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How NFL, Texans will value veteran running backs

Texans DeMeco Ryans, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs
Will the Texans pony up for Saquon Barkley? Composite Getty Image.

Derrick Henry is back in the gym, eager to prove turning 30 is just a number that shouldn’t affect the four-time Pro Bowl running back’s value on the NFL's open market.

The man who organized a group chat among the league's top running backs last summer is about to find out exactly what teams are willing to pay for proven experience.

And Henry has company with stars such as Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard — the three running backs hit with franchise tags in 2023 — also hitting free agency. Barkley didn't sign his tag and wound up playing last season for $10.1 million.

So will these running backs find big contracts when the NFL free agent market opens next week? Or will they have to be patient, choosy or simply have to settle for less?

“We’re all going to find out,” Texans general manager Nick Caserio said. “Free agency is just — it’s what does the market tell you? And then any player, what are you willing to pay that player commensurate with their role?”

The cost of free agents changes every March with the start of each new NFL year. Positions get slotted, and running backs have been hit the hardest with less expensive replacements available. Only kickers and punters are paid less on average by position than backs whose bodies take crunching hits every handoff and block.

No NFL team in the offseason gave itself more negotiating time with either a franchise or transition tag on a running back that would've cost a mere $9.7 million for 2024. Again, only kickers and punters had a lower value.

Of the nine total tags since the start of the offseason, seven went to defensive players.

So a group of experienced and talented players is poised to hit the free agent market.

“There’s some good names there,” Giants GM Joe Schoen said at the NFL combine last week. “I mean, it’s a little bit of a saturated market. There are some guys at different ages that have had success, there’s some older guys that have had some success. So, it’s a diverse group.”

Age isn't a factor for Jacobs at just 26. But he is coming off his worst season, having rushed for only 805 yards last season, and the Raiders also have Zamir White as they look for a possible replacement for Jacobs.

"The talent pool at that position in free agency is relatively high,” Raiders GM Tom Telesco said.

Even with the jump in the NFL salary cap for 2024, running backs may be forced to be patient and choosy.

One thing in their favor? The pool for running backs in April's draft is a bit shallow with only 12 projected as fifth-round picks or better out of 35 graded before the combine.

Incoming running backs have noticed the low value the NFL has placed on their position. Blake Corum of Michigan said it's up to running backs to fix that narrative by being game-changers.

“Running backs obviously want to get paid more, but at the end of the day it is what it is, you can only control the controllables and that's the way I look at it so I'm not so worried about it,” Corum said.

Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that just because the market price hasn't risen along with others doesn't negate the impact of good running backs.

"All it does is take one team, one deal to reset a market and change things,” Adofo-Mensah said. "I’m not going to say that it’s not going to be this year, but there’s a lot of exciting options on the market. We’ll take a look at them like we take a look at every position.”

Henry made clear after the Titans' season ended that he was looking forward to becoming a free agent, essentially for the first time since high school. He agreed to a four-year extension after being tagged in 2020.

Yes, he turned 30 in January, but the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner started only four games combined over his first two seasons in the NFL behind DeMarco Murray. Henry led the NFL in carries with 280 and was second in rushing behind the 49ers' Christian McCaffrey in 2023.

One of only eight men to run for at least 2,000 yards in a season, Henry also is tied for 13th in NFL history with 90 rushing TDs, tied with Eric Dickerson and Curtis Martin. He's also 508 yards from passing Eddie George as the franchise's career leading rusher.

Whether Henry gets that chance has been the most popular question in Tennessee for general manager Ran Carthon. He goes into his second season with a new coach in Brian Callahan and Tyjae Spears, a big dual threat out of the backfield as a rookie in 2023.

“I have a responsibility to build this team long term,” he said. "And like I said, we’ll cross that bridge with Derrick and his team when we get there.”

That time is here. The only question is at what price.

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Gerrit Cole and Hunter Brown share the same agent now. Composite Getty Image.

There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.

Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.

The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.

But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.

The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.

Astros pitcher hires a new agent

Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.

But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.

With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.

However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.

Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).

Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.

I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.

There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?

Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.

If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.

One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.

Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.

It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.

The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.

Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?

After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.

And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.

So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.

Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.

Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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