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How NFL, Texans will value veteran running backs

Texans DeMeco Ryans, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs
Will the Texans pony up for Saquon Barkley? Composite Getty Image.

Derrick Henry is back in the gym, eager to prove turning 30 is just a number that shouldn’t affect the four-time Pro Bowl running back’s value on the NFL's open market.

The man who organized a group chat among the league's top running backs last summer is about to find out exactly what teams are willing to pay for proven experience.

And Henry has company with stars such as Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard — the three running backs hit with franchise tags in 2023 — also hitting free agency. Barkley didn't sign his tag and wound up playing last season for $10.1 million.

So will these running backs find big contracts when the NFL free agent market opens next week? Or will they have to be patient, choosy or simply have to settle for less?

“We’re all going to find out,” Texans general manager Nick Caserio said. “Free agency is just — it’s what does the market tell you? And then any player, what are you willing to pay that player commensurate with their role?”

The cost of free agents changes every March with the start of each new NFL year. Positions get slotted, and running backs have been hit the hardest with less expensive replacements available. Only kickers and punters are paid less on average by position than backs whose bodies take crunching hits every handoff and block.

No NFL team in the offseason gave itself more negotiating time with either a franchise or transition tag on a running back that would've cost a mere $9.7 million for 2024. Again, only kickers and punters had a lower value.

Of the nine total tags since the start of the offseason, seven went to defensive players.

So a group of experienced and talented players is poised to hit the free agent market.

“There’s some good names there,” Giants GM Joe Schoen said at the NFL combine last week. “I mean, it’s a little bit of a saturated market. There are some guys at different ages that have had success, there’s some older guys that have had some success. So, it’s a diverse group.”

Age isn't a factor for Jacobs at just 26. But he is coming off his worst season, having rushed for only 805 yards last season, and the Raiders also have Zamir White as they look for a possible replacement for Jacobs.

"The talent pool at that position in free agency is relatively high,” Raiders GM Tom Telesco said.

Even with the jump in the NFL salary cap for 2024, running backs may be forced to be patient and choosy.

One thing in their favor? The pool for running backs in April's draft is a bit shallow with only 12 projected as fifth-round picks or better out of 35 graded before the combine.

Incoming running backs have noticed the low value the NFL has placed on their position. Blake Corum of Michigan said it's up to running backs to fix that narrative by being game-changers.

“Running backs obviously want to get paid more, but at the end of the day it is what it is, you can only control the controllables and that's the way I look at it so I'm not so worried about it,” Corum said.

Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that just because the market price hasn't risen along with others doesn't negate the impact of good running backs.

"All it does is take one team, one deal to reset a market and change things,” Adofo-Mensah said. "I’m not going to say that it’s not going to be this year, but there’s a lot of exciting options on the market. We’ll take a look at them like we take a look at every position.”

Henry made clear after the Titans' season ended that he was looking forward to becoming a free agent, essentially for the first time since high school. He agreed to a four-year extension after being tagged in 2020.

Yes, he turned 30 in January, but the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner started only four games combined over his first two seasons in the NFL behind DeMarco Murray. Henry led the NFL in carries with 280 and was second in rushing behind the 49ers' Christian McCaffrey in 2023.

One of only eight men to run for at least 2,000 yards in a season, Henry also is tied for 13th in NFL history with 90 rushing TDs, tied with Eric Dickerson and Curtis Martin. He's also 508 yards from passing Eddie George as the franchise's career leading rusher.

Whether Henry gets that chance has been the most popular question in Tennessee for general manager Ran Carthon. He goes into his second season with a new coach in Brian Callahan and Tyjae Spears, a big dual threat out of the backfield as a rookie in 2023.

“I have a responsibility to build this team long term,” he said. "And like I said, we’ll cross that bridge with Derrick and his team when we get there.”

That time is here. The only question is at what price.

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It could be a big night for Alperen Sengun. Photo by David Berding/Getty Images.

When: Thursday, 8 p.m. EST
Where: Houston, TX
BetMGM Line: Rockets -10; Over/Under 219

BOTTOM LINE:
The New Orleans Pelicans are looking to end a four-game skid as they take on the Houston Rockets, who have established themselves as a force in the Western Conference this season.

The Rockets (17-9) currently sit third in the West and boast one of the league's best rebounding units, led by Alperen Sengun. Houston has dominated within the division, posting a 4-1 record against Southwest Division opponents. Meanwhile, the Pelicans (5-22) have struggled mightily, especially within their division, where they remain winless at 0-3.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

  • Houston’s Rebounding Edge
    The Rockets lead the Western Conference in rebounding, averaging 49.3 boards per game. Alperen Sengun has been a standout, contributing 10.6 rebounds along with 18.6 points and 5.2 assists per contest. This could spell trouble for a Pelicans squad that has been outmuscled on the glass in recent outings.
  • Pelicans’ Scoring Woes
    New Orleans ranks last in the Western Conference in scoring, putting up just 105.1 points per game on 43.7% shooting. Their offense will be further hampered by injuries to key players like Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Zion Williamson (hamstring), leaving the team with limited options to generate points.
  • Defensive Disparities
    While the Rockets aren’t elite defensively, allowing 106.1 points per game, they should benefit from the Pelicans' offensive struggles. Houston's opponents are shooting just 42.5% in the Rockets' last 10 games, a figure that contrasts with the 48.3% shooting New Orleans allows to opposing teams over the season.

RECENT FORM:

  • Rockets: Houston is 6-4 over its last 10 games, averaging 108.0 points and 47.3 rebounds while holding opponents to 106.0 points. The Rockets have been solid on both ends, particularly in forcing turnovers, as they average 8.3 steals and 6.1 blocks per game.
  • Pelicans: New Orleans has dropped nine of its last 10 games, scoring 107.3 points on 43.9% shooting while giving up a whopping 118.9 points per game to opponents. Injuries have ravaged the Pelicans’ lineup, leaving them vulnerable in both scoring and defense.

INJURY REPORT:

  • Rockets: No injuries reported.
  • Pelicans: Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Zion Williamson (hamstring) are out, while Jose Alvarado (hamstring) is also sidelined. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Karlo Matkovic, and Jordan Hawkins are listed as day-to-day.

KEY MATCHUP:
Alperen Sengun vs. the Pelicans' Interior Defense
Sengun’s ability to dominate the paint with his rebounding and passing could be a deciding factor. Without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans’ defense will be shorthanded and at risk of being overpowered by Houston’s size and depth.

PREDICTION:
The Rockets are heavy favorites for a reason. With no major injuries and a strong rebounding game, Houston should control the tempo and exploit the Pelicans’ lack of offensive firepower. Expect Houston to extend New Orleans’ losing streak in convincing fashion.

Final Score Prediction: Rockets 114, Pelicans 98


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