MAKE IT OR BREAK IT

How Davis Mills can prove he deserves the keys to the Houston Texans franchise

Jul 27, 2022, 11:22 am

Davis Mills will get every opportunity to prove he's the guy this year. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.

The Houston Texans have one of the unique quarterback situations in all football. This isn’t to say the situation is good, but it is unique. It will be all about Davis Mills, and he will either keep the attention of the fanbase and management or force their eyes to Saturdays.

Davis Mills is the rare middle-round pick to have a full season of starting games all to himself. Rarely, does this happen in the NFL. Since 2000, nine third-round quarterbacks have started a majority of their team’s games in their first two seasons. All those quarterbacks played at least 35 games in college. Mills played in 14 college games. In fact, he’s played in 27 football games the past four football seasons.

A successful season from Mills means he gets to start another season. The Texans would also be on their way to maximum financial advantage: a solid quarterback on a cheap contract. Failure in 2022 means the Texans are using the 2023 NFL Draft to find their next quarterback.

How does Davis Mills prove he can cut it for the Texans? All he must do is have a supersized version of his rookie year.

Two wins, 16 touchdowns, and a 35.5 QBR doesn’t delight and even a 50 percent improvement might not be enough for Mills. The improvement for Mills though was immense. If he improves as much as he did from the start of the year to the end, he will be the quarterback for the Texans in 2023.

Mills had one of the worst training camp practices I have ever seen in my life last year. He was constantly missing players when there weren’t defenders. He threw easily interceptable passes. It was horrid.

Two months later in his third career start, he turned in one of the best performances a rookie has ever had against a Bill Belichick-led defense. Two months after that, he led the Texans past the Los Angeles Chargers and second-year phenom Justin Herbert. Mills put together a final month that held off any real competition for his job.

The 2023 season is all about growth for Mills. If he can grow as much as he did from that awful summer day to the best of his performances, he will play enough to keep his job. This is where Mills is an exciting element for the upcoming season. He is an unknown possessing an opportunity to rewrite his future and the team’s as well.

He must keep being dangerous in the red zone. It is necessary he continues to be successful passing the ball deep as new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton pushes the ball more than in recent years. There can’t be any horrible games and only a few bad ones. Kyle Allen is the backup for Mills and won’t play unless there is an injury to Mills.

It will be a 17-game rollercoaster for the Texans and Mills, and only if he eliminates doubt through growth, will he get to ride the rollercoaster again in 2023.

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THE PALLILOG

Here's how the Astros can reap the benefits from latest pitching shakeup

The Astros are utilizing a 6-man rotation. Composite Getty Image.

The Astros should schedule an Old-Timers Game, if not annually maybe every other year. Only the Yankees have regularly played Old Timers Games and it’s a highlight in the Bronx every season. The Astros have plenty enough history to welcome back an ample number of guys to make for a fabulous event. Maybe they could tie it into their now annual Hall of Fame Weekend. Anyway, don’t you feel that if Jose Altuve took part in an Old Timers Game in 2050 he’d bang out a couple of hits, and then if the Astros played him in the regular game he’d line one more hit somehow, at age 60?

After missing the first 43 games of the season while recovering from his broken thumb, Altuve went 0 for four in his first game back, but has since been generally fantastic with his OPS through nine games played at 1.013. It won’t stay that high, but Altuve is a direly needed upgrade to the Astros’ offense which has been utterly mediocre. Offense is the reason the Astros continue to look up at the Texas Rangers in the American League West. The Rangers’ offense has been fantastic, outscoring the Astros by a whopping 100 runs through the first third of the season.

As the regular season entered its middle third this week, the Astros are in the middle of playing a game in 17 consecutive days. It’s their longest stretch of the season without an off day. They are inserting Ronel Blanco as a sixth starting pitcher in the rotation for a couple of turns. The point of mixing in a sixth starter isn’t that the Astros are teeming with guys who belong in a big league rotation. The 29-year-old Blanco is not a notable prospect. This is about lightening the load a little on two guys: Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown.

In becoming a rotation mainstay last season, Javier blew past his previous biggest season workload by nearly 50 innings. He’s on pace to go another 25 innings beyond that this year without even accounting for the playoffs. Hunter Brown last year set his professional high with 130 innings pitched encompassing work with the Space Cowboys and Astros. Brown is on pace for about 170 innings this regular season. That’s a significant jump, and of course the Astros are hoping for another postseason of multiple rounds. Javier, Brown, and Framber Valdez are the three most critical pitchers on the staff, and the Astros hope they remain healthily so for several more years.

Lance McCullers’s latest recovery setback makes his plight increasingly sad. Well, except for him on payday. The odds now lopsidedly favor McCullers never again pitching a near fully healthy and effective season. His only one to date was 2021 (until he broke down in the playoffs), the year before his five year 85 million dollar contract kicked in. McCullers pulls down 17 mil this year (And again next year. And in 2025. And 2026), exactly two and a half times what Framber Valdez makes. I reckon Framber’s representation is aware of this, as it is of the five year 63 million dollar deal the Astros struck with Cristian Javier. Framber is more than three years older than Javier, but has been better, and can hit free agency after the 2025 season, the same time Javier could have gone to market.

Timing isn’t everything but it darn sure can matter. The Astros’ two best relief pitchers through May were Hector Neris and Phil Maton. Neris enters June with a 1.19 earned run average, Maton even better with a teeny-weeny 0.68 ERA. Maton has been especially amazing, given that last year while not pitching very well he posted his career best ERA at 3.84. His 2022 ended ignominiously when after giving up a hit to his brother Nick in the regular season finale, Phil took the ding-a-ling of the week award by breaking his pitching hand punching his locker, sidelining him for the postseason. The Hurt Locker won the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2010. Now Maton is up for Best Pitcher (per inning worked). Both Neris and Maton were James Click acquisitions. Both become free agents after this season.

Up next

Four games with the Angels at Minute Maid Park through the weekend mean the amazing Shohei Ohtani is in town. It’s “Sho-time” on the mound Friday night in a doozy of a pitching matchup with Framber, with Ohtani batting in at least three of the four games. In one player the Angels have a pitcher as good as Cristian Javier and a hitter better than Kyle Tucker. And the Angels will probably miss the playoffs again anyway. And then lose Ohtani in free agency. After the Angels series the Astros are on the road next week. They start with four games at Toronto against the Blue Jays’ very potent lineup, then it’s three at Cleveland vs. the Guardians whose offense has been pathetic so far this season.

Walk this way

Geek Astro factoid of the week: Jeremy Pena drew two walks in Tuesday’s win over the Twins. In his rookie season, Pena had only one two walk game, also in May, also against the Twins. Tuesday’s bases on balls finally got Pena into double digits for the season. He has just 11 walks drawn (largely explaining his weak .307 on-base percentage) vs. 50 strikeouts.

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Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule it goes up at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, is available there for playback at any point, and also becomes available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as:

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