NO-BRAINER
Important lessons learned: Why Texans QB situation is cut-and-dry
May 25, 2023, 2:44 pm
CJ Stroud needs to start from day one. Composite Getty Image.
Houston Texans trade up to No. 62 overall and bolster offensive line
As the Houston Texans week of OTAs winds down, we’re told that Davis Mills and C.J. Stroud are sharing QB1 snaps, and it’s an open competition for the starting quarterback job.
“I’m competing for that starting job,” Mills told reporters on Tuesday. “Since I’ve been drafted in the NFL, I have been in a competition. I don’t think anything is going to change.”
Oh it’s going to change.
The Texans should say right now that Stroud will be the starter when the Texans open their 2023 season against the Baltimore Ravens and put this silly photo op to rest. The Texans didn’t draft Stroud at No. 2 and give him $36 million guaranteed over four years, including a $25 million bonus just for scribbling his name on a contract, to sit and watch Mills run this team to another three or four-win season.
Granted, Stroud is an unproven talent at the NFL level. Mills is. And that’s why there’s not really a competition for the starting quarterback job.
And that’s the smart thing for the Texans to do. They just bought a 2023 model luxury car – why let it sit in the garage while they take their 3-year-old economy car to work?
Maybe the Texans are insisting that Stroud has to earn the starting job to put a burr under his saddle. But if the Texans’ goal is to win a Super Bowl in coming years, Stroud is their best bet.
Even if they have to suffer another losing season, like the last three when they won three games, four games and four games.
As Michael Corleone said, “if history has taught us anything …”
Troy Aikman was 0-11 as a starter his rookie season for the Dallas Cowboys in 1989. He threw nine touchdowns and 18 interceptions. The Cowboys finished 1-15 that season.
Aikman won three Super Bowls with the Cowboys.
Peyton Manning went 3-13 as a starter his rookie season for the Indianapolis Colts in 1998. He threw 26 touchdowns and a league-leading 28 interceptions.
Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl with the Colts and later another one with the Broncos.
Eli Manning went 1-6 as a starter his rookie season with the New York Giants in 2004. He threw six touchdowns and nine interceptions. The Giants went 6-10 that year.
Eli Manning won two Super Bowls with the Giants.
John Elway went 4-6 as a starter his rookie season with the Denver Broncos in 1983. He threw seven touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
Elway won two Super Bowls with the Broncos.
In 1965 the New York Jets drafted two quarterbacks: Joe Namath from Alabama and John Huarte from Notre Dame. The Heisman Trophy winner that season: Huarte, not Namath. The Jets signed Namath to a record-smashing $427,000 contract. Huarte got half that.
Namath went 3-5-1 as a starter his rookie season. Four years later he led the Jets to a historic upset over the Colts in the Super Bowl. Huarte never saw the field for the Jets and was traded to Patriots the following season.
Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson all started as rookies and later won the Super Bowl.
Sure, Aaron Rodgers sat on the bench for three seasons before becoming a Super Bowl quarterback. But he sat behind Brett Favre. Recently Jordan Love had to sit three seasons behind Rodgers.
Davis Mills is no Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. There’s no reason for C.J. Stroud to have to wait to start for the Texans. What do the Texans have to lose, besides another 12 or 13 games?
Of course, being drafted No. 2 and starting immediately doesn’t always lead to Super Bowl glory.
In 1998, the San Diego Chargers drafted can't miss, physical specimen Ryan Leaf at No. 2 behind Peyton Manning. Leaf was named QB1 and threw two touchdowns and 15 interceptions in his nightmare rookie season. Head coach Kevin Gilbride (remember him?) was fired after six games.
Leaf finished his brief career with 14 touchdowns and 36 interceptions. Deadspin ranked Leaf as the sixth-worst player in NFL history. Some say Deadspin was too kind. He later spent almost as many months in prison (32) as he did as an active player (36).
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.