Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
After losing Game One of the ALCS by putting a donut in the run column, a lot of Astros fans panicked. Some blamed Zack Greinke, some blamed the bats, others gave the Yankees too much credit. While they did play well enough to earn that win, there were several instances in which the Astros shot themselves in the foot. Game Two came along and fans were happy because Justin Verlander was on the mound. Verlander pitched 6 2/3 innings, only giving up two runs, and deserved to have won that game. The team won 3-2 thanks to Carlos Correa's walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th inning, but Verlander got a no decision.
With the series tied 1-1 and headed to the Bronx for the next three games, there's still reason for optimism. Despite the poor performances at the plate by the lineup, despite the bullpen concerns, despite not having faith in anyone not named Verlander or Gerrit Cole, I still believe in this team's chances to win, dammit! And here's why:
Correa's home run was a spark
Going back to Correa's home run, I think it sparks something for this team. Moments like this can galvanize a team and start a movement. Remember back in 2017 when "Club Astros" was a thing? Remember how loose this team played? Right now, they're more the hunted than the hunters. The pressure has built up and it may be getting to them, especially given how tight they seem to be at the plate. Maybe Correa's walk-off (with the ensuing antics) are a way to light a fire underneath this team? Don't be surprised to see the dugout get more lively and/or better, more loose plate appearances.
Aaron Boone panicked
In Game Two, I think Yankee's manager Aaron Boone panicked. He pulled starter James Paxton after 2 1/3 innings pitched and proceeded to use eight more pitchers the rest of the way. A couple of those guys were/are potential Game Four starters, or they're reliable bullpen arms who were called into duty too soon. Their bullpen is better than what the Astros have, but they're tired out early in this series, advantage Astros. If Boone continues to manage scared to lose, again, advantage Astros.
Cole > Luis Severino in Game Three
Severino was quoted as saying he's not nervous about facing off against Cole in Game Three and having to outduel him (I'm paraphrasing here). He thinks that all he has to do is match what Cole does. Mind you, Severino has only pitched in three games since returning from injury. Sure he was their ace to start this season, but at 25 years old with only a handful of experience, do we really think he can hang with Cole? Answer: HELL NAH! The Astros haven't lost a Cole start since Prohibition. He's either the Cy Young winner this season, or runner-up. Cole had 326 K's this season and 25 in his two postseason starts. Good luck keeping up Luis! (sarcasm font for the humor-impaired).
Injuries
No team was hit harder by the injury bug than the Yankees this season. They had 4,672 guys on their roster miss time due to injury this season. The Astros were bit by the injury bug as well, but not as bad. That being said, I think the Yankees have a Mr. Glass feel to them. They're the more injury-prone team of the two. While they embodied the "next man up" mentality this season, the Astros did as well. The difference lies in the fact that one of their biggest bats (Giancarlo Stanton) missed Game Two because of a right quadricep strain and is day to day, while the Astros biggest injury concern this past season just won Game Two via walk-off. Again, advantage Astros.
Managerial Experience
AJ Hinch > Brett Boone. There it is. I'm done with this section. If you need further explanation, seek help elsewhere because I don't have the crayons or enough three-line kindergarten paper to explain this to you.
Bottom line here folks: while the Yankees appear to have flipped homefield advantage by winning Game One, the Astros will #TakeItBack and win at least one or two in the Bronx. I'm calling it now: Astros in six, no more than seven. This team is just too damn good and too loaded to clam up and go home like they did last year against the Red Sox. If they only win every Verlander and Cole starts in this series (or maybe squeak out another), they got this series in the bag. Like I mentioned last week, there's no need to panic. this team is fully capable of winning another World Series. Let's take it one game at a time and keep the faith.
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As the Astros head down the homestretch, it appears some reinforcements are arriving at the perfect time.
One day after the return of Justin Verlander to the starting rotation, the Astros are adding a top-notch high-leverage relief pitcher.
According to multiple reports, the Astros are signing former Houston reliever Hector Neris.
The Astros are close to a major-league deal with reliever Héctor Neris, source confirms what @AriA1exander first reported. The Cubs DFAd Neris earlier this week. Houston would be on the hook for the prorated league minimum salary.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) August 22, 2024
The timing of this move couldn't be better, with Ryan Pressly on the injured list and Bryan Abreu racking up a massive amount of innings.
Neris was arguably the club's most dominant relief pitcher last season, posting a 1.71 ERA and coming up with some huge outs in the postseason.
Neris also brings leadership to a team that lost Martin Maldonado and Michael Brantley after the 2023 season.
His ability to get left-handed hitters out with his nasty splitter will definitely come in handy down the stretch and hopefully into the playoffs.
Last season, Neris held left-handed batters to a .155 batting average and only allowed one homer to lefties. He was also effective against righties, who only recorded a .187 batting average against him.
If he's so good, why did the Cubs release him?
If Neris had continued pitching for Chicago, he would have hit certain milestones in his contract that would guarantee his salary for next season. So the Cubs decided to put him on waivers and eventually DFA him.
Neris also won't be expected to be the team's closer in Houston. He will provide Joe Espada with another quality option to attack hitters late in games.
And while Kaleb Ort and Tayler Scott have been pleasant surprises this season, 2024 has been an outlier when looking at their career numbers.
Also, Scott has been used a lot this season, and we're seeing some diminishing returns. In his last 8 outings, he's given up at least one run in 4 of them.
What should we expect?
Neris is sporting a 3.89 ERA in 2024, but the biggest concern is his 1.52 WHIP. His WHIP is inflated because of the massive amount of walks he's allowing.
Hector is surrendering over FIVE walks per nine innings this season. A number he's only reached in the COVID-shorted season.
Last year, he walked a little over four batters per nine innings. So he's walking one extra hitter per nine this season. And when we look back at his 2022 numbers with the 'Stros, he was only allowing free passes at a rate of 2.3 per nine innings.
Hopefully, reuniting with the Houston pitching coaches will help him get that walk number down and make him more effective.
Double whammy!
Neris had a lot of interest since his release from the Cubs, so it says a lot that he wanted to return to Houston instead of going to the Yankees, Red Sox, or another contending team. Plus, his signing with the 'Stros not only strengthens them, but also keeps him from making one of Houston's competitors stronger.
It's a win-win for Hector. If he pitches well for the remainder of the season, he'll likely get another nice contract in the offseason either from the Astros or another team.
If Neris pitches up to his potential and Pressly returns healthy and effective, it's hard to imagine a better bullpen than the Astros'.
He also provides an extra arm to go to when Josh Hader, Pressly, or Abreu are unavailable in a must-win situation.
Be sure to watch the video above as we examine the addition of Neris, and discuss how Alex Bregman's arm injury will impact the DH spot in the lineup, and the challenges this will present moving forward.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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