DOLLARS AND SENSE
Why the price to draft Will Anderson Jr. is not as steep as it seems for Texans
May 2, 2023, 2:10 pm
The Texans spent a lot of draft capital on Will Anderson Jr. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images.
The Houston Texans stole headlines last Thursday when they traded up just moments after selecting Ohio State quarterback CJ. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick to take Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3 overall.
Houston came away with potentially its franchise quarterback and arguably the best defensive prospect in this year’s draft. Despite the shocking move, however, there were some concerns raised about the price the Texans paid to trade up. While at first glance, the cost to move up is eye-popping, here is why it might not be as expensive as it may seem.
Houston traded its No. 12 and No. 33 overall picks in the 2023 draft and also included its own first-round pick and a third-round pick in the 2024 draft.
In exchange, the Texans landed the No. 3 overall pick that was used to take Anderson, and they also got an additional 2023 fourth-round pick, No. 105 overall, from the Arizona Cardinals. Houston later traded that fourth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for a 2024 third-round pick.
When it was all said and done, the Texans essentially swapped the No. 12 pick to move up to No. 3 and the main cost was giving up their second-round pick (No. 33) and their own first-round pick for next season. The third-round pick Houston obtained from Philadelphia helps minimize the one it gave to Arizona.
The Texans losing their first-round pick is also mitigated by the fact they still own the Cleveland Browns’ 2024 first-round pick from the Deshaun Watson trade.
The biggest cause for concern for Houston is that despite still holding the first-round pick from Cleveland, its own first-round pick that now belongs to Arizona could be a really high selection in 2024.
While that is a valid concern, if both Stroud and Anderson turn out to be home run picks that Houston’s staff envisions they will be, the chances the Texans remain a bottom team in the NFL are reduced.
At the end of the day, what will determine if the Texans paid too much of a price to move up in the 2023 draft will be determined by two factors that are closely linked. The first is how good Houston is during the 2023 season.
The trade sort of becomes a bet, and general manager Nick Caserio and head coach DeMeco Ryans are doubling down that the team has its cornerstone players with Stroud and Anderson. The better Houston does, the less expensive giving up its own first-round pick becomes.
With the Texans residing in the AFC South, being a competitive six-to-eight win team is not that far out of the realm either. Houston, with all the holes it had on the roster, defeated all three AFC South opponents in 2022.
Add in the fact that the Cleveland Browns play in the much tougher AFC North that features the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals, and it shouldn’t be too shocking if this time next year the Browns’ pick is higher than Houston’s.
The second factor that will determine whether Houston paid too much to move up comes down to the play of Anderson. With Ryans at the helm, it is no doubt he had a big influence in the Texans’ decision to pursue the Crimson Tide player.
If Anderson develops into an every down impact player and a Pro Bowler year in and year out, no one will remember the price Houston paid to take him. The better he does, the more likely the Texans will find success on the field as well.Ultimately, the Texans are going all in, and only time will tell if the payout will be a jackpot.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
How Rockets' latest financial gambles shake up the team and its future
Oct 22, 2024, 3:10 pm
C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are looking for answers after their passing game couldn’t get going in a loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Houston’s passing attack had been a strength all season, and the Texans ranked fifth in yards passing per game through their first six games. But on Sunday at Lambeau Field, Stroud was limited to a career-low 86 yards in the 24-22 loss, which snapped a three-game winning streak.
Stroud was 10 of 21 and didn’t have a touchdown pass for the first time this season. The second-year player was under duress for much of the day and was sacked four times and hit seven other times.
“We have to go back to the drawing board and see what those issues were,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “As we watch the film, we’ll see what happened, starting for me the communication and just guys being on the details of the job.”
'Everything is on the table. We have to get it fixed' #Texans coach DeMeco Ryans on offensive line and if personnel changes are being contemplated @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/AwK0rqeU2z
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 21, 2024
The Texans scored a season-high 41 points in a win over New England a week earlier in which Stroud threw a season-best three touchdown passes despite being without star receiver Nico Collins.
They were unable to replicate that success Sunday with Collins out for the second of at least four games after a hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve.
Stefon Diggs led the team with five receptions against the Packers, but they only amounted to 23 yards. Tank Dell, who the Texans expected to step up with Collins out, was targeted four times but didn’t have a catch.
Stroud discussed the importance of getting Dell more involved in the offense.
“We have to find a way to try and get him the rock early and often and then go from there,” he said. “It has to be a focus for us, not only just him, but the whole offense clicking early. That is really my job to get the ball out on time and to where it is supposed to go. So yeah, that definitely has to be fixed.”
Ryans spoke about his confidence is getting Dell going.
'I have all the faith in Tank' #Texans coach DeMeco Ryans expressed confidence in Tank Dell ability to get back to making explosive plays again as he did as a rookie @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/bojBEx3lYo
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 21, 2024
What's working
The Texans have forced seven turnovers combined in their last two games after they hadn’t caused any in their previous three games.
Houston scored 16 points off three turnovers Sunday. The Texans had two interceptions and recovered a fumble on a punt. In their win over the Patriots, they scored 17 points off a season-high four turnovers.
What needs help
The Texans won’t get to where they want to be this season if Stroud doesn’t get back on track. Before Sunday, last year’s AP Offensive Rookie of the Year was averaging more than 262 yards passing a game, giving the team confidence that the problems in the passing game are fixable.
Ryans knows the line must give Stroud more time to throw and said the coaching staff will focus on improving in that area this week.
Stock up
RB Joe Mixon continued to shine Sunday in his second game back after missing three games with an ankle injury. Mixon, who is in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati, had 25 carries for 115 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay.
Mixon is confident the Texans will rebound this week if they quit making mistakes.
“Does it look I’m worried? I’m not worried at all,” he said. “Like I said, we got a ... good football team. At the end of the day, we are our own worst enemy.”
Stock down
Dell was unable to help Stroud get the passing game going. The second-year player had a solid rookie season with 709 yards receiving and seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg. But he hasn’t been able to build on that success this year and has just 194 yards receiving with one score in six games.
Injuries
LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), LB Henry To’oTo’o (concussion), CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) and S Jimmie Ward (groin) all missed Sunday’s game and it’s unclear if any of these starters can return this week.
Key number
3 — Safety Calen Bullock had his third interception Sunday to tie Dunta Robinson and Jumal Rolle for most interceptions by a rookie in franchise history through the first seven games. He leads NFL rookies in interceptions this season and is tied for third-most among all players.
Next steps
The AFC South-leading Texans (5-2) return to division play Sunday when they host the second-place Colts (4-3), who have won two in a row and four of five.