high first round pick, which was the No. 3 overall selection, the No. 67 pick, which was a third round selection, and pick No. 111, which was a fourth round selection. It also included its 2018 third rounder.
Houston currently holds picks No. 2, No. 12. No. 33 (second round), No. 65 (third round, No. 73 (third round), a fourth, a fifth and four sixth round picks in the 2023 draft. In 2024, the Texans have two first round picks, a second, a third, two fourths, a fifth and two seventh round picks.
So what could a package by the Texans look like if they opted to put together a similar offer? Sticking to Kiper’s script, in which the package follows a similar structure to the Bears’ one in 2017, Houston can offer the second overall pick, the No. 65 pick, its fourth round pick this season and its third round pick in 2024.
In this scenario, the Texans move up to No. 1 to take whoever they believe is their guy at quarterback, keep their No. 12 pick, their second, their second third round pick, a fifth and the plethora of sixth round picks. They also get to keep both of their firsts in 2024.
While this could seem like a small price to pay to get a franchise quarterback, the Texans are competing, most notably, with their AFC South rival foes, the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts have the No. 4 overall pick, pick No. 35, pick No. 79, pick No. 106, pick No. 140, pick No. 164, pick No. 223 and pick No. 238 for the 2023 draft. They also have their first, second, Washington’s third round pick and a fourth in terms of notable capital for 2024.
Looking at what the Colts can offer, the Texans do not need to give up their second, first-round pick. With only three picks in the top 80 for 2023, there is not much of a market the Colts can create to shake things up if the Texans are fully committed to moving up one spot and offer the package the Bears did in 2017.
Similar to the Colts, the Las Vegas Raiders only have three picks in the top 80 in 2023, which are picks No. 7, No. 38 and No. 70. The Panthers have pick No. 9, No. 39 and No. 61 in 2023.
Because the Texans have so much draft capital, if Houston really wants to move up one spot, there is not much a team can offer to trump the Texans even if they do not give up the No. 12 overall pick. Unless a team is willing to trade their first round selection in 2024. Then all bets are off.
Houston has five picks in the top 80 for 2023. They also have three guaranteed picks in the top 64 for 2024. With that much artillery, the only question the Texans need to answer is if any quarterback in this year’s draft is worth it.