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What conflicting win-loss projections reveal about Houston Texans 2023 outlook
May 10, 2023, 1:38 pm
Houston’s schedule is set to release on Thursday. Composite Getty Image.
How the Houston Texans could find themselves adding lightning to thunder
The NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, and with it, the desire to fast-forward to September is at its highest. As fans look ahead, so have the odds makers with the release of the over/under win totals for the 2023 season.
When it comes to the Houston Texans the magic number has hovered around six wins. Caesars Sportsbook has the Texans at 5.5 wins for the upcoming season.
Houston’s draft day moves headlined by taking C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. did not sway the sportsbook odds makers as the Texans’ 5.5 wins stayed the same before and after draft day in Caesars Sportsbook.
DraftKings also released its over/under win totals. It is a little bit more optimistic on the Texans putting their magic number at 6.5 wins for the 2023 season. The question is, which is more likely for the Texans? Getting 7 or more wins or finishing with 5 or less?
With Houston’s schedule set to release on Thursday now is the time for fans to go all-in on either taking the over or the under. While the Texans don’t know when they will play each opponent yet, they already know who they are going to play and where.
An opponents reminder ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/97sdimjucE
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) May 8, 2023
Houston’s schedule consists of battling the AFC North and the NFC South; facing the worst 2022 teams in the AFC West, NFC West and AFC East, which were the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets; and of course facing each AFC South opponent twice.
Heading into the 2023 season, which has the biggest subject to change asterisk possible, the Cardinals are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. Caesars Sportsbook has their over/under at 5.5 wins while DraftKings has it at just 4.5 wins. The Texans will play them at home. Let’s count that as one win.
The Denver Broncos are the team entering the new year with the biggest question mark. After heavily underperforming in 2022, Denver was able to hire Sean Payton, and it is looking to make a run with Russell Wilson at quarterback.
The Texans and Broncos’ 2022 meeting was a tight defensive battle that saw Denver pull away late. With the 2023 game at home, Houston could come out victorious in a rematch with the mile high team. Let’s mark it at two wins.
The New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are all similar in that on paper, they should have better seasons than Houston. So let’s put them all as favorites against the Texans, and say Houston can upset one of them. That is three wins.
Houston’s road schedule includes facing the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. It’s safe to pencil both those games as losses as of May. The Texans will also play against the new-look New York Jets with Aaron Rodgers on the road. How that game goes could be decided by when it comes on the schedule. For the sake of simplicity, pencil that game as a loss.
The Texans will also travel to Atlanta. The Falcons are expected to be among the middle-of-the-pack to lower tier teams in the NFL. Caesars has their win total at 8 games while DraftKings has it at 8.5.
Houston will also travel to Carolina and that game will revolve around the battle of top rookie quarterbacks in the 2023 class between Stroud and the Panthers’ Bryce Young. Both Caesars and DraftKings agree on Carolina’s over/under at 7.5.
The matchups against Atlanta and Carolina could be seen as tossups, with the home team having the edge in both of them. For this article, let's say Houston splits those games. That puts them at four wins.
Now the final piece of the 2023 schedule puzzle is with the AFC South. The Texans play six games — featuring two games each against the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Texans went 3-2-1 against the AFC South in 2022. It is safe to assume Houston can come away with at least three wins again considering both the Titans and Colts appear to be in a transition phase after selecting rookie quarterbacks in the 2023 draft. Houston also has more talent than the 2022 roster heading into the 2023 season.
That puts the Texans at a grand total of seven wins, which is above both Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings. It could be optimism. But perhaps the sports books are a little too conservative when it comes to Houston. Who dares to take the bet?
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The Jets host the Texans and their scary defense on Halloween night! Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT, Amazon Prime
BetMGM NFL odds: Jets by 2.
Against the spread: Texans 3-4-1; Jets 2-6.
Series record: Jets lead 7-3.
Last meeting: Jets beat Texans 30-6 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 10, 2023.
Last week: Texans beat Colts 23-20; Jets lost to Patriots 25-22.
Texans offense: overall (9t), rush (18), pass (8), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (13), pass (3), scoring (15t).
Jets offense: overall (24), rush (30), pass (13), scoring (25).
Jets defense: overall (4), rush (17), pass (2), scoring (11t).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-4; Jets minus-3.
Texans player to watch
RB Joe Mixon. He has carried Houston's offense in the three games since he returned from an injury and could be even more important this week after wide receiver Stefon Diggs tore the ACL in his right knee last Sunday and is out for the season. Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games.
Jets player to watch
Edge rusher Haason Reddick. After ending his lengthy contract holdout early last week, Reddick made his Jets debut and played 26 snaps on defense with two quarterback pressures while working mostly on third downs. His snaps might increase a bit Thursday and he could help the Jets get after C.J. Stroud, who has been sacked 22 times this season — tied for third most in the NFL.
Key matchup
Jets offensive line vs. Texans' pass rush. New York has had issues this season with injuries, consistency and protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Jets will face a tough test Thursday night against the Texans, whose 27 sacks are third in the NFL. DE Will Anderson Jr. is tied for third in the league with a career-high 7 1/2 sacks, including at least one in his past three games. DE Danielle Hunter has 5 1/2 sacks and DT Tim Settle has four, powering a formidable defensive front for Houston. Hunter leads the league with 51 quarterback pressures and Anderson is fourth with 39, the only teammates in the top 15, according to Next Gen Stats.
Key injuries
Diggs' injury leaves Houston without its top two receivers. Nico Collins, who leads the Texans with 567 yards receiving, is out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. ... S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game, but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward could miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury. … LG Jarrett Patterson is in the concussion protocol and is likely out. … RB Dameon Pierce missed practice this week with a groin injury. ... Jets LB C.J. Mosley suffered a stinger in his neck during pregame warmups at New England and was meeting with neck and spine specialists this week. ... RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), WR Allen Lazard (chest), DL Leki Fotu (knee) and safeties Tony Adams (hamstring) and Ashtyn Davis (concussion) all missed the game vs. the Patriots and their availability for this week was uncertain. ... K Greg Zuerlein was placed on IR. Riley Patterson and Spencer Shrader were signed to the practice squad, and one will be promoted for the game.
Series notes
The Jets have won the past two meetings. ... New York won the first five meetings, including the first game between the franchises in 2003, when LaMont Jordan's late 8-yard touchdown run helped lift the Jets to a 19-14 victory. ... Zach Wilson threw two touchdown passes in the most recent meeting, a 30-6 rout by New York during which Stroud left with a concussion.
Stats and stuff
The AFC South-leading Texans have won four of their past five. ... Stroud is 2-0 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in prime time. He had 285 yards passing last week for his ninth career game with at least that many yards passing, which is tied for second most in the NFL since 2023. ... WR Tank Dell had a touchdown reception last week and has a TD catch in two of his past three games. ... TE Dalton Schultz had a season-high 52 yards receiving against the Colts. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two Thursday night games. ... Hunter has 10½ sacks in eight career Thursday night games. … LB Neville Hewitt, who spent the 2018-21 seasons with the Jets, forced a fumble last week. … Rookie CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high three passes defended last week. … S Jalen Pitre had his first interception of the season last week. ... S Eric Murray had seven tackles and a season-high three passes defended last week. ... New York is trying to snap a five-game skid. ... Jeff Ulbrich is 0-3 as the Jets’ interim head coach since replacing the fired Robert Saleh on Oct. 8. Ulbrich, also the team's defensive coordinator, said earlier this week he'll continue to call plays on defense. … Rodgers snapped a streak of three consecutive games with an interception. He has seven in eight games, six shy of his single-season career high set in 2008 in his first year as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. ... Rodgers hasn't passed for 300 yards since throwing for 341 against Chicago on Dec. 12, 2021 — a span of 30 regular-season games and 31 overall, including one playoff game. ... WR Garrett Wilson leads the NFL with 84 targets, 11 more than the Giants’ Malik Nabers. Wilson’s 51 receptions are second in the league behind Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers, who has 52. ... WR Davante Adams had four catches for 54 yards, giving him seven receptions for 84 yards in two games since being acquired from the Raiders. ... Second-year WR Xavier Gipson caught his first career TD pass last Sunday. ... TE Tyler Conklin has a TD catch in consecutive games after not having one since catching two TD passes in Week 8 of the 2022 season against New England. ... RB Breece Hall has 316 yards receiving, the most among NFL running backs. ... Edge rusher Will McDonald has eight sacks, second in the NFL to the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence (nine). … The Jets have only six takeaways, ranking among the fewest in the league. Backup CB Brandin Echols has New York's only two interceptions.
Fantasy tip
Houston wide receiver John Metchie is coming off a career-best three-catch game and could see more targets — and perhaps his first NFL touchdown — with both Diggs and Collins out. Might be worth a stash as a potential WR3.
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