FAILURE AT THE TOP
Here's the latest instance of the Houston Texans operating in Bizarro World
Jan 10, 2023, 11:10 am
Brandin Cooks clearly wants out of Houston. So why let him play? Composite image by Jack Brame.
It sure looks like Brandin Cooks is making a statement to the Houston Texans
Pyrrhus of Epirus had nothing on Lovie Smith.
In 279 B.C., Pyrrhus led the Epirus army against the Romans in the Battle of Asculum. Pyrrhus won the battle but lost so many soldiers that his army could not continue to fight the war.
Thus was born the expression “Pyrrhic victory.” It’s when you win something but at such a cost that you lose in the long run.
Fast-forward 2,302 years. Coach Lovie Smith and the Houston Texans had one thing to do last Sunday – lose a football game – a skill they had been quite proficient at all season. But true to form, they couldn’t even do that right.
They entered Sunday’s game on the road against Indianapolis with the worst record in the league. If they lost, they’d clinch the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft. They’d have a clear shot at landing talented quarterback Bryce Young of Alabama and start their path back to respectability.
Lose one for the Gipper.
It looked like they had the loss wrapped up, too, trailing 31-24 with 3:29 left. And that’s when the Texans decided, “Let’s win this game!” Seriously? They drove downfield and scored a touchdown on a last-minute desperation pass. That made the score 31-30 still in favor of the Colts, the Texans still in firm grasp of losing. What to do now? Shank the extra point on purpose? Go for two and take a knee?
Suddenly Lovie Smith, criticized all season for playing uninspired, predictable football, became a riverboat gambler, went for two, made it, and won the game.
What were you thinking?
Smith, his job on the line, did the one thing that doomed him to the ranks of the unemployed. The Texans didn’t even wait for NFL Black Monday to dismiss him. He was dismissed Sunday night before the 10 o’clock news.
We don’t know if losing would have saved Smith’s job, but it’s for sure that winning didn’t help. The Texans operate in the Bizarro World, where “us do opposite of all Earthly things. Us hate beauty. Us love ugliness. Is big crime to make anything perfect.”
Us would rather pick No. 2 in the NFL draft and not No. 1.
With the Texans’ luck, another team that needs help at quarterback, say the Colts, will trade up with the Bears, grab the No. 1 pick and steal Young, who has a long, successful pro career and wins multiple Super Bowls.
He coulda been a Texan, and the Texans coulda been a contender. All they had to do was lose a simple football game. Losing is easy. You just need a game plan. You’ve seen the movie Major League. The team owner needs the Indians to lose so fans stay away and the owner can break the lease on their stadium and move the team to Florida. So the team signs a bunch of misfits and lousy players.
Fans already stay away from Texans games. The roster already is pretty underwhelming. They just needed to finish the job and lose on Sunday.
At the post-game press conference, Smith was asked about his future with the Texans and he expressed confidence that he’d be back next year. The Texans fired him a couple of hours later. Way to humiliate the poor guy one last time. They could have told him he was toast before the press conference.
Nice touch, Brandin Cooks, the Texans’ best offensive player, who makes $19 million a year, trashing the Texans after the game. Cooks said, “I want to be part of a vision where everyone is on the same page and has a stable vision.” He wasn’t talking about the Texans.
The Texans still may get a quality player with the No. 2 pick. Most draft experts point to defensive stars like Will Anderson of Alabama or Jalen Carter of Georgia. Both could be impact players, but no position can turn a team around like quarterback. And the Texans need to do a complete 180.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Rockets advance to NBA Cup semifinals after thrilling win over Warriors
Dec 11, 2024, 11:50 pm
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!