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What conflicting win-loss projections reveal about Houston Texans 2023 outlook
May 10, 2023, 1:38 pm
Houston’s schedule is set to release on Thursday. Composite Getty Image.
How the Houston Texans could find themselves adding lightning to thunder
The NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, and with it, the desire to fast-forward to September is at its highest. As fans look ahead, so have the odds makers with the release of the over/under win totals for the 2023 season.
When it comes to the Houston Texans the magic number has hovered around six wins. Caesars Sportsbook has the Texans at 5.5 wins for the upcoming season.
Houston’s draft day moves headlined by taking C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. did not sway the sportsbook odds makers as the Texans’ 5.5 wins stayed the same before and after draft day in Caesars Sportsbook.
DraftKings also released its over/under win totals. It is a little bit more optimistic on the Texans putting their magic number at 6.5 wins for the 2023 season. The question is, which is more likely for the Texans? Getting 7 or more wins or finishing with 5 or less?
With Houston’s schedule set to release on Thursday now is the time for fans to go all-in on either taking the over or the under. While the Texans don’t know when they will play each opponent yet, they already know who they are going to play and where.
An opponents reminder ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/97sdimjucE
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) May 8, 2023
Houston’s schedule consists of battling the AFC North and the NFC South; facing the worst 2022 teams in the AFC West, NFC West and AFC East, which were the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets; and of course facing each AFC South opponent twice.
Heading into the 2023 season, which has the biggest subject to change asterisk possible, the Cardinals are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. Caesars Sportsbook has their over/under at 5.5 wins while DraftKings has it at just 4.5 wins. The Texans will play them at home. Let’s count that as one win.
The Denver Broncos are the team entering the new year with the biggest question mark. After heavily underperforming in 2022, Denver was able to hire Sean Payton, and it is looking to make a run with Russell Wilson at quarterback.
The Texans and Broncos’ 2022 meeting was a tight defensive battle that saw Denver pull away late. With the 2023 game at home, Houston could come out victorious in a rematch with the mile high team. Let’s mark it at two wins.
The New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are all similar in that on paper, they should have better seasons than Houston. So let’s put them all as favorites against the Texans, and say Houston can upset one of them. That is three wins.
Houston’s road schedule includes facing the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. It’s safe to pencil both those games as losses as of May. The Texans will also play against the new-look New York Jets with Aaron Rodgers on the road. How that game goes could be decided by when it comes on the schedule. For the sake of simplicity, pencil that game as a loss.
The Texans will also travel to Atlanta. The Falcons are expected to be among the middle-of-the-pack to lower tier teams in the NFL. Caesars has their win total at 8 games while DraftKings has it at 8.5.
Houston will also travel to Carolina and that game will revolve around the battle of top rookie quarterbacks in the 2023 class between Stroud and the Panthers’ Bryce Young. Both Caesars and DraftKings agree on Carolina’s over/under at 7.5.
The matchups against Atlanta and Carolina could be seen as tossups, with the home team having the edge in both of them. For this article, let's say Houston splits those games. That puts them at four wins.
Now the final piece of the 2023 schedule puzzle is with the AFC South. The Texans play six games — featuring two games each against the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Texans went 3-2-1 against the AFC South in 2022. It is safe to assume Houston can come away with at least three wins again considering both the Titans and Colts appear to be in a transition phase after selecting rookie quarterbacks in the 2023 draft. Houston also has more talent than the 2022 roster heading into the 2023 season.
That puts the Texans at a grand total of seven wins, which is above both Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings. It could be optimism. But perhaps the sports books are a little too conservative when it comes to Houston. Who dares to take the bet?
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The Texans make just their third ever visit to Lambeau Field Sunday. It’s a dandy matchup as the Texans try to run their record to 6-1 at the expense of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers. The Texans have one win and one loss in Wisconsin. In 2008 the gameday high temperature was 13 degrees. Kris Brown kicked a 40 yard field goal as time expired to give the Texans a 24-21 win over a Packers team that struggled to a 6-10 record under first-year starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Texans posted their second consecutive 8-8 finish that year. In 2016 the mercury reached a balmy high of 34 degrees as the Texans fell 21-13 at Lambeau. Inexplicably, Rodgers somehow managed to win the quarterback matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Texans and Packers each won their division that year. Both Texans’ trips to “America’s Dairyland” occurred in December. No risk of frozen tundra this time around. The forecast for Green Bay Sunday calls for a high of 75 degrees! That’s almost 20 degrees warmer than normal there for October 20.
It’s a dynamic QB matchup with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love sharing the field. Love broke out in a huge way in 2023 after serving a two-year apprenticeship under Rodgers. After a stumbling 3-6 start to their season the Packers went 6-2 the rest of the way to snag a playoff spot. They obliterated the Cowboys in a Wild Card game in Arlington (before everyone obliterated the Cowboys in Arlington...) then led at the 49ers with under 90 seconds to go before San Francisco scored to win 24-21. The Packers made crystal clear their belief in Love by signing him to a four-year 220 million dollar contract extension in July. That’s 55 mil per season. Stroud becomes extension-eligible after next season. Anyone think he won’t be in position to command at least 65 mil per season?
Stroud sure looks to be the guy to finally give the Texans the long-term stability and excellence they have never had at the most important position in the sport. The Pack is all in on Love continuing its unreal long-term QB stability and excellence. Love took the reins after Rodgers helmed the offense for 15 seasons. Rodgers took the reins after Brett Favre’s 16-year tenure. So if Love makes it for nine years as the starter, that’s three primary QBs in 40 years. Absolutely amazing.
After missing two games because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in the final seconds of the Packers’ season opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes in three games. But he has only completed 59 percent of his passes, and has thrown at least one interception per game.
The Texans’ first trip to the NFC North this season went brutally badly, the 34-7 beatdown from Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in week four of the season. That was Love’s first game back, he threw four touchdown passes and three picks. One defensive weapon the Texans will have against the Pack they did not have against the Vikes is Denico Autry. The 34-year-old Autry returns from his six-game banned substance suspension. That happens as one of the fill-ins for him, Mario Edwards, starts his own four-game substance abuse suspension. That should be a net improvement for the Texans.
X-factors
The single biggest variable in swinging the outcome of football games is turnovers. So far this season the Packers have been a takeaway machine. Last season the Packers generated just 18 turnovers over their 17 regular season games, only six teams took the ball away less often. Through just six games this season the Packers already have 17 takeaways. No other NFL team has more than 13, the Texans have just seven. The Packers have produced exactly three turnovers in five of their six games, and got two in the other. Every defense preaches turnovers, so it’s not as if first-year Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has introduced radical concepts that are yielding magical results. But the results are what they are.
If the Texans take care of the ball, they have a terrific chance to win. Having Joe Mixon back aids the cause on two fronts. One, Mixon is obviously the Texans’ best running back. Two, Mixon last fumbled in 2021. The Texans probably best plan to score 25 or more points to win this one because the Packers figure to score a bit. In Love’s four starts the Pack has lit the scoreboard for 29, 29, 24, and 34 points. On the other hand, the Texans’ D has been pretty stout, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (Green Bay rates 18th). It’s a strength vs. strength battle. The Texans have allowed no opponent more than 313 yards in total offense. The Packers have amassed at least 378 yards in five of their six games, and managed 328 in their worst performance.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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