DOLLARS AND SENSE

Why the price to draft Will Anderson Jr. is not as steep as it seems for Texans

Why the price to draft Will Anderson Jr. is not as steep as it seems for Texans
The Texans spent a lot of draft capital on Will Anderson Jr. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images.

The Houston Texans stole headlines last Thursday when they traded up just moments after selecting Ohio State quarterback CJ. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick to take Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3 overall.

Houston came away with potentially its franchise quarterback and arguably the best defensive prospect in this year’s draft. Despite the shocking move, however, there were some concerns raised about the price the Texans paid to trade up. While at first glance, the cost to move up is eye-popping, here is why it might not be as expensive as it may seem.

Houston traded its No. 12 and No. 33 overall picks in the 2023 draft and also included its own first-round pick and a third-round pick in the 2024 draft.

In exchange, the Texans landed the No. 3 overall pick that was used to take Anderson, and they also got an additional 2023 fourth-round pick, No. 105 overall, from the Arizona Cardinals. Houston later traded that fourth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for a 2024 third-round pick.

When it was all said and done, the Texans essentially swapped the No. 12 pick to move up to No. 3 and the main cost was giving up their second-round pick (No. 33) and their own first-round pick for next season. The third-round pick Houston obtained from Philadelphia helps minimize the one it gave to Arizona.

The Texans losing their first-round pick is also mitigated by the fact they still own the Cleveland Browns’ 2024 first-round pick from the Deshaun Watson trade.

The biggest cause for concern for Houston is that despite still holding the first-round pick from Cleveland, its own first-round pick that now belongs to Arizona could be a really high selection in 2024.

While that is a valid concern, if both Stroud and Anderson turn out to be home run picks that Houston’s staff envisions they will be, the chances the Texans remain a bottom team in the NFL are reduced.

At the end of the day, what will determine if the Texans paid too much of a price to move up in the 2023 draft will be determined by two factors that are closely linked. The first is how good Houston is during the 2023 season.

The trade sort of becomes a bet, and general manager Nick Caserio and head coach DeMeco Ryans are doubling down that the team has its cornerstone players with Stroud and Anderson. The better Houston does, the less expensive giving up its own first-round pick becomes.

With the Texans residing in the AFC South, being a competitive six-to-eight win team is not that far out of the realm either. Houston, with all the holes it had on the roster, defeated all three AFC South opponents in 2022.

Add in the fact that the Cleveland Browns play in the much tougher AFC North that features the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals, and it shouldn’t be too shocking if this time next year the Browns’ pick is higher than Houston’s.

The second factor that will determine whether Houston paid too much to move up comes down to the play of Anderson. With Ryans at the helm, it is no doubt he had a big influence in the Texans’ decision to pursue the Crimson Tide player.

If Anderson develops into an every down impact player and a Pro Bowler year in and year out, no one will remember the price Houston paid to take him. The better he does, the more likely the Texans will find success on the field as well.Ultimately, the Texans are going all in, and only time will tell if the payout will be a jackpot.

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It could be a big night for Alperen Sengun. Photo by David Berding/Getty Images.

When: Thursday, 8 p.m. EST
Where: Houston, TX
BetMGM Line: Rockets -10; Over/Under 219

BOTTOM LINE:
The New Orleans Pelicans are looking to end a four-game skid as they take on the Houston Rockets, who have established themselves as a force in the Western Conference this season.

The Rockets (17-9) currently sit third in the West and boast one of the league's best rebounding units, led by Alperen Sengun. Houston has dominated within the division, posting a 4-1 record against Southwest Division opponents. Meanwhile, the Pelicans (5-22) have struggled mightily, especially within their division, where they remain winless at 0-3.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

  • Houston’s Rebounding Edge
    The Rockets lead the Western Conference in rebounding, averaging 49.3 boards per game. Alperen Sengun has been a standout, contributing 10.6 rebounds along with 18.6 points and 5.2 assists per contest. This could spell trouble for a Pelicans squad that has been outmuscled on the glass in recent outings.
  • Pelicans’ Scoring Woes
    New Orleans ranks last in the Western Conference in scoring, putting up just 105.1 points per game on 43.7% shooting. Their offense will be further hampered by injuries to key players like Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Zion Williamson (hamstring), leaving the team with limited options to generate points.
  • Defensive Disparities
    While the Rockets aren’t elite defensively, allowing 106.1 points per game, they should benefit from the Pelicans' offensive struggles. Houston's opponents are shooting just 42.5% in the Rockets' last 10 games, a figure that contrasts with the 48.3% shooting New Orleans allows to opposing teams over the season.

RECENT FORM:

  • Rockets: Houston is 6-4 over its last 10 games, averaging 108.0 points and 47.3 rebounds while holding opponents to 106.0 points. The Rockets have been solid on both ends, particularly in forcing turnovers, as they average 8.3 steals and 6.1 blocks per game.
  • Pelicans: New Orleans has dropped nine of its last 10 games, scoring 107.3 points on 43.9% shooting while giving up a whopping 118.9 points per game to opponents. Injuries have ravaged the Pelicans’ lineup, leaving them vulnerable in both scoring and defense.

INJURY REPORT:

  • Rockets: No injuries reported.
  • Pelicans: Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Zion Williamson (hamstring) are out, while Jose Alvarado (hamstring) is also sidelined. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Karlo Matkovic, and Jordan Hawkins are listed as day-to-day.

KEY MATCHUP:
Alperen Sengun vs. the Pelicans' Interior Defense
Sengun’s ability to dominate the paint with his rebounding and passing could be a deciding factor. Without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans’ defense will be shorthanded and at risk of being overpowered by Houston’s size and depth.

PREDICTION:
The Rockets are heavy favorites for a reason. With no major injuries and a strong rebounding game, Houston should control the tempo and exploit the Pelicans’ lack of offensive firepower. Expect Houston to extend New Orleans’ losing streak in convincing fashion.

Final Score Prediction: Rockets 114, Pelicans 98


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