NUMBER CRUNCHING
Beyond results, numbers tell a fascinating story to otherwise unpredictable Houston Texans season
Sep 20, 2022, 5:16 pm
NUMBER CRUNCHING
The Texans are off to a rocky start of what was s’posed to be their year of redemption, resurrection and return to respectability. At least that was the hope.
They had finally escaped the ugly Deshaun Watson spotlight. They hired a head coach with experience, who’s liked by his players and isn’t in over his head. They returned to the world of first-round draft picks. Their promising young quarterback was returning with a year under his belt. They even lowered the price of beer and hot dogs to lure fans back to NRG Stadium.
Vegas had them making progress, setting their over/under for wins at 4.5, a baby step forward from consecutive four-win seasons.
They went 3-0 in preseason. Yeah, it was all looking up.
But now, after only two games – and one of them wasn’t even a loss – it looks like some of the fan base and all of the media is pushing the panic button.
The season started with a 20-20 tie at home against Indianapolis. The Colts were favored by 8 points. Not a loss, certainly not a loss for Texans fans betting on the locals. But a game the Texans clearly should have won. Especially after realizing the Colts were shellacked by the Jacksonville Jaguars the following week.
Then it was off to Denver as 10-point dogs and a troubling 16-9 loss with the Texans failing to score a touchdown. Another game the Texans should have won. Denver was horrible, mismanaging timeouts, double-digit dumb penalties and apparently forgetting there is a play clock in the NFL. It got so bad that the crowd began counting down the seconds before another penalty flag flew. The Mean Machine from The Longest Yard was a more disciplined football team than Denver last Sunday.
Still, not time to push the panic button. Not yet. But if the Texans lose to the Chicago Bears, another game they should win this Sunday … it might be time to pack up the 2022 season. Sunday is must win because the Texans’ schedule hits a rough slate after that, with the Chargers at home, on the road against the Jags and back home for the Titans and Eagles.
There is a bright side to this malaise. The Texans are 2-0 against the spread, so they’ve performed better than the Vegas wiseguys predicted.
The Texans play in the AFC South, where only one team has so much as a win so far. The bad news is, that one team is Jacksonville, which was forecast as doable wins for the Texans, but maybe not so much after their shutout destruction of the Colts last Sunday.
Quarterback Davis Mills, so full of promise, has been a disappointment. For a quarterback with a reputation for throwing accurate balls, he’s playing like a nervous rookie. He’s the 29th-rated passer in the NFL. There are only 32 teams. Silver lining – Bears quarterback Justin Fields is No. 30.
The more troublesome thing about Mills, he’s not exactly a Fearless Leader on the field. He is a quiet, thoughtful, shy type. That’d be fine if he was dating your sister, but the Texans need a firebrand. You take one look at Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady and you see a maniac who’s obsessed with winning. Not saying that Mills isn’t driven to win, but it wouldn’t hurt to show it. Get in a receiver’s face, throw your helmet on the sidelines, smash a Microsoft Surface tablet.
To be fair, Mills is in perfect step with the Texans personality. The Texans are, let’s put it this way, not exactly an exciting glamour team. Last week, CBS offered the Texans-Denver game to all 20 TV markets in Texas. Only one – Houston - aired the game. Every other market went with the Cowboys-Bengals game.
Unless this season turns around, starting with a win Sunday over the Bears, the big winner for the Texans losing will be Alabama quarterback, Bryce Young. The Texans would be in line to draft him with an early pick. He’s fiery, thoroughly entertaining, a Heisman Trophy guy, electric and makes one hell of a commercial. His spot for Dr. Pepper is hilarious. He’d light up this city.
Two first-place clubs riding identical hot streaks meet again Wednesday night as the Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies in a marquee midseason showdown.
The Astros, winners of six straight at home, enter with a 46-33 record and a firm grip on the AL West. They've surged behind strong pitching and timely hitting, outscoring opponents by 10 runs over their last 10 games while posting a 3.40 team ERA. Mauricio Dubón has been a spark during that stretch, slugging four homers in his last 10 games, while Isaac Paredes continues to anchor the lineup with a team-high 16 home runs.
They’ll hand the ball to rookie left-hander Colton Gordon, who brings a 2-1 record and 4.54 ERA into his eighth start of the season. Gordon has shown flashes of potential but will face perhaps his toughest test yet against a Phillies lineup loaded with talent and plate discipline.
Philadelphia, 47-32 and sitting atop the NL East, has the third-best on-base percentage in baseball (.331) and no signs of slowing. They've gone 7-3 in their last 10 games, outscoring opponents by 15 runs and batting .267 during that stretch. Trea Turner has begun to heat up, going 12-for-42 in his last 10 contests, while Nick Castellanos remains a consistent threat with 21 doubles and 41 RBIs on the year.
The Phillies will counter with ace Zack Wheeler, who enters with dominant numbers: a 7-2 record, 2.61 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts. Wheeler’s command and swing-and-miss stuff have been a constant all season, and the Astros will have to work for every base runner.
This is the second meeting between the two clubs this season, with the Astros winning the first contest, 1-0. With both teams trending upward, it has all the makings of another tight, low-scoring battle. The betting line favors Philadelphia (-160), with the over/under set at 7.5 runs — a reflection of the elite pitching expected on both sides.
First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. EDT at Daikin Park.