ON SECOND THOUGHT
How results from Astros-Altuve negotiations spark an entirely new perspective
Feb 8, 2024, 1:18 pm
Jose Altuve wasn't going anywhere. Composite Getty Image.
Jose Altuve signing a 5-year, $125 million contract that ensures he will be an Astro for life was a done deal, a fait accompli for you French majors, before ink hit paper.
Altuve, now undeniably the greatest Astro of all time, wanted to stay in Houston, and the Astros desperately needed to keep him here.
It made me wonder why Altuve hired Scott Boras as his agent. Boras is famous for taking his clients to free agency and squeezing every nickel and dime out of the team that signs his players. Altuve telling Boras to get a deal done with the Astros, and get it done before the 2024 season starts, must have driven Boras crazy. You can imagine Boras pleading with Altuve, “c’mon, let me make the Astros squirm. Let’s make them beg. This is what I do for fun.”
Hiring Boras, when Altuve had no desire to play anywhere else and money wasn’t the main issue, was like calling the bomb squad because the kid across the street is playing with matches.
If the Astros had kept Altuve hanging without a contract this season, or lowballed him, or, heaven forbid, tried to trade him, the Astros fan base, heck the entire city of Houston, would have turned owner Jim Crane into Public Enemy No. 1.
Altuve’s press conference and contract signing was such a renewal of vows between player and team that I expected to hear Michael Buble singing as the happy couple left the room.
This is how crazy sports economics have become: a 33-year-old player, coming off an injury-riddled season, whose stats are in decline, signs a contract for $125 million that will end when he’s 40, and it’s considered a “hometown discount.”
What would have happened if Boras told the Astros, “We’ll do the 5-year deal, but we want $130 million?”
Or $135 million? Or $140 million?
The Astros would have paid up. This wasn’t like two years ago when the Astros went to arbitration war over $2.5 million with budding superstar Kyle Tucker. The Astros won, got Tucker on the cheap that year. Tucker made no bones about feeling underpaid and unappreciated. It’s something that I’m guessing Tucker will throw back in the Astros faces when he approaches free agency after the 2025 season.
Of course it’s possible (likely) that the Astros will play rough with Tucker, and make only a half-hearted effort to keep him, like they did with George Springer, Justin Verlander, Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole and other ghosts of Astros past. So far the Astros have successfully endured the departures. But at some point, like Jenga, lose one more piece and the Astros dynasty crumbles.
That piece never was going to be Altuve. The pint-sized second baseman held all the marbles against the Astros. Altuve isn’t just a great player – you can make a case he’s one of the greatest second basemen in baseball history – he is a bona fide hero in Houston. Fans don’t just cheer for Altuve, they adore him. Parents look at Altuve as a role model for their children. Little Leaguers can identify with Altuve because they’re little, too. How can you not love a superstar who says he gets up in the morning after night games and drives his daughters to school?
If the Astros had let Altuve slip through their fingers, they would have lost a generation of fans. They probably would lose a lot more games, too, especially this season when the American League West appears to be a horse race between the Astros, Rangers and Mariners. The Astros simply couldn’t afford to blow a deal with Altuve.
Now before we order Jose Altuve ornaments to put on top of our Christmas trees, it’s not like he took a vow of poverty to stay in Houston. Two years ago, crooks broke into his home and stole $1 million in jewelry. That’s not cubic zirconia from the Home Shopping Channel.
By the time this contract extension expires, Altuve will have earned more than $300 million over his career – the highest-paid second baseman in history.
And worth every damn penny.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.