TABLE TALK

John Granato: Comparing Houston's sports teams and stars to poker chip stacks

John Granato: Comparing Houston's sports teams and stars to poker chip stacks
Yes, Jose Altuve started with...you guessed it, a short stack. But he is doing just fine now. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

On Wednesday’s show I accidently (or not so accidently) called the Skeeters the first half champions and second half chip leaders. Lance started naming our town’s sports chip leaders. I thought I might break that down a little further by category.

The Team Poker Tournament

The Astros are far and away our chip leaders. They won a bracelet last year and their good fortune has continued this year. They always seem to have an ace in their hand and come up with clutch flops all the time. They’ve had some bumps in the road. They’re shaky on the river. You never know if they can hold on even when they’ve got a big lead in a hand but even with some misplays that they would like to punch themselves in the face over, they are still clearly the team to beat.

The Rockets have a nice stack as well. They won two bracelets in the 90’s and after a long dry spell they looked like they’d win their third in dominant fashion last year. They made it to the final table and were chip leaders with just one team to beat but they couldn’t close them out. It all fell apart when they got their aces cracked. That hurt badly. After that they misfired on 27 straight pots. Instead of playing more conservatively with the lead they just kept firing away until their stack disappeared and they were left wondering if they could ever win it again.

The Texans are one of the short stacks at the table yet still one of the most popular players. They’re Phil Ivey. Everyone loves to watch them and they get all kinds of attention but they rarely ever win. They have bursts when they go on the offensive and come up with huge hands but they find a way to screw up the betting and come away with small pots. To compound the situation they broke their right hand. After that every bet looked awkward. They tried to bluff with weak hands and no one believed them leaving them with practically nothing. The hand looks like it’s healing though and when it does they could be dangerous, maybe even win a bracelet someday.

The Dynamo are also short stacked. They’ve won bracelets in five stud but look outclassed at this table. Seems like they’ve never been able to compete with the big boys here. Still they have a small but loyal chip stack that never seems to leave them. They could gain some confidence with a lot of people watching the World Cup of Poker this summer. It will always be an uphill battle though. They’d be much better off on the European or South American Poker Tours but they like it here and will continue to compete at the highest level.

The Skeeters clearly don’t belong at this table but they have a chip and a chair and that’s all they want. They are content with a seat at the table and will fight for any small pot they can win. They are by far the scrappiest team at the table. They’ve garnered a lot of respect from the other players even though they don’t have the firepower to compete for bigger pots. They’re not going away anytime soon.

The MVP table

Alex Bregman is this year’s chip leader. He’s burst onto the poker scene and in just a few short years has proven to be the most clutch player in the game. He continues to win big pot after big pot with huge unbelievable cards on the river. He doesn’t have a bracelet yet but he’s the best bet to be our next bracelet winner. The players all love him. He’s a trash talker and isn’t afraid to celebrate wins. He’s gotten into some scraps with fans on the rail talking trash but no one seems to care as long as he keeps coming up clutch he’s going to be the fan favorite.

Jose Altuve is next with a bunch of chips still in play from last year’s bracelet winning performance. He started with the shortest stack in the field. No one thought he could even get into the game but here he is with a win last year and a big stack again this year.

James Harden has the next biggest stack. He won a bracelet last year as well but his struggles on the river continue. Two years ago he folded with the best hand in a big tournament in San Antonio but he bounced back nicely from it thanks to some tips from his buddy Chris Paul. Chris left him though and James reverted back to his old ways in his last tourney and lost a tough one by misplaying his hand late after building a big chip lead. If he figures out how to play the river he’ll be a champion one day.

Justin Verlander is still up there with the best players. He’s the new guy at the table but he’s certainly not new to the game. He came over from the Detroit Poker Tour where he was by far their best player. Everyone loves what he brought to the table. He’s made everyone around him better.  

JJ Watt with his 3 bracelets is still up there among the chip leaders despite not playing a hand in what seems like years. He’s the Doyle Brunson of this group. He’s larger than life. The fans love him but his best days are behind him. Yet here he is with a bunch of chips and the biggest rooting section on the rail.

Deshaun Watson is the biggest wildcard in this field. He hasn’t been playing long but he built up a huge stack with some big hands and then nothing. As an amateur he showed that he can play with anyone finishing runner-up and then winning the college tournament. If he can stay in more hands he is almost certain to be one of the best players in the field but he’s got to prove he can do it over the long haul.

Carlos Correa has been bleeding chips lately. As a younger player he was thought to be the next sure thing but maybe expectations were too high for him. He has unbelievable talent but he sits out way too many hands. You can’t win if you keep folding and Carlos has been folding a bunch. Needs to get back in the game and show what he can do.

George Springer is coming off his first World Series bracelet winning performance but it hasn’t been going well for him lately. He’s taken some big swings at huge pots but come up empty. He can’t keep whiffing on them if he’s going to win another bracelet. The question is how much longer he’ll be at the table. Will he outlast Altuve, Correa and Bregman? There aren’t enough chips for all of them. Who’s the odd man out? We’ll soon see.

Dallas Keuchel is clearly the short stack at the table. He won a bracelet in 2015 but those days are long behind him. He’s been playing better of late but dug himself a huge hole. His problem is he doesn’t play fast enough. The other guys are catching up to his moves and stealing pots from him. He’s slow and steady though and making some nice plays lately. Don’t count him out now but this just may be his last tournament here. Odds are he’s moving on and playing in another game next year.  

 

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We've been waiting for this! Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

The NFL Draft, NBA playoffs, and NHL playoffs all dwarf baseball in the sports pecking order this week, but that doesn’t detract from the Astros playing their best stretch of baseball in the still young season. Following up taking two of three from the previously sizzling hot Padres by sweeping the Blue Jays three straight has the Astros’ record at a just fine 13-11 as they open a three-game weekend series in Kansas City. 13-11 may not sound special, because it isn’t, but having come home from St. Louis last week with the record at 8-10 makes 13-11 a quality leap. Plus, a 13-11 pace over 162 games extrapolates to 87 wins, which last season were enough to win the American League West and for an AL Wild Card spot.

Batter up!

While no one will be confusing the potency of this Astros’ lineup with those of the 2017 or 2019 juggernauts, some welcome perking up may have kicked in, despite Yordan Alvarez still not getting rolling. After Joe Espada gave Christian Walker a “mental rest” game off Monday, Walker produced a three-hit game Tuesday and a two-hit follow-up Wednesday, including a home run. Walker’s .202 batting average and .640 OPS are still lousy, but a much lesser grade of lousy than the statistical abyss he was in starting the Toronto series. Yainer Diaz has been much worse than Walker to this point. Diaz managed at least one hit in all three games of the Jays series. Baby steps. He is still sitting on an unacceptable three walks in 78 plate appearances.

Speaking of hits and walks, Jeremy Pena carries a 14-game hitting streak into the weekend. One-quarter of the way to Joe DiMaggio’s big league record! Willy Taveras set the Astros’ record with a 30-gamer back in 2006. Pena hasn’t been crushing it during the streak, during which he has just two multi-hit games. He’s had stretches where he has hit better and slugged harder (2022 postseason anyone?), but while too small a stretch to declare a leap has been made, it is noteworthy that over the 14 games Pena has drawn six walks. That gives him eight free passes in 24 games this season. More math fun! That’s one walk drawn per three games, which over 162 games would make for 54. Last season in 157 games played Pena drew a paltry 25 walks. Add in that his defense has been superb so far this season with a number of fabulous plays made and just one error committed, and Pena could be making modest offensive improvement that makes him a meaningfully better player.

Furthermore speaking of hits and walks, it’s been a struggle on both fronts the last couple of weeks for Jose Altuve. A two-week funk does not represent a crisis, but there are troubling trends that bear watching as Altuve sets to turn 35 years old May 6. Over his last 14 games, Altuve’s OPS is a sub-Maldonadian .547. In this stretch he has two doubles as his lone extra base hits and drawn just two walks. Altuve has struck out 22 times in 24 games. Setting aside the short 2020 COVID season when Altuve never got it going, last year he had the worst strikeout percentage of his career, while his walk rate was his worst since 2015. So far this season, Altuve’s strikeout rate is more than 20 percent worse than last year’s, with his walk rate down 30 percent from 2024. He is hitting line drives at a much lower rate than ever before, and struggling to get the ball in the air. The season still isn’t 20 percent old, but since Altuve last season finished with his lowest OPS (.790, again, exempting 2020) since 2013, and his current .728 OPS is 62 points lower than that, the antennae of at least mild concern are up. This is the first season of Altuve’s five-year 125 million dollar contract extension. Remember, the Astros would not offer Kyle Tucker a contract that took him to age 35.

Bringing the heat!

Hunter Brown makes his next start Sunday in Kansas City. Good luck Royals! Until getting a doubleheader against the pathetic Rockies Thursday, K.C. was averaging under three runs per game. Brown's earned run average through five starts is 1.16! It's waaaaay early to focus on this, but the best season ERA for an Astro pitcher who qualified for the statistical lead (one inning pitched per team game played) belongs to Nolan Ryan who posted a 1.69 in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Over a full-schedule season, Justin Verlander's 1.75 in 2022 is the standard. Brown has fired 24 consecutive shutout innings. Ryan Pressly holds the Astros’ record with 38 consecutive scoreless innings pitched. Orel Hershiser set the Major League record by finishing the 1988 regular season with a ridiculous 59 straight shutout innings. Yes he won the National League Cy Young Award. The Cy Young is strictly a regular season award. Hershiser in 1988 also won the League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award, and World Series MVP.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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