How critical Texans returns could tilt make-or-break stretch for Houston

THE STAKES ARE HIGH

How critical Texans returns could tilt make-or-break stretch for Houston
The Texans have reached the most challenging part of their schedule. Composite Getty Image.

Coming off their bye week, the Texans host the Dolphins with big playoff implications at stake. A win over Miami paired with a Colts loss secures another playoff berth for Houston.

Injuries will be a factor in this contest, with guard Juice Scruggs (foot) expected to be unavailable and safety Jalen Pitre now out for the year with a pectoral injury.

The Texans will also be without LB Azeez Al-Shaair (suspension), but a glimmer of hope has arrived as LB Christian Harris has returned to practice after missing the entire season up to this point.

Left guard Kenyon Green has also returned to practice and could be available this Sunday as well. If he's not, look for Zach Thomas, who was claimed off waivers from the Patriots about a month ago, to step in. Offensive line play and protection in general will be a main area of focus once again, as the Texans are arguably the worst in the NFL in this category.

As you can see from the graphic above, the Texans have blown a block or allowed a pressure on over 30% of their offensive plays, and the next closest team is the Bears at 25.4 %.

Speaking of blocking, the Texans face three of the best teams against the run down the stretch (Chiefs, Ravens, Titans). With that being the case, let's hope that Stroud and the Texans found some answers in the passing game during the bye week.

If the Texans can keep Stroud upright, perhaps we see a resurgence from Tank Dell, who has seemingly disappeared from the offense. Tank hasn't scored since October 13, and has only recorded one game with over 100 yards all season.

Swarm!

On defense, the Texans will have their hands full with the Dolphins explosive offense. Miami has scored 32 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games.

The Texans are averaging just under 24 PPG this season, so they could really use a breakout game from the offense to help cement a victory.

Houston has the best duo of pass rushers in the league, but they will be challenged against Tua Tagovailoa, who gets rid of the ball extremely quickly and accurately.

Tua also has two speedsters in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle that can take a short pass to the house at any given moment. Speed could be the difference in this contest, but the Texans do have two corners in Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter that are both Top 3 in lowest catch rate allowed this year.

What does Vegas think?

The Texans are favored by 3 points and the total is set at 46.5, which is the third-highest this week.

Don't miss the video above as we break down this week's game, the final stretch of the season, and much more!

Also, be sure to watch Texans on Tap with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan live following every Texans game on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel!

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Will this finally be the year Houston advances? Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images.

Andy Reid remembers quite well the previous time the Texans visited Kansas City for a divisional playoff game.

He was still considered among the best coaches to have never won the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes was still a young, record-setting quarterback full of potential.

The Texans had Deshaun Watson, rather than C.J. Stroud, under center and he threw a pair of touchdown passes to help Houston race to a 24-0 lead inside a stunned Arrowhead Stadium.

“We didn't start off very well,” Reid recalled, “that's for sure.”

Their finish was nearly perfect. The Chiefs scored 28 second-quarter points and rolled from there to a 51-31 win, which not only sent them to the AFC title game, but provided the momentum that ultimately earned Reid his first Super Bowl title.

“Getting down like that,” Mahomes said, “things could have gone south real fast. I was proud of the resilience of the guys.”

Now, the Chiefs hope another win over the Texans on Saturday can catapult them toward an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title, and their fourth in a six-year span — a run that began with that divisional win over Houston on Jan. 12, 2020.

“I mean, it's been a fun run up to this point. But we want to get to that ultimate goal,” Mahomes said this week. “We know it's going to be challenging. So we have to just really focus on the day and how we can get better, and try to win the game.”

The Chiefs (15-2), who earned the No. 1 seed and lone first-round bye, haven't played many of their starters since clinching on Christmas Day. They chose to rest Mahomes and such stars as Travis Kelce and Chris Jones during a meaningless Week 18 loss in Denver, and risked the potential for rust to set in over 24 days between games against the need to get healthy.

The Texans (11-7), meanwhile, have started to build some momentum after beating the Titans in their regular-season finale and blowing out the Chargers during the wild-card round. They lost in Kansas City the weekend prior to Christmas, but neither team is putting much stock in that matchup — one of three they played during a brutal 11-day stretch.

“That was that week. It's different circumstances that happened in that particular week,” Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said. “Now it's a new game for me. Fresh start. New game. We will attack it just like it's our first time playing these guys again.”

This is the sixth time the Texans have played for a spot in the AFC championship game. They have lost every one of the previous five.

“That would be huge. I didn’t know that, but I think that will be a huge accomplishment," Stroud said. "This team is really motivated to go up there and play some good ball against a great Kansas City team that has been in these moments forever. It is going to take all of us and take a lot of execution to get that done, so we have to be on our A-game.”

Tricky tackle situation

The Chiefs struggled most of the season to protect Mahomes' blind side, eventually moving All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney outside with Mike Caliendo in his place. The question now is whether they will stick with that lineup or move Thuney back to his natural spot and start D.J. Humphries, a one-time Pro Bowl left tackle who has played just two games because of injuries this season.

Watson's return

Jaylen Watson could play for Kansas City for the first time since breaking his ankle Oct. 20 against San Francisco. The third-year cornerback had become a reliable starter in the defensive backfield before getting hurt.

“Not telling you he could play a whole game,” Reid said, “but I think he has a chance to play for sure.”

A ‘special’ group

The Texans got two big plays from special teams in last week’s playoff win. D’Angelo Ross blocked a punt in the first quarter before returning a blocked extra point for two points in the fourth. The blocked punt was the first in a playoff game since the 2021 season and the PAT return was the first in NFL playoff history.

“The special teams unit came up big for us making some impact plays,” Ryans said. “Any time special teams can affect the game where it is taking the ball away, blocking the kick, it changes the game drastically.”

Mr. Reliable

Nico Collins has continued to star for the Texans despite the loss of fellow wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season-ending injuries. Collins led the team with 1,006 yards receiving in the regular season despite missing five games with an injury, and he had a franchise playoff-record 122 yards receiving and a touchdown against the Chargers last weekend.

“Very proud of Nico for what he’s been able to accomplish just all year, everything that he’s done,” Ryans said. “Even when everyone knows the ball is going to him, he still makes the play. So, excited for him and just his trajectory as a pro."

Golden papa

It was an exciting bye weekend for Mahomes, whose wife, Brittany, gave birth to their third child on Sunday. They named their new daughter Golden Raye, and she joins a family that includes another daughter, Sterling, and a son nicknamed Bronze.

“It was cool that football was on TV while I was in the hospital, so I was able to watch a little bit,” Mahomes said. “Brittany was kind enough to let us watch football as she was getting ready to give birth.”

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