NUMBER CRUNCHING
Beyond results, numbers tell a fascinating story to otherwise unpredictable Houston Texans season
Sep 20, 2022, 5:16 pm
The Texans hope to bounce back against the Bears this Sunday. Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images.
The Texans are off to a rocky start of what was s’posed to be their year of redemption, resurrection and return to respectability. At least that was the hope.
They had finally escaped the ugly Deshaun Watson spotlight. They hired a head coach with experience, who’s liked by his players and isn’t in over his head. They returned to the world of first-round draft picks. Their promising young quarterback was returning with a year under his belt. They even lowered the price of beer and hot dogs to lure fans back to NRG Stadium.
Vegas had them making progress, setting their over/under for wins at 4.5, a baby step forward from consecutive four-win seasons.
They went 3-0 in preseason. Yeah, it was all looking up.
But now, after only two games – and one of them wasn’t even a loss – it looks like some of the fan base and all of the media is pushing the panic button.
The season started with a 20-20 tie at home against Indianapolis. The Colts were favored by 8 points. Not a loss, certainly not a loss for Texans fans betting on the locals. But a game the Texans clearly should have won. Especially after realizing the Colts were shellacked by the Jacksonville Jaguars the following week.
Then it was off to Denver as 10-point dogs and a troubling 16-9 loss with the Texans failing to score a touchdown. Another game the Texans should have won. Denver was horrible, mismanaging timeouts, double-digit dumb penalties and apparently forgetting there is a play clock in the NFL. It got so bad that the crowd began counting down the seconds before another penalty flag flew. The Mean Machine from The Longest Yard was a more disciplined football team than Denver last Sunday.
Still, not time to push the panic button. Not yet. But if the Texans lose to the Chicago Bears, another game they should win this Sunday … it might be time to pack up the 2022 season. Sunday is must win because the Texans’ schedule hits a rough slate after that, with the Chargers at home, on the road against the Jags and back home for the Titans and Eagles.
There is a bright side to this malaise. The Texans are 2-0 against the spread, so they’ve performed better than the Vegas wiseguys predicted.
The Texans play in the AFC South, where only one team has so much as a win so far. The bad news is, that one team is Jacksonville, which was forecast as doable wins for the Texans, but maybe not so much after their shutout destruction of the Colts last Sunday.
Quarterback Davis Mills, so full of promise, has been a disappointment. For a quarterback with a reputation for throwing accurate balls, he’s playing like a nervous rookie. He’s the 29th-rated passer in the NFL. There are only 32 teams. Silver lining – Bears quarterback Justin Fields is No. 30.
The more troublesome thing about Mills, he’s not exactly a Fearless Leader on the field. He is a quiet, thoughtful, shy type. That’d be fine if he was dating your sister, but the Texans need a firebrand. You take one look at Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady and you see a maniac who’s obsessed with winning. Not saying that Mills isn’t driven to win, but it wouldn’t hurt to show it. Get in a receiver’s face, throw your helmet on the sidelines, smash a Microsoft Surface tablet.
To be fair, Mills is in perfect step with the Texans personality. The Texans are, let’s put it this way, not exactly an exciting glamour team. Last week, CBS offered the Texans-Denver game to all 20 TV markets in Texas. Only one – Houston - aired the game. Every other market went with the Cowboys-Bengals game.
Unless this season turns around, starting with a win Sunday over the Bears, the big winner for the Texans losing will be Alabama quarterback, Bryce Young. The Texans would be in line to draft him with an early pick. He’s fiery, thoroughly entertaining, a Heisman Trophy guy, electric and makes one hell of a commercial. His spot for Dr. Pepper is hilarious. He’d light up this city.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.