How critical Texans returns could tilt make-or-break stretch for Houston
THE STAKES ARE HIGH
13 December
THE STAKES ARE HIGH
Coming off their bye week, the Texans host the Dolphins with big playoff implications at stake. A win over Miami paired with a Colts loss secures another playoff berth for Houston.
Injuries will be a factor in this contest, with guard Juice Scruggs (foot) expected to be unavailable and safety Jalen Pitre now out for the year with a pectoral injury.
The Texans will also be without LB Azeez Al-Shaair (suspension), but a glimmer of hope has arrived as LB Christian Harris has returned to practice after missing the entire season up to this point.
Houston #Texans Thursday Injury Report for Week 15 vs. the Miami Dolphins: pic.twitter.com/7cDUTFbFZV
— Houston Texans PR (@TexansPR) December 12, 2024
Left guard Kenyon Green has also returned to practice and could be available this Sunday as well. If he's not, look for Zach Thomas, who was claimed off waivers from the Patriots about a month ago, to step in. Offensive line play and protection in general will be a main area of focus once again, as the Texans are arguably the worst in the NFL in this category.
This is most damning set of stats I've seen regarding the #Texans offense.
From no. 1 to no. 20 - 4.7% gap
From no. 21 to no. 31 - 4.9% gap
From no. 31 to Texans - 4.9% gap
Last in blown blocks by more than 1 BB per game.
Last in QB pressures & 50 more BB+PR than any other team https://t.co/vwAS16Diay
— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) December 11, 2024
As you can see from the graphic above, the Texans have blown a block or allowed a pressure on over 30% of their offensive plays, and the next closest team is the Bears at 25.4 %.
Speaking of blocking, the Texans face three of the best teams against the run down the stretch (Chiefs, Ravens, Titans). With that being the case, let's hope that Stroud and the Texans found some answers in the passing game during the bye week.
If the Texans can keep Stroud upright, perhaps we see a resurgence from Tank Dell, who has seemingly disappeared from the offense. Tank hasn't scored since October 13, and has only recorded one game with over 100 yards all season.
Swarm!
On defense, the Texans will have their hands full with the Dolphins explosive offense. Miami has scored 32 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games.
The Texans are averaging just under 24 PPG this season, so they could really use a breakout game from the offense to help cement a victory.
Houston has the best duo of pass rushers in the league, but they will be challenged against Tua Tagovailoa, who gets rid of the ball extremely quickly and accurately.
Tua also has two speedsters in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle that can take a short pass to the house at any given moment. Speed could be the difference in this contest, but the Texans do have two corners in Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter that are both Top 3 in lowest catch rate allowed this year.
DBs with the lowest Catch Rate Allowed this season 🔒
1. Kamari Lassiter - 42.0%
2. Nate Wiggins - 43.8%
3. Derek Stingley Jr. - 44.6%
4. Donte Jackson - 49.1%
5. Kristian Fulton - 50.0%
6. Jakorian Bennett - 51.1%
7. Jaylon Johnson - 51.2%
8. Denzel Ward - 51.9%
9. Jaycee Horn… https://t.co/muJHduiHQn pic.twitter.com/nVJlKYsWwc
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 11, 2024
What does Vegas think?
The Texans are favored by 3 points and the total is set at 46.5, which is the third-highest this week.
Don't miss the video above as we break down this week's game, the final stretch of the season, and much more!
Also, be sure to watch Texans on Tap with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan live following every Texans game on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel!
It was midway through the third quarter of the Oklahoma City-Houston NBA Cup semifinal matchup on Saturday night. Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had just made a short jumper in the lane and, to his delight, a time-out was immediately called.
He needed it.
He retreated to midcourt, crouched down, propped himself up by his fingertips and took deep breath after deep breath. It was that sort of night. And given the way the Rockets and Thunder have defended all season long, such a game was predictable.
In the end, it was Oklahoma City 111, Houston 96 in a game where the teams combined to shoot 41%. The immediate reward for the Thunder: two days off to recover. The bigger reward: a matchup with Milwaukee on Tuesday night for the NBA Cup, with more than $300,000 per player the difference between winning and losing.
“That's what defense does for you,” said Thunder coach Mark Daigneault, whose team has held opponents to 41% shooting or worse a league-best 11 times this season — and is 11-0 in those games. “It keeps you in games.”
The Rockets-Thunder semifinal was basketball, with elements of football, rugby, hockey and probably even some wrestling thrown in. It wasn't unusual. It's how they play: defense-first, tough, gritty, physical.
They are the two top teams in the NBA in terms of field-goal percentage defense — Oklahoma City came in at 42.7%, Houston at 43.4% — and entered the night as two of the top three in scoring defense. Orlando led entering Saturday at 103.7 per game, Oklahoma City was No. 2 at 103.8, Houston No. 3 at 105.9. (The Thunder, by holding Houston to 96, passed the Magic for the top spot on Saturday.)
Houston finished 36.5% from the field, its second-worst showing of the season. When the Rockets shoot 41% or better, they're 17-4. When they don't, they're 0-5.
“Sometimes it comes down to making shots,” Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. “Especially in the first half, we guarded well enough. ... But you put a lot of pressure on your defense when you're not making shots.”
Even though scoring across the NBA is down slightly so far this season, about a point per game behind last season's pace and two points from the pace of the 2022-23 season, it's still a golden age for offense in the league. Consider: Boston scored 51 points in a quarter earlier this season.
Saturday was not like most games. The halftime score: Rockets 42, Thunder 41. Neither team crossed the 50-point mark until Dillon Brooks' 3-pointer for Houston gave the Rockets a 51-45 lead with 8:46 left in the third quarter.
Brooks is generally considered one of the game's tougher defenders. Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the game's best scorers. They're teammates on Canada's national team, and they had some 1-on-1 moments on Saturday.
“It's fun. It makes you better,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “That's what this league is about, competing against the best in the world and defensively, he is that for sure. And I like to think that of myself offensively. He gives me a chance to really see where I'm at, a good test. I'd say I handled it pretty well.”
Indeed he did. Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 32 points, the fifth instance this season of someone scoring that many against the Rockets. He's done it twice, and the Thunder scored 70 points in the second half to pull away.
“We knew that if we kept getting stops we would give ourselves a chance,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “And we did so.”