Kyle Tucker should be in an Astros uniform now. Rich Schultz
When the Astros broke spring training a buddy asked me why they didn’t bring Kyle Tucker up with the big league team. I assured him that they didn’t need him. He could get at bats at the minor league level and they wouldn’t have to start his major league clock. They were good enough to win without him. Maybe they’re not. Maybe they need their best players to win.
Don’t get me wrong. I like Jake Marisnick. I know his teammates like him. I know all the women in Houston and beyond like him. He’s a handsome man. If the Astros were in the modeling business he’d be their MVP. But they’re not in the modeling business. They’re in the baseball business and he’s not good at that.
I don’t want Jake to lose his job. I never want that to happen to anyone. I want him to have a job somewhere. I just don’t want him striking out for the Astros anymore. After Tuesday’s game he had gone 0 for his last 16 with 11 strikeouts. That’s not good.
It’s not just Jake though. Anyone who plays left field for the Astros automatically forgets how to hit. Only Detroit’s left fielders have been more futile this season. Astros left fielders are hitting .152 with an OPS hovering at .500. They’ve collected 9 hits all season and just 7 RBI while striking out 21 times. These are all terrible numbers. Terrible.
It’s not in the Astros nature to panic but is it panicking to make a move that could bolster the offense? Let’s face it, Jake Marisnick is who he is. He hit for power last year but that was all.
The other option is Derek Fisher. He’s started a few games but A.J. Hinch doesn’t have much confidence in him and why would he? He is basically a pinch runner. If the rest of the guys were hitting like they did last year you would have the luxury of carrying a pinch runner and a defensive outfielder. So far this year you don’t. After Wednesday night’s game he was down to .125 with an OPS of .421, That’s really really bad.
This season the Astros are looking a little like they did in 2015 when they made the playoffs as a wild card. Here are the averages from 2015 and 2018.
2015 Astros averages: 2018 Astros averages:
Jose Altuve .313 Jose Altuve .314
Carlos Correa .279 Carlos Correa .288
Marwin Gonzalez .279 Josh Reddick .273
George Springer .276 Yuli Gurriel .250
Evan Gattis .246 Alex Bregman .214
Colby Rasmus .238 Evan Gattis .212
Jake Marisnick .236 George Springer .211
Luis Valbuena .224 Marwin Gonzalez .164
Jason Castro .211 Derek Fisher .143
Chris Carter .199 Jake Marisnick .133
The thing that stuck out that year was the falloff from the top four hitters to the rest of the lineup. That’s playing out again. What made it palatable was that they made up for the lack of offensive consistency with power.
The 2015 version had a .437 slugging percentage with 230 home runs.
Before Wednesday night’s game the 2018 version was slugging .363 and was on pace to hit 144 home runs. That’s bad. No one expects them to duplicate last year’s performance but that’s a drastic fall off from 2017’s .478 slugging and 238 home runs.
It’s early and they’ve shown a glimmer of hope lately in Seattle but some things will never change, Marisnick and Fisher being able to hit at the Major League level being one of them.
Which means it’s Tucker time. Kyle’s fourth year arbitration clock has already struck. If you’re not on the 40-man yet you don’t have to wait until June to be called up and get that extra year of service. I guess the thought being that if you’re that good why make the kid and the team wait? It’s how the Cubs brought up Kris Bryant so early and still held his rights for that extra year. It paid off big time for them.
That move was obvious. The Cubs wanted desperately to get that World Series monkey off their back. The Astros are not that desperate. They’ve already exorcised that demon but all I heard this offseason was #Neversettle. Well it’s time to not settle for this beyond hopeless offensive output in left field.
While they have already won their World Series title this team has the potential to do so much more. The bullpen is a mess but the rotation is the best in baseball and the Verlander, Keuchel, Morton and Cole clocks are ticking. Keuchel and Morton are unrestricted free agents after this season and you’ve only got Cole and Verlander for sure for one year after this.
The time to win is now. You bring home consecutive titles and you’re in elite territory. No one has won back to back World Series this century. That’s saying something.
Does Kyle Tucker assure that? No but he can’t be any worse than what’s happening now. Who knows? He may be this year’s Cody Bellinger, another guy who came up late last year and got that Super 2 status. Think he made a difference for the Dodgers?
The Astros have historically been a team that was hesitant to bring up young players early. Ask George Springer about that. But that was a different team. They weren’t going to win anything so why start his Major League clock? That made sense. Keeping Tucker down doesn’t.
He is not ripping the cover off the ball in Fresno (he’s hitting .235 but his OPS is over .700 and he’s showing he’s got a disciplined eye at the plate with 9 walks in 60 plate appearances) but none of that matters anyway. He showed he can hit in the spring and he might be like that good college football team that doesn’t make the playoffs and has to go to a lesser bowl game. Sometimes there’s a natural letdown if you feel like you should be playing somewhere else.
Who knows why? They know he can hit. They know he’s their top hitting prospect and they need hitting in left field.
It would open up a lot if they solidified that position. Marwin could roam all over the field giving guys days off and still get his at-bats.
It makes too much sense. Tucker time is now.
#Neversettle
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The Astros have already been swept in four series this season. They were swept in four series all of last season. As Mexico City says bienvenidos to the Astros this weekend, there are certainly more than a few folks fretting that the Astros are already close to saying adios to playoff hopes. The Astros are not at the point of no return, though one can see it out there on the horizon. It wouldn’t take another month of their garbage level 7-19 performance for the season to be essentially down the drain.
If the Astros were in the American League East, they’d already be ten games out of second place. But they’re not! If in the AL Central they’d be eleven and a half games back of Cleveland. But they’re not! Dozens of teams have rebounded to win divisions from larger deficits much later in the season than the Astros face presently. The Seattle Mariners lead the thus far weak AL West at 13-12. The Astros being six and a half games in arrears of the M’s and six back of the Texas Rangers in late April is far from optimal but nowhere near devastating.
Multiple media outlets have noted how few teams historically have started a season in as stumblebum a fashion as the 2024 Astros and wound up making the playoffs. What every outlet I have seen noting that failed to include: this is just the third season since Major League Baseball added a third Wild Card to each league’s postseason field. So, while 7-19 out of the gate is indisputably awful, it is not the death knell to the extent it has been over generations of MLB.
The issue isn’t where the Astros sit in the standings, it’s that they have played atrocious baseball and aren’t providing reason for optimism that a stark turnaround is imminent. The starting rotation is the best hope. Justin Verlander has made two starts. Framber Valdez rejoins the rotation Sunday. Cristian Javier should be a week or so away. Obviously, Ronel Blanco isn’t going to continue pitching as well as he has through his first four starts. But if he is a good number four starter, that’s fine if the top three coming into the season pitch to reasonably hoped for form.
Hunter Brown simply is not a good big league pitcher. Maybe he someday fulfills his potential, but the data at this point are clear. What can Brown do for you? Not much. Spencer Arrighetti needs better command to be a good big league starter. J.P. France was a revelation over his first 17 starts last season, but since has looked like the guy who posted underwhelming numbers when in the minor leagues. If the Astros wind up with 50-plus starts from Brown/Arrighetti/France their goose will probably be cooked.
The only MLB teams with worse staff earned run averages than the Astros’ horrific 5.07 are the Chicago White Sox (Wait! They have Martin Maldonado!) and Colorado Rockies. At 3-22 the White Sox are on an early pace to post the worst record in the history of Major League Baseball. The Rockies never have a chance to post good pitching stats because of the mile high offensive freak show environment in Denver.
Way to go, Joe
Props to Joe Espada for his conviction in making what he believed to be the right call in pulling Verlander after four and a third innings Thursday at Wrigley Field. Verlander allowed no runs but had reached 95 pitches in just the second outing of the injury-delayed start to his season. Not easy for a rookie manager skippering what has been a Titanic journey thus far to pull a surefire Hall of Famer who was two outs away from qualifying for a win. Many were no doubt poised to destroy Espada had Rafael Montero given up the lead in the fifth. Verlander was angry at being pulled from any chance at his 259th career win. Understood, but the manager’s job is to make the decisions he thinks are in the ballclub’s overall best interest. That Montero and Bryan Abreu combined to blow the lead in the sixth is immaterial.
Then there's the offense…
Six runs total the last four games. Scored more than four runs in just one of the last nine games. Timely hitting largely non-existent.
At last check Alex Bregman still hawks that “Breggy Bomb” salsa. At the plate, he’s been mostly stuck in “Breggy Bum” mode, including zero bombs (home runs). 23 games played without a homer is Bregman’s longest drought since 2017 when he had separate 35 and 27 game stretches between dingers. Bregman has a history of slow first months of the season, but never anything as inept as he’s posted thus far. A litany of lazy fly balls, infield pops, and routine grounders add up to a .216 batting average and feeble .566 OPS. Reference point: Martin Maldonado’s worst OPS season with the Astros was .573. If Bregman was a young guy handed a starting job coming out of spring training, if a viable alternative were available, there’s a chance he’d be a Sugar Land Space Cowboy right now. Bregman’s track record makes it a decent bet that he winds up with decent numbers, but nothing special. Certainly nothing remotely worth the 10 years 300 million dollars or whatever Bregman and agent Scott Boras intend(ed) to seek on the free agent market this coming offseason. Two hits Thursday did get Bregman to the 1000 hit plateau for his career.
Despite arriving south of the border with his batting average at .346, even Jose Altuve has his warts. With runners in scoring position, Altuve has one hit this season. One. In 16 at bats. Small sample size, but it counts. That’s .063. Yordan Alvarez has been no great shakes either, five for 24 (.208) with RISP.
One wonders what would happen if the Astros got a hold of and “lost” Jose Abreu’s passport/visa this weekend in Mexico City and Abreu couldn’t get back into the U.S. after the two-game set with the Rockies.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.