Roster Revision
Jermaine Every: Astros tide is turning...for the better
Mar 6, 2018, 8:03 am
The Astros have a great shot to win it again this year because of their roster management. mlb.com/Astros
Houston Astros manager A.J. Hinch announced that Justin Verlander, not Dallas Keuchel, will be the Opening Day starter. Keuchel had started the previous three Opening Days for the Astros, all three were wins. Keuchel debuted with the team in 2012 and has been around for the lowest lows and the highest high of winning the World Series last season. The fact that Hinch decided to go with Verlander instead of Keuchel is a sign of a turning tide for the Astros, and I don’t care about who’s feelings were hurt because of it.
Typically when a team wins a World Series, it’s done a couple of ways. One way is the New York Yankees model. This is when the team “buys” a trophy by spending obscene amounts of money on free agents to field the best team the owner’s checkbook will allow. Given the loose salary cap structure in MLB, teams can spend as much as they want with little to no penalty. Losing draft picks by signing high dollar free agents can decimate a team’s farm system, but who cares when you can write a check and replenish your talent?
The other way to build a winner is through homegrown talent. Drafting and developing your own talent, then bringing them up from the minors while they’re still young, cheap, and under team control is another method. The Kansas City Royals won in 2015 with this formula. Now that some of those guys are up for new deals, they aren’t able to resign them out of fear of a growing payroll the likes of which smaller market teams can’t handle.
The other method is a blend of the two previous methods mentioned. The Astros have effectively employed a combo of homegrown talent, and wise free agent buys in their recent success. Trading for Verlander and Gerrit Cole, signing Charlie Morton and Josh Reddick, as well as bringing up homegrown guys like Keuchel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer helped this team win a World Series last season.
General Manager Jeff Luhnow brings a whole new meaning to roster flexibility. He’s managed to make the right moves to build a contender, all the while ensuring that the team is set up to contend for a number of years to come. The Verlander and Cole deals didn’t empty the minor league system of top talent. The free agent signings haven’t taken away draft picks. The homegrown talent is coming up for new deals, but the years are staggered and the minor leagues are filled with replacements. Luhnow has maintained roster flexibility which has allowed the team to contend for years to come.
Perhaps this is the sign of a turning tide. Teams that “buy” a World Series end up further behind the curve because their stars age under fat contracts they can’t trade away. Other teams that build a contender from within usually can’t afford to keep them together and either trade away their stars or lose them without compensation. The Astros are in a unique position to keep the train rolling. The San Francisco Giants of the early 2010s were the last team to effectively employ this strategy when they won titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014. They’ve since hit a rough patch, but no one can take away their three titles. The Yankees of the late 90s/early00s had a similar strategy until they turned to throwing money at their problems.
I truly hope this team can use good roster management to ride the wave of success for at least a few more years to come. This city got its first taste of a championship winner in over twenty years. After going through Harvey, it was a much-needed respite. I really don’t give a damn about how it’s done, who gets traded, who gets resigned, or who gets let go. Enjoying sustained success has a cost. I’d rather pay it than wallow in the purgatory of mediocrity.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
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