Will Small Ball be the New Wildcat offense?
Overcoming obstacles: The new era of Rockets small ball
Feb 12, 2020, 2:24 pm
What is the definition of insanity? According to Albert Einstein insanity is "Doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results." Being a Rockets fan is exactly that. During the trade deadline, Houston traded away their starting Center Clint Capela out East to the Atlanta Hawks. Subsequently the founder of "Small Ball," Mike D'Antoni could go back to his old ways of playing with five perimeter players at once to spread the floor and opening up the opportunity to shoot more threes. Although this style of play is fun to watch and caters to his personnel, this will not bring sustainable success. Since the small ball experiment has begun, the Rockets are 2-2 and have had impressive wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics. However, how long will this last?
Let's start with the facts there are a bunch of good teams in the Western Conference, but for the Rockets standpoint, it's really a three-team race. The Nuggets have a good team, but will not likely outscore or be able to defend Houston, unless the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray P&R is too much to handle. Then there is Utah who I believe is a little better suited to match up with Rockets, but will eventually fall in six to seven games. Finally, there are the LA teams. With this small ball lineup to work its best the floor has to spaced properly and you have to make a high percentage of your threes. However, the two LA teams have something most teams don't, and that is mobile big and versatile defenders.
The Lakers have the best power forward in the league who is a legit DPOY candidate every year in Anthony Davis. Davis also can give you 25 point double-double night in and night out. The Brow is agile enough to move around defensively and contest three-point shots while being disciplined and athletic enough to hold is own against perimeter players. Keep in mind the Lakers have versatile defenders that can get in a stance and guard. If Davis learns to be more patient in the post when he catches it and find the open shooters or seals off defenders under the basket instead of taking contested fadeaways. The Lakers could beat the Rockets in six games.
As for the Clippers, they are all about defensive versatility and have interchangeable wings that are 6'7 and taller. I know the Rockets are 2-1 against the Clippers this season, but the addition of Marcus Morris makes them a lot more dangerous on both ends of the floor and is the piece they need to win a title this summer. With so many switchable defensive players they can switch everything and not worry too much about getting beat off the dribble. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the best two defensive wings in the NBA and playing small ball against them could be an issue. The Clippers, in my opinion, are the last team Houston wants to face in the playoffs.
Going forward, the Rockets will win around 55 games a year, but this new lineup will not bring long playoff success. They will be lucky to make it to the WCF consistently. This style of play reminds of the Miami Dolphins in 2008 when they brought in the wildcat offense. For about a year this offense seemed impossible to stop, the Dolphins even won the AFC East division. Soon after teams began to figure it out and catch on sending the Dolphins back to drawing board once again. Yes, they are making more threes but it won't matter when the opposing teams are getting 20 more shot attempts due to Houston's inability offensive rebound. This lineup change will wear them down eventually, it is hard to bang down low when your body isn't used to it. Both LA teams are ranked in the top 10 in NBA Team Opponent three-point percentage, Defensive Efficiency, and NBA Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage. Since 2012 when James Harden has become a Rocket he hasn't had much playoff success and there is always some excuse. He hasn't played with several future Hall of Famers, a coach that created a system around him and an organization that has backed him when he comes up short. It's time to put up or shut. Get the job done or continue to be on the list of seven NBA MVPs to never win a championship.
Imagine if he takes this shot on the block? How much easier would this shot be. Good move but he’s making Tuckers j… https://t.co/op3rP1QeNw— Tobias Bass (@Tobias Bass) 1581118450.0
Same issue here, why fade-away? Kick it out to LeBron for a step-in 3pt shot. No reason the Rockets should of beate… https://t.co/9w3JoRbNZH— Tobias Bass (@Tobias Bass) 1581117413.0
AD needs to get deeper in the post. Why Shoot a contested hook-shot over a 6’3 Eric Gordon? He could also be more p… https://t.co/DdiwzT9HiS— Tobias Bass (@Tobias Bass) 1581117219.0
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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