DRAFT SZN
Here are the underlying factors heavily influencing Houston Texans draft
Apr 25, 2023, 6:53 pm
The NFL Draft gets started this Thursday night!Composite Getty Image.
Houston Texans’ fans need to remember one thing come Thursday night’s NFL draft.
Back in 2011, you pee’d and moaned and threw up your hands when the Texans announced they were taking a defensive lineman named J.J. Watt with their first pick.
Watt went on to become the greatest and most celebrated player in Texans franchise history. So don’t judge a defensive draft pick by its cover. Even if it’s a cover 4 zone.
With the 2023 draft clock ticking down, it’s still anybody’s guess who the Texans will take with the coveted No. 2 pick. So-called experts are all over the draft board predicting which talented student-athlete will be a Texan next season.
I heard one ESPN analyst said, “only general manager Nick Caserio knows who’ll the Texans’ll will pick.”
And I’m thinking, yeah, right after new head coach DeMeco Ryans tells Caserio who the Texans will pick. It’s Ryans’ show. This week Caserio met with the press and answered questions about the draft sounding like the boys’ lawyer in My Cousin Vinny – the boys’ first lawyer before Vinny Gambini and Mona Lisa Vito show up to save their hides.
Experts’ mock drafts have the Texans taking Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud. They have the Texans taking Alabama defensive All-American Will Anderson. Others go a different direction, like ESPN 97.5 FM host Lance Zierlein, who was the first to zero in on Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson (with others jumping onboard after Zierlein).
I can’t put too much stock in Zierlein since he’s never been able to explain to me why it would take at least five years for a left offensive tackle to make the switch to right defensive tackle when the positions are about as different as left Twix and right Twix.
However, I have a sneaking suspicion that Zierlein is right about Tyree Wilson. He is what the Texans need, though perhaps not what Texans fans want. You can hear the boos now if Wilson’s name is called.
Other analysts have the Texans trading the No. 2 pick at the last moment, moving down from No. 2 and moving up from No. 12 (their second pick in the first round) in hopes of still capturing a premiere quarterback, fingers crossed, Hendon Hooker of Tennessee. That actually makes so much sense that it would be a shocker if the Texans pull it off. Other scenarios have the Texans pitching a trade with the 49ers for suddenly expendable quarterback Trey Lance. Right now the Texans have quarterbacks Case Keenum and the returning Davis Mills. Cue fans yawning and planning Sundays at home next season.
That’s the most compelling aspect of this draft – what will the Texans do? Anything is possible. It’s been a long time since the Texans were A-block news on SportsCenter.
This week Caesars Sportsbook posted odds on who will be the Texans’ pick at No. 2. They have Kentucky quarterback Will Levis the favorite at -140, followed by Wilson (+275), Anderson (+420) and Stroud (+425).
Yes, defense wins games, but defense doesn’t win fans. You saw all those empty seats last year. Season ticket holders, who already paid for their seats, stayed home. Even the last-minute scalpers on Kirby stopped showing up. I know the NFL announces attendance based on tickets sold – the Texans supposedly drew 67,911 fans per game in 2022. Please hold your laughter until the end. My guess: maybe 22,000 actual fannies in seats.
Last week Taylor Swift, over three nights of concerts at NRG Stadium, possibly filled more seats than the entire Texans 2022 season. Try and shake that off. Swift could have sold twice that many tickets. And that’s with Zierlein having Swift a late fifth-round pick at best.
More than any other team the Texans desperately need to hit a home run in this year’s draft. The team is teetering on irrelevancy. It was former NFL commissioner Bert Bell who said, “On any given Sunday any team can beat any other team.” It’s not so with the Texans.
Forgetting the draft order, the Texans are a team void of any star players or, judging by attendance, any reason to show up for games. That’s why the league almost always schedules the Texans games on a given Sunday afternoon, rarely Monday or Thursday night. One draft pick, if it hits, can change all that.
The first round of the draft will air at 7 p.m. on ABC (Channel 13), ESPN and the NFL Network.
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Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.