Crucial playoff x-factors that could tilt Chargers-Texans in Houston’s favor

Crucial playoff x-factors that could tilt Chargers-Texans in Houston’s favor
Can the Texans pull off the upset? Composite Getty Image.

The NFL playoffs are finally here, and the Texans will kick off the postseason by hosting the LA Chargers this Saturday at NRG.

And while the Texans are only 3 point underdogs, the national media is making it seem like Houston has no chance against Justin Herbert and company.

ESPN's Rex Ryan has gone as far as calling the Texans a "bye" week for the Chargers, giving the team no chance to win despite playing at home.

However, the Texans are no stranger to this situation, as they were given little chance to win against the Browns in last year's Wild Card game. And we know how that ended, with the Texans thrashing the Browns 45-14.

It's certainly fair to predict the Chargers will come away with a win this Saturday, they have been playing much better football than Houston in recent weeks.

But it's important to remember that home underdogs have performed well in the Wild Card round. In fact, home underdogs are 16-14 all-time in the Wild Card playoffs, and both home underdogs won last year (Texans, Buccaneers).

Speaking of last year, many credit the Texans defense for securing the win over Cleveland, with two pick sixes in the second half helping to seal the deal.

But the real reason Houston won the game was because of CJ Stroud and the offense. Stroud threw 3 touchdowns before halftime and the team was leading 24-14 with six minutes left in the third quarter. That's when the defense tacked on two interceptions for touchdowns and put the game out of reach. Stroud and the offense also went on to score another TD on a Devin Singletary run.

If Stroud and the offense didn't put so much pressure on Joe Flacco and the Cleveland offense to score, he may not have forced those passes that were picked off.

Now, many will point to the Chargers having the best defense (points allowed) this season, but it's worth noting the Browns had the number one defense (yards allowed) last year as well.

Bulls on Parade

Houston's defense will have its hands full against a strong rushing attack led by JK Dobbins. And Justin Herbert has been terrific this season, spreading the ball around to his top two targets, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.

Fortunately for the Texans, they are extremely healthy on defense this week. While Jimmy Ward and Jalen Pitre are out for the year, we'll finally get to see linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Christian Harris play together for the first time this season.

The defensive line is expected to be at full strength as well, keep in mind Jonathan Greenard was injured and unable to play against the Browns last year.

Outlook on offense

We should see the best possible version of the offensive line this Saturday. We're all aware how many hits Stroud has taken due to poor o-line play. But with Tytus Howard and left guard and Juice Scruggs at right guard, Stroud should have more time to get the passing game going, featuring Nico Collins.

Speaking of the receivers, it's pretty amazing that this receiver group is almost identical to last year's in the Wild Card round. Stroud didn't have Stefon Diggs (on the Bills) or Tank Dell (injured) to throw to last year, either. But he does have one big addition in Joe Mixon this year. Hopefully, they can get Mixon involved in the passing game, and the shuffling of the o-line provides Mixon with some holes to run through.

X-factor

At least there's a possibility newly acquired receiver Diontae Johnson could provide a spark to the offense. Last year John Metchie and Robert Woods were the main targets besides Collins and Dalton Schultz.

What does Vegas think?

The Chargers are favored by 3 and the total is set at 42.5 points

Don't miss the video above as the crew from Texans on Tap previews this week's big game!

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Is it already too late to extend Framber Valdez and/or Hunter Brown? Composite Getty Image.

Astros starter Hunter Brown had a breakout season in 2024, after struggling mightily in 2023, when he posted an ERA over five. And while that's good news for the team heading into 2025, it could present some challenges when looking at the big picture.

That's because we're already hearing speculation that Brown won't be willing to sign an extension with the Astros, preferring to wait until free agency to entertain any long-term contract offers. Some reports indicate Brown had interest in signing a deal last year, but Houston may have missed their window. It's hard to blame the Astros front office for not offering Brown an extension after a miserable 2023 season, but could this development change how the Astros operate moving forward?

Brown won't be a free agent until 2029, so it's not like he's going anywhere anytime soon. But his hiring of Scott Boras suggests he's not looking to give Houston a hometown discount.

Astros ace Framber Valdez is only one season away from free agency, and based on what the market is telling us, he will likely command a contract in the $200 million range. And while his resume is certainly better than Brown's, he's five years older than Hunter, and has a lower strikeout rate.

So if we're projecting forward, which pitcher has more value? Brown is younger and has incredible upside, but he also only has one good season under his belt. While Framber has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball since 2020.

Don't miss the video above as ESPN Houston's John Granato and Lance Zierlein debate which pitcher has more value, and how that could impact the way the Astros manage their young players moving forward.

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