THE PALLILOG
How exciting Texans solutions are coming into focus as needs, options narrow ahead of draft
Mar 7, 2024, 4:02 pm
This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting off-seasons in Texans history. Composite Getty Image.
For Astros fans, ongoing concerns include the future uniforms to be worn by Alex Bregman if he hits free agency at the end of the approaching season and Kyle Tucker if he hits the market after the 2025 season. For Texans fans, the additions and subtractions of free agency are much nearer at hand. This coming Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. Central Daylight Time (Yay! Clocks go forward an hour this Sunday!) the free agent spending spree officially begins, though many deals will be agreed upon a couple of days earlier.
The biggest decision the Texans had to make for this free agency cycle was what to do about Jonathan Greenard. With no contract extension, to use or not use the franchise tag on him was the question. No tag was the answer. Given his injury history and up and down career production the Texans didn’t see Greenard worth the more than 21 million dollars he’d have counted on the books. He counted under a million and a half last season. The soon-to-be 27-year-old Greenard timed his breakout 12 and a half sack season perfectly, but how much of that was attributable to attention drawn on the other side by NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson? Conversely however, if Greenard is not retained or a suitable replacement landed, how much tougher does life get for Anderson?
The Texans made a quantum leap forward last year, another leap is within reach, but far from a sure thing. Speaking of quantum leaps, the ever-richer National Football League boosted the team salary cap by more than 30 million dollars for the 2024 season to $255,400,000 per team. The Texans start free agency among the top six teams in cap space. The other five (Patriots, Titans, Commanders, Cardinals, Bears) finished last in their divisions.
Several of the dreamiest Texans’ free agent possibilities are already off the table. Galveston native/former Texas Aggie star Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans took a two year 52 million dollar extension with the Bucs. Franchise tags were used on Ravens’ defensive tackle (and also former Aggie) Justin Madebuike, Bengals’ wideout Tee Higgins, Jaguars’ edge rusher Josh Allen, Panthers’ edge rusher Brian Burns, Chiefs’ cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, Bears’ cornerback Jaylon Johnson, and Bucs’ safety Antoine Winfield Jr. All are kept off the open market. So who are a few guys available who would address Texans’ needs?
Offensively, the buzzy name is running back Saquon Barkley. The three years older Derrick Henry is in play too. Devin Singletary had a fine season overall but money aside, no one should prefer him over Barkley or Henry.
Guard is the sorest upgrade need offensively, unless Kenyon Green is to prove himself something other than a bust. Tytus Howard was not very good at guard and has declared himself a RIGHT TACKLE ONLY. The Rams’ Kevin Dotson may be the top guard on the board. The Dolphins’ Robert Hunt is in range. The Texans have notable ground to make up on the Ravens. Both Baltimore starting guards are free agents, either veteran Kevin Zeitler or run game masher John Simpson would be a Texans’ improvement and Ravens' decline.
Defensively, if the Texans do not re-up Sheldon Rankins they have a glaring need for a tackle to line up next to Maliek Collins who has one year left on his deal. It’s hard to envision them ponying up the gobs of cash it would take to lure Chris Jones from the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The Dolphins have salary cap issues and a massive extension looming for quarterback Tua Tagavailoa, so they did not put the tag on Christian Wilkins. Miami is an attractive situation and the door is not closed on Wilkins staying there, but if the Texans (or any other teams) bid aggressively, he could be had.
Cornerback Steven Nelson led the Texans in defensive snaps played and had a very solid season. He is 31 years old but showed no slippage. If not keeping Nelson the Texans need a starting level CB to pair with the studly but thus far not exactly durable Derek Stingley Jr. (eight games missed as a rookie, six more in his second season). Corner Kendall Fuller seems a good Nelson comp and is two years younger. He’s been with Washington the last four seasons. Stephon Gilmore turns 34 early next season but played very well for the Cowboys. Ex-Cowboy Chidobe Awuzie graded out well with the Bengals.
Safety Jalen Pitre had a disappointing second season, while free agent signee Jimmie Ward was hurt too much, missing seven regular season games. Kamren Curl is just 25 years old after four seasons with Washington. He’d be an unglamourous but strong addition. The Giants’ Xavier McKinney might be a pricier alternative.
The Texans won’t fill all their gaps in free agency, but remember they have the NFL Draft to come as well. They are on a clock of sorts, with a three-year window remaining of having C.J. Stroud under contract dirt cheap by the standards of upper echelon QBs. Stroud’s cap figure for 2024 is 8.25 million, 25th among NFL QBs. In 2025 and 2026 the cap numbers are just 9.89 million and 11.54 million. Come 2027 if playing under the fifth year option the Texans have on him, Stroud’s cap number projects to jump to the 40 million range. Closer to 50 million if he makes the Pro Bowl either of the next two seasons as a non-injury or Super Bowl participant replacement.
Our second season of the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is off and running. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the first post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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How latest Astros events highlight serious concerns around core philosophies
May 22, 2025, 12:59 pm
Two seasons ago the Astros were oddly feeble at home and warriors on the road. Now, this season is headed nowhere if they can't pick it up away from Daikin Park. In the first week of April, the Astros won their initial road series of the season. It will be June before they win another. Well, presumably June. Approaching seven weeks since they took a series at Minnesota, it's now seven consecutive road stops without a series victory. In six straight three-game road series the Astros have lost two out of three, including at the laughingstock White Sox. They did split the four-game set in Arlington against the Rangers last weekend. The Astros’ road record is 10-15.
Now they're home for 10 in a row, starting with four versus the team the Astros look up at in the American League West standings. The Seattle Mariners hit town three and a half games ahead of the Astros. Last June, the Astros trailed the Mariners by 10 games and wound up winning the division. Expecting a sequel as good as an original usually is not a good idea. Winning this series is certainly not a necessity given the season still only reaches its one-third completed mark this coming Tuesday. Still, at least getting a split is advised, or the Astros are looking at falling five and half games off the lead should the Mariners win three out of four, seven and a half back should Seattle sweep. But flip the script. If the Astros sweep, they go to bed Sunday night leading the division. Taking three out four would be just fine, and have the Astros within a game and a half of first.
The Astros are carrying a payroll roughly 75 million dollars larger than that of the Mariners. The M’s have a farm system (currently one of the highest rated among the franchises) vastly superior to what the Astros have (one of the worst systems in the sport). So if Mariners’ ownership opted to loosen the purse strings in pursuit of in season talent infusions, the M’s are way better positioned to make an impact move than are the Astros. Just remember, even if the Mariners are going to pull away, the wild card picture does not have three teams that are obviously ultimately better than the Astros.
Positive vibes only
If you're into good luck charms, dig up a four-leaf clover or find a rabbit's foot, then cross your fingers where Ronel Blanco is concerned. It is quite an ominous sign that the Astros sent Blanco back to Houston a day early after he reported soreness in his pitching elbow. I mean, who would be surprised to hear that Blanco is done for the season a la Hayden Wesneski. It's increasingly essential that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez hold up physically and qualitatively the rest of the way. That Brown had his worst start of the season Wednesday in Tampa is no big deal. It's called being human. The Rays torching him for three home runs and five runs in five innings spiked Brown's earned run average all the way up to 2.04. Ooooh. Brown has been fantastic.
The Astros underestimated how long Spencer Arrighetti would be out. Shocking! Some boost from him seems necessary. There is only so much the Astros can reasonably hope for out of Lance McCullers, and the likes of Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter. That either Cristian Javier or Luis Garcia makes it back by, say, August is a best-case scenario. Then it would be hope about level of performance. The Astros hold no monopoly on serial pitching injuries. The Mariners have lost three-fifths of their stout starting rotation. George Kirby making his first 2025 start Thursday is a boost for them. Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are both still out.
Heart of the matter
Among the core frustrations for Astros’ fans are the continued crummy overall performances of Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz. If it turns out that the 35-year-old Altuve has truly fallen over the hill as opposed to just enduring an extended deep slump that would be an obvious bummer. The same with the 34-year-old Walker though there is no emotional tug for Astros’ fans with Walker as there is with Altuve. Yainer Diaz is just 26. His regression is troubling, perhaps low-lighted by his one walk in his last 33 games played, four walks for the season in 170 plate appearances. That’s pathetic. Yainer, Victor Caratini, and Astros’ pitchers have collectively done a brutal job at dealing with opposition running games. The Astros have given up 62 stolen bases in 67 attempts, with one of the five caught stealings a pickoff, another a botched double steal.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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