ON SECOND THOUGHT

How results from Astros-Altuve negotiations spark an entirely new perspective

Astros Jim Crane, Jose Altuve, Dana Brown
Jose Altuve wasn't going anywhere. Composite Getty Image.

Jose Altuve signing a 5-year, $125 million contract that ensures he will be an Astro for life was a done deal, a fait accompli for you French majors, before ink hit paper.

Altuve, now undeniably the greatest Astro of all time, wanted to stay in Houston, and the Astros desperately needed to keep him here.

It made me wonder why Altuve hired Scott Boras as his agent. Boras is famous for taking his clients to free agency and squeezing every nickel and dime out of the team that signs his players. Altuve telling Boras to get a deal done with the Astros, and get it done before the 2024 season starts, must have driven Boras crazy. You can imagine Boras pleading with Altuve, “c’mon, let me make the Astros squirm. Let’s make them beg. This is what I do for fun.”

Hiring Boras, when Altuve had no desire to play anywhere else and money wasn’t the main issue, was like calling the bomb squad because the kid across the street is playing with matches.

If the Astros had kept Altuve hanging without a contract this season, or lowballed him, or, heaven forbid, tried to trade him, the Astros fan base, heck the entire city of Houston, would have turned owner Jim Crane into Public Enemy No. 1.

Altuve’s press conference and contract signing was such a renewal of vows between player and team that I expected to hear Michael Buble singing as the happy couple left the room.

This is how crazy sports economics have become: a 33-year-old player, coming off an injury-riddled season, whose stats are in decline, signs a contract for $125 million that will end when he’s 40, and it’s considered a “hometown discount.”

What would have happened if Boras told the Astros, “We’ll do the 5-year deal, but we want $130 million?”

Or $135 million? Or $140 million?

The Astros would have paid up. This wasn’t like two years ago when the Astros went to arbitration war over $2.5 million with budding superstar Kyle Tucker. The Astros won, got Tucker on the cheap that year. Tucker made no bones about feeling underpaid and unappreciated. It’s something that I’m guessing Tucker will throw back in the Astros faces when he approaches free agency after the 2025 season.

Of course it’s possible (likely) that the Astros will play rough with Tucker, and make only a half-hearted effort to keep him, like they did with George Springer, Justin Verlander, Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole and other ghosts of Astros past. So far the Astros have successfully endured the departures. But at some point, like Jenga, lose one more piece and the Astros dynasty crumbles.

That piece never was going to be Altuve. The pint-sized second baseman held all the marbles against the Astros. Altuve isn’t just a great player – you can make a case he’s one of the greatest second basemen in baseball history – he is a bona fide hero in Houston. Fans don’t just cheer for Altuve, they adore him. Parents look at Altuve as a role model for their children. Little Leaguers can identify with Altuve because they’re little, too. How can you not love a superstar who says he gets up in the morning after night games and drives his daughters to school?

If the Astros had let Altuve slip through their fingers, they would have lost a generation of fans. They probably would lose a lot more games, too, especially this season when the American League West appears to be a horse race between the Astros, Rangers and Mariners. The Astros simply couldn’t afford to blow a deal with Altuve.

Now before we order Jose Altuve ornaments to put on top of our Christmas trees, it’s not like he took a vow of poverty to stay in Houston. Two years ago, crooks broke into his home and stole $1 million in jewelry. That’s not cubic zirconia from the Home Shopping Channel.

By the time this contract extension expires, Altuve will have earned more than $300 million over his career – the highest-paid second baseman in history.

And worth every damn penny.

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Gerrit Cole and Hunter Brown share the same agent now. Composite Getty Image.

There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.

Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.

The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.

But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.

The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.

Astros pitcher hires a new agent

Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.

But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.

With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.

However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.

Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).

Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.

I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.

There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?

Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.

If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.

One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.

Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.

It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.

The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.

Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?

After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.

And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.

So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.

Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.

Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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