THE PALLILOG
How exciting Texans solutions are coming into focus as needs, options narrow ahead of draft
Mar 7, 2024, 4:02 pm
This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting off-seasons in Texans history. Composite Getty Image.
For Astros fans, ongoing concerns include the future uniforms to be worn by Alex Bregman if he hits free agency at the end of the approaching season and Kyle Tucker if he hits the market after the 2025 season. For Texans fans, the additions and subtractions of free agency are much nearer at hand. This coming Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. Central Daylight Time (Yay! Clocks go forward an hour this Sunday!) the free agent spending spree officially begins, though many deals will be agreed upon a couple of days earlier.
The biggest decision the Texans had to make for this free agency cycle was what to do about Jonathan Greenard. With no contract extension, to use or not use the franchise tag on him was the question. No tag was the answer. Given his injury history and up and down career production the Texans didn’t see Greenard worth the more than 21 million dollars he’d have counted on the books. He counted under a million and a half last season. The soon-to-be 27-year-old Greenard timed his breakout 12 and a half sack season perfectly, but how much of that was attributable to attention drawn on the other side by NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson? Conversely however, if Greenard is not retained or a suitable replacement landed, how much tougher does life get for Anderson?
The Texans made a quantum leap forward last year, another leap is within reach, but far from a sure thing. Speaking of quantum leaps, the ever-richer National Football League boosted the team salary cap by more than 30 million dollars for the 2024 season to $255,400,000 per team. The Texans start free agency among the top six teams in cap space. The other five (Patriots, Titans, Commanders, Cardinals, Bears) finished last in their divisions.
Several of the dreamiest Texans’ free agent possibilities are already off the table. Galveston native/former Texas Aggie star Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans took a two year 52 million dollar extension with the Bucs. Franchise tags were used on Ravens’ defensive tackle (and also former Aggie) Justin Madebuike, Bengals’ wideout Tee Higgins, Jaguars’ edge rusher Josh Allen, Panthers’ edge rusher Brian Burns, Chiefs’ cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, Bears’ cornerback Jaylon Johnson, and Bucs’ safety Antoine Winfield Jr. All are kept off the open market. So who are a few guys available who would address Texans’ needs?
Offensively, the buzzy name is running back Saquon Barkley. The three years older Derrick Henry is in play too. Devin Singletary had a fine season overall but money aside, no one should prefer him over Barkley or Henry.
Guard is the sorest upgrade need offensively, unless Kenyon Green is to prove himself something other than a bust. Tytus Howard was not very good at guard and has declared himself a RIGHT TACKLE ONLY. The Rams’ Kevin Dotson may be the top guard on the board. The Dolphins’ Robert Hunt is in range. The Texans have notable ground to make up on the Ravens. Both Baltimore starting guards are free agents, either veteran Kevin Zeitler or run game masher John Simpson would be a Texans’ improvement and Ravens' decline.
Defensively, if the Texans do not re-up Sheldon Rankins they have a glaring need for a tackle to line up next to Maliek Collins who has one year left on his deal. It’s hard to envision them ponying up the gobs of cash it would take to lure Chris Jones from the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The Dolphins have salary cap issues and a massive extension looming for quarterback Tua Tagavailoa, so they did not put the tag on Christian Wilkins. Miami is an attractive situation and the door is not closed on Wilkins staying there, but if the Texans (or any other teams) bid aggressively, he could be had.
Cornerback Steven Nelson led the Texans in defensive snaps played and had a very solid season. He is 31 years old but showed no slippage. If not keeping Nelson the Texans need a starting level CB to pair with the studly but thus far not exactly durable Derek Stingley Jr. (eight games missed as a rookie, six more in his second season). Corner Kendall Fuller seems a good Nelson comp and is two years younger. He’s been with Washington the last four seasons. Stephon Gilmore turns 34 early next season but played very well for the Cowboys. Ex-Cowboy Chidobe Awuzie graded out well with the Bengals.
Safety Jalen Pitre had a disappointing second season, while free agent signee Jimmie Ward was hurt too much, missing seven regular season games. Kamren Curl is just 25 years old after four seasons with Washington. He’d be an unglamourous but strong addition. The Giants’ Xavier McKinney might be a pricier alternative.
The Texans won’t fill all their gaps in free agency, but remember they have the NFL Draft to come as well. They are on a clock of sorts, with a three-year window remaining of having C.J. Stroud under contract dirt cheap by the standards of upper echelon QBs. Stroud’s cap figure for 2024 is 8.25 million, 25th among NFL QBs. In 2025 and 2026 the cap numbers are just 9.89 million and 11.54 million. Come 2027 if playing under the fifth year option the Texans have on him, Stroud’s cap number projects to jump to the 40 million range. Closer to 50 million if he makes the Pro Bowl either of the next two seasons as a non-injury or Super Bowl participant replacement.
Our second season of the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is off and running. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the first post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
It's time to seriously question the Astros' front office. Photos via Getty Images, ESPN IG.
The Astros have officially entered a new era, but it’s hard to spin Alex Bregman’s exit as anything but a gut punch. Bregman, a cornerstone of Houston’s championship core, is gone — and the Astros' strategy (or lack thereof) is front and center. The questions are mounting fast, and the answers don’t inspire confidence.
Let’s be clear: This isn’t about refusing to pay players. It’s about how the Astros are willing to pay them. Jim Crane’s approach has become increasingly rigid — no deals with high annual values and opt-outs, but also no long-term contracts for $160+ million. Essentially, Crane is looking for a Goldilocks zone in modern baseball that no longer exists. Good luck winning another World Series with that strategy and a depleted farm system.
If Crane’s blueprint is to focus on cheap positions (first base, closer) or short-term deals with aging veterans past their prime, this team could be in serious trouble. We’ve seen it before with Correa. He could’ve been retained on a shorter-term contract (3-years, $105 million), but Crane’s pride — and his refusal to engage with Scott Boras on deals that include opt-outs — kept the Astros out of the conversation.
Dana Brown publicly called Bregman a top priority. Clearly, that wasn’t true for Crane. Brown’s reaction to the Bregman news felt more like a man at a funeral than an optimistic GM on the opening day of spring training for pitchers and catchers. He wouldn’t even comment on the deal.
Crane’s strategy already backfiring
The Astros locked up Rafael Montero and José Abreu to questionable contracts that now feel like self-inflicted wounds. Would Crane have let Bregman walk if not for those deals? If that’s the case, Houston just sacrificed its long-term core for short-term bets that didn't pay off.
And get ready — Framber Valdez is probably next. When his contract comes up, don’t expect him to stick around.
Leadership void
Losing Bregman isn’t just about stats. It’s about leadership, swagger, and presence. Players like Jeremy Peña, Chas McCormick, and Isaac Paredes aren’t exactly striking fear into opponents. Correa, Bregman, and Kyle Tucker? Entirely different story.
A missed opportunity
Imagine choosing between Josh Hader’s deal (5-years, $95 million) or what Bregman just signed for (3-years, $120 million). I would take Bregman all day. When Hader signed last season, we were fine with it as long as it didn't preclude the club from trying to extend Bregman and/or Tucker.
But here we are one year later with Tucker, Bregman, and Ryan Pressly playing for new teams. And Pressly was better than Hader in 2024 despite dealing with a role change.
For now, the most exciting things about the 2025 Astros are the short porch in left field — which might make Paredes look good again — and the weak AL West.
So, get your season tickets now!
This is one video you don't want to miss as the crew from Stone Cold 'Stros examines all the ramifications from Alex Bregman's Astros departure, and much more!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!
https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise
(ChatGPT assisted with this content)