THE PALLILOG
How exciting Texans solutions are coming into focus as needs, options narrow ahead of draft
Mar 7, 2024, 4:02 pm
This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting off-seasons in Texans history. Composite Getty Image.
For Astros fans, ongoing concerns include the future uniforms to be worn by Alex Bregman if he hits free agency at the end of the approaching season and Kyle Tucker if he hits the market after the 2025 season. For Texans fans, the additions and subtractions of free agency are much nearer at hand. This coming Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. Central Daylight Time (Yay! Clocks go forward an hour this Sunday!) the free agent spending spree officially begins, though many deals will be agreed upon a couple of days earlier.
The biggest decision the Texans had to make for this free agency cycle was what to do about Jonathan Greenard. With no contract extension, to use or not use the franchise tag on him was the question. No tag was the answer. Given his injury history and up and down career production the Texans didn’t see Greenard worth the more than 21 million dollars he’d have counted on the books. He counted under a million and a half last season. The soon-to-be 27-year-old Greenard timed his breakout 12 and a half sack season perfectly, but how much of that was attributable to attention drawn on the other side by NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson? Conversely however, if Greenard is not retained or a suitable replacement landed, how much tougher does life get for Anderson?
The Texans made a quantum leap forward last year, another leap is within reach, but far from a sure thing. Speaking of quantum leaps, the ever-richer National Football League boosted the team salary cap by more than 30 million dollars for the 2024 season to $255,400,000 per team. The Texans start free agency among the top six teams in cap space. The other five (Patriots, Titans, Commanders, Cardinals, Bears) finished last in their divisions.
Several of the dreamiest Texans’ free agent possibilities are already off the table. Galveston native/former Texas Aggie star Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans took a two year 52 million dollar extension with the Bucs. Franchise tags were used on Ravens’ defensive tackle (and also former Aggie) Justin Madebuike, Bengals’ wideout Tee Higgins, Jaguars’ edge rusher Josh Allen, Panthers’ edge rusher Brian Burns, Chiefs’ cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, Bears’ cornerback Jaylon Johnson, and Bucs’ safety Antoine Winfield Jr. All are kept off the open market. So who are a few guys available who would address Texans’ needs?
Offensively, the buzzy name is running back Saquon Barkley. The three years older Derrick Henry is in play too. Devin Singletary had a fine season overall but money aside, no one should prefer him over Barkley or Henry.
Guard is the sorest upgrade need offensively, unless Kenyon Green is to prove himself something other than a bust. Tytus Howard was not very good at guard and has declared himself a RIGHT TACKLE ONLY. The Rams’ Kevin Dotson may be the top guard on the board. The Dolphins’ Robert Hunt is in range. The Texans have notable ground to make up on the Ravens. Both Baltimore starting guards are free agents, either veteran Kevin Zeitler or run game masher John Simpson would be a Texans’ improvement and Ravens' decline.
Defensively, if the Texans do not re-up Sheldon Rankins they have a glaring need for a tackle to line up next to Maliek Collins who has one year left on his deal. It’s hard to envision them ponying up the gobs of cash it would take to lure Chris Jones from the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The Dolphins have salary cap issues and a massive extension looming for quarterback Tua Tagavailoa, so they did not put the tag on Christian Wilkins. Miami is an attractive situation and the door is not closed on Wilkins staying there, but if the Texans (or any other teams) bid aggressively, he could be had.
Cornerback Steven Nelson led the Texans in defensive snaps played and had a very solid season. He is 31 years old but showed no slippage. If not keeping Nelson the Texans need a starting level CB to pair with the studly but thus far not exactly durable Derek Stingley Jr. (eight games missed as a rookie, six more in his second season). Corner Kendall Fuller seems a good Nelson comp and is two years younger. He’s been with Washington the last four seasons. Stephon Gilmore turns 34 early next season but played very well for the Cowboys. Ex-Cowboy Chidobe Awuzie graded out well with the Bengals.
Safety Jalen Pitre had a disappointing second season, while free agent signee Jimmie Ward was hurt too much, missing seven regular season games. Kamren Curl is just 25 years old after four seasons with Washington. He’d be an unglamourous but strong addition. The Giants’ Xavier McKinney might be a pricier alternative.
The Texans won’t fill all their gaps in free agency, but remember they have the NFL Draft to come as well. They are on a clock of sorts, with a three-year window remaining of having C.J. Stroud under contract dirt cheap by the standards of upper echelon QBs. Stroud’s cap figure for 2024 is 8.25 million, 25th among NFL QBs. In 2025 and 2026 the cap numbers are just 9.89 million and 11.54 million. Come 2027 if playing under the fifth year option the Texans have on him, Stroud’s cap number projects to jump to the 40 million range. Closer to 50 million if he makes the Pro Bowl either of the next two seasons as a non-injury or Super Bowl participant replacement.
Our second season of the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is off and running. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the first post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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