Crucial playoff x-factors that could tilt Chargers-Texans in Houston’s favor
GAME PREVIEW
09 January
Can the Texans pull off the upset? Composite Getty Image.
The NFL playoffs are finally here, and the Texans will kick off the postseason by hosting the LA Chargers this Saturday at NRG.
And while the Texans are only 3 point underdogs, the national media is making it seem like Houston has no chance against Justin Herbert and company.
ESPN's Rex Ryan has gone as far as calling the Texans a "bye" week for the Chargers, giving the team no chance to win despite playing at home.
However, the Texans are no stranger to this situation, as they were given little chance to win against the Browns in last year's Wild Card game. And we know how that ended, with the Texans thrashing the Browns 45-14.
It's certainly fair to predict the Chargers will come away with a win this Saturday, they have been playing much better football than Houston in recent weeks.
But it's important to remember that home underdogs have performed well in the Wild Card round. In fact, home underdogs are 16-14 all-time in the Wild Card playoffs, and both home underdogs won last year (Texans, Buccaneers).
Speaking of last year, many credit the Texans defense for securing the win over Cleveland, with two pick sixes in the second half helping to seal the deal.
But the real reason Houston won the game was because of CJ Stroud and the offense. Stroud threw 3 touchdowns before halftime and the team was leading 24-14 with six minutes left in the third quarter. That's when the defense tacked on two interceptions for touchdowns and put the game out of reach. Stroud and the offense also went on to score another TD on a Devin Singletary run.
If Stroud and the offense didn't put so much pressure on Joe Flacco and the Cleveland offense to score, he may not have forced those passes that were picked off.
Now, many will point to the Chargers having the best defense (points allowed) this season, but it's worth noting the Browns had the number one defense (yards allowed) last year as well.
Bulls on Parade
Houston's defense will have its hands full against a strong rushing attack led by JK Dobbins. And Justin Herbert has been terrific this season, spreading the ball around to his top two targets, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.
Fortunately for the Texans, they are extremely healthy on defense this week. While Jimmy Ward and Jalen Pitre are out for the year, we'll finally get to see linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Christian Harris play together for the first time this season.
The defensive line is expected to be at full strength as well, keep in mind Jonathan Greenard was injured and unable to play against the Browns last year.
Outlook on offense
We should see the best possible version of the offensive line this Saturday. We're all aware how many hits Stroud has taken due to poor o-line play. But with Tytus Howard and left guard and Juice Scruggs at right guard, Stroud should have more time to get the passing game going, featuring Nico Collins.
Speaking of the receivers, it's pretty amazing that this receiver group is almost identical to last year's in the Wild Card round. Stroud didn't have Stefon Diggs (on the Bills) or Tank Dell (injured) to throw to last year, either. But he does have one big addition in Joe Mixon this year. Hopefully, they can get Mixon involved in the passing game, and the shuffling of the o-line provides Mixon with some holes to run through.
X-factor
At least there's a possibility newly acquired receiver Diontae Johnson could provide a spark to the offense. Last year John Metchie and Robert Woods were the main targets besides Collins and Dalton Schultz.
What does Vegas think?
The Chargers are favored by 3 and the total is set at 42.5 points
Don't miss the video above as the crew from Texans on Tap previews this week's big game!
How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
It’s been a slog on the treadmill of mediocrity for the Astros thus far in 2025. Their 18-18 record heading into a weekend series at Daikin Park vs. the Reds is appropriate. Plenty of good teams will have similar stretches this season. The Astros have to prove that this year’s edition is a good team. Plenty of time for that remains. Reminder that the breakout 2017 Astros had a 74-game stretch over which they went 37-37. 162 games allow for a lot of ebb and flow. Of course, the 2025 Astros’ roster is not close in quality to that of the 2017 squad. The point isn’t that this team could be a 101-game winner but that the 88 victories good enough for a playoff spot last year are still quite plausible this year.
The Rockets achieved mediocrity last season after three seasons as a laughingstock. This season they made the leap to good. While curling up and succumbing to Golden State in the decisive game seven of their first-round playoff series was a disappointment, the Rockets are in excellent position moving forward. Where they go from here should be quite interesting,
OF COURSE the Rockets are going to explore trading Jalen Green. He is obviously their most physically gifted player, but his consistent inconsistency is exasperating. Green’s series against the Warriors was basically an embarrassment with the exception of his 38-point game two outburst. The other six games, a meager nine-point-two points per game. That Green is still just 23 years old means it is not near obligatory they move on from him as Green starts a three-year 105 million dollar contract extension. However, the state of his game and comparison to a few specific players cast enough doubt about Green’s ceiling that declaring him “untouchable” would be ridiculous. During the Golden State series, an NBA play-by-play guy who I think is very good overall once referred to Green as the “Rockets’ superstar.” Anyone, including Green himself, who calls him a superstar either misspoke, was caught up in a moment, or is clueless.
Jalen Green just finished his fourth NBA season. Fairness requires noting that his first two seasons were compromised by being on atrocious Rockets’ squads. That said, Green was on 41-41 and 52-30 teams the past two seasons. In neither of him did he shoot a league average percentage either overall or from behind the three-point line. He did approach the three-point league average of 36 percentage made with his 35.4. That Green is an 80 percent career free throw shooter gives hope the three-point shooting can further develop. Better shot selection sure would help.
Green was the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, one year removed from high school. The player taken ahead of him was Cade Cunningham who also played just one year out of high school before going NBA. Cunningham joined a joke Detroit Pistons team. Cunningham is a much better player than Green at this point.
Other shooting guards who played one year after high school then jumped to the NBA, who were markedly ahead of Green after four NBA seasons include Anthony Edwards (first pick in his draft class), and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), and Devin Booker (13th). In comparison to each Green is a disappointment, though certainly not a bust.
What is head coach Ime Udoka’s bottom-line belief in Green fulfilling his potential? My guess is that cup is not overflowing. The Rockets’ half-court offense simply is not of championship caliber. Can it evolve there with Green, or is he better used as a piece in a trade offer with other players plus draft picks for a Booker or Kevin Duran? The Phoenix Suns are a near assets-less mess of a franchise in dire need of a reset. Durant will be 37 years old when next season starts, but is still a tremendous offensive player who would be a gargantuan half-court offense upgrade for the Rockets. The Rockets have so much draft capital that offering two or three first round picks plus Green, Cam Whitmore, and another player or two to make the salary cap math work would A: not empty out the Rockets’ flexibility going forward and B: have to get the Suns’ attention. If I’m Udoka and General Manager Rafael Stone, I’m making the call.
Courtesy of the Suns, the Rockets hold what is currently the ninth pick in the NBA Draft. The draft lottery is Monday night. The Rockets’ have a three-point-eight percent chance of winning it and the right to make Duke freshman superstar (and Final Four loser to UH) Cooper Flagg the number one pick. There is a 13.5 percent chance the Rockets move up to pick two, three, or four. Otherwise, it’s ninth, or lower if another team or teams vault up the lottery board.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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