Lance Zierlein
I'm here to fix the red-zone woes for the Texans
Oct 10, 2018, 12:56 pm
The Texans were much better in the red zone in 2017. Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images
Is there anything worse than not being able to finish something that you really want to finish? It’s one of the worst feelings in the world. It’s happened to you before. Just think about it. Let me give some examples and see if any of these sound familiar.
Jumping up to dunk the ball (choose 8 foot goal or 10 foot goal or Nerf goal according to your athletic abilities) and having the rim block your dunk.
Starting a sneeze and then having it abruptly stop.
Having someone at your table say “No thank you, just the check” when the waiter asks if you want dessert.
Being in the middle of passionate moment with your wife and then having your kids bang on the locked door demanding to know what mom is doing and preventing things from… finishing.
Getting hung up in the red zone and settling for field goals (or interceptions, or missed field goals).
Look, I’ve experienced all five of those if I can count the Texans red zone inadequacies as my own source of aggravation for “not finishing”. All of them suck, but probably #4 and #5 suck the hardest.
Texans Gross in the Red Area
There is no way you can hear about how bad the Texans are in the red area and not have some type of joke bubbling up in your head about a rash. However, we are talking about the spot also known as the red zone which is everything from the opponent’s 20-yard line and in.
Last season, Deshaun Watson was incredible in that most important area of the field. That’s the money zone and Watson cashed all the checks last season. Granted, it was a limited sample size, but his rate of 13 passing TDs on just 27 attempts inside the 20-yard line in 2017, was unmatched by any quarterbacks with Wentz coming the closest on touchdowns per percentage of attempts with 24 TDs on 59 attempts.
This season? The Texans are next to last in the NFL scoring a touchdown on just 36% of their trips inside the red zone. That’s it! That’s the equivalent of them falling on the ground before they even get to the basket to try and dunk. That’s like realizing you left your wallet at home in the middle of the meal before they even offer you dessert. That’s like zipping yourself up in your own pants before the romance starts.
Fix-A-Flat
The Texans red zone offense has a big flat tire and it’s time to fix it. So let’s diagnose the problems. Let’s start off with the quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is so good near the goal line because he has an absolute rocket launcher for an arm, so he can fit throws into the tightest of spaces. Watson doesn’t have that same ability, so he can’t just sit and wait for guys to get open.
The Texans need Watson to make pre-snap reads on where he wants to go with the football based upon coverage and matchup. Once he starts doing that, he can begin to target who he wants to throw to before he even snaps the ball which will allow him to throw with much better anticipation. Throwing with anticipation is the key to success in tight quarters.
Secondly, and most importantly, Bill O’Brien absolutely, positively MUST do a better job with not only his play-calling, but his play design near the goal line. Remember that first touchdown where Keke Coutee caught the flip toss on the jet sweep action and scored a touchdown? Yeah, me too. It was awesome. So where did that play or a counter to that play go?
Misdirection, counters, and quick-hitting plays are the way of the world now. Hell, go turn on a Chiefs game and watch how “instant” their goal line offense is. They hit you as quickly as possible before you know who has the ball and where it is headed. Speed headed in all directions keep defenses guessing and on their heels. Let’s see if the Texans can figure this out and stop making Houston such a Factory of Field Goals.
It’s been an excellent weeklong stretch of games for the Astros tempered by the news of yet another season-ending injury to a starting pitcher. To get the bad news out of the way, it comes as no surprise that Ronel Blanco needs Tommy John surgery and is done until at least the middle of next season. While Blanco had not been nearly as good through nine 2025 starts as he was last season, he was still taking his regular return and on average getting into the sixth inning. Blanco turns 32 years old at the end of August. He’s not even salary arbitration-eligible until 2027. That last fact may be good news for him. The Astros will likely keep Blanco next year in hopes he can contribute in the second half of the season, since they will pay him barely the Major League minimum salary ($780,000 next year) That’s in contrast to Jose Urquidy, who in the midst of his salary arbitration years would have cost about three and a half million dollars to keep, so the Astros non-tendered him.
With Blanco joining Hayden Wesneski in the “See you next year! Hopefully.” club, it struck me as interesting that the Astros let Lance McCullers throw 102 pitches in his Wednesday outing vs. the Athletics. That’s eleven more than he had thrown in any of his prior four starts. McCullers holding up physically would be a huge boost, but the two essentials in the Astros’ rotation are Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. Framber has settled in to the tune of a 1.93 earned run average over his last four starts. Brown’s season ERA is 2.00. Brown has had five days of rest before all eleven of his starts this season. This Sunday is Brown’s presently next scheduled outing. He would work on four days of rest if on the mound Sunday against the Rays.
Taking the last two games from the Mariners was huge (for the second half of May anyway). Keeping the good times rolling by sweeping the two-game miniseries from the A’s was less significant but still nice. Maybe not quite nice enough to have Frank “The Tank” from the movie Old School belting out “We’re going streaking!!!” but it did give the Astros their first four game winning streak of the season. They still have not lost more than three straight.
On a heater!
Speaking of streaking, time for annual mention of one of my all-time favorite baseball factoids. The 1916 New York Giants hold the MLB record for the longest win streak with an incredible 26 in a row. Earlier in the season the Giants ripped off 17 in a row. Combine the two streaks and that’s 43-0! The 1916 New York Giants finished in fourth place. In all their other games the Giants went 43-66. The American League’s longest ever winning streak is of fairly recent vintage. The 2007 Cleveland Indians won 22 straight. There have been only two other winning streaks since 1900 of at least 20 games. The 1935 Chicago Cubs won 21 straight. The Art Howe-managed 2002 Oakland A’s won 20 in a row, and were the inspiration for the movie Moneyball. The Astros have three 12 game winning streaks as the longest in their history.
Expect the unexpected
Tuesday’s win over the A’s brought the Astros to the one-third completed point of the regular season. Isaac Paredes was definitely their best offensive player to that milepost. His “on pace for” numbers were the best on the ballclub 33 home runs and 93 runs batted in. Paredes also led in runs scored with 29. The last Astro to lead the team in all three of those categories was Alex Bregman who did it in both 2018 and 2019. That Bregman was clearly a better player than this Paredes, but Isaac healthy and making “only” 6.625 million dollars this season is a heck of a lot better value than Bregman at 40 mil for the Red Sox, especially given that while Bregman was off to a sensational start for Boston, he’s now out for at least a month with a quad injury.
Hunter Brown is on pace to win 20 games. The last Astro to get there was Gerrit Cole on the last day of the 2019 regular season. The day before that Justin Verlander won his 21st game.
The Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen was awesome last season, by far the best in the league with four relievers who each pitched in at least 74 games posting ERAs of 1.92 or lower, headlined by closer Emmanuel Clase’s microscopic 0.61. One-third of the way through this season for the Astros: Bryan Abreu sat at 1.90, Steven Okert 1.82, Josh Hader 1.57, Bryan King 1.52.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
_____________________________________________
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!