AND THE HOUSTON TEXANS SELECT...

Josh Jordan's mock draft 4.0: The Oliver twist

Josh Jordan's mock draft 4.0: The Oliver twist
Photo via: University of Houston football/Facebook

Okay, so I'm not going to try to predict all the possible trades that may go down. My mock draft is more about showing where I anticipate players to be selected, which positions teams are looking to fill, and what the player's perceived value is. There were seven trades on the first day of the draft last year, and it won't surprise me if it happens again.

This mock draft is mostly about the Texans and I think the majority of the early trades in the 1st round for QBs, won't impact the Texans all that much. I will say, the more QBs that go in the 1st round, the better for the Texans. If 4 QBs get taken before the Texans pick at No. 23, that means Houston gets a Top 20 non-QB prospect. Texans fans have to love that.

Let's take a look at how the draft board might stack up.

1. Arizona Cardinals- Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

There are some rumblings that Murray may not be the pick, but if the Cardinals don't trade out, I think they draft Murray.

2. San Francisco 49ers- Ohio State DE Nick Bosa

The 49ers take the best player on the board despite trading for Dee Ford.

3. New York Jets- Kentucky Edge Josh Allen

The Jets need somebody that can pressure the QB. Allen is that somebody.

4. Oakland Raiders- Alabama DL Quinnen Williams

This pick could also be Ed Oliver, he's shooting up draft boards. But I'm still gonna predict they take Williams.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Houston DL Ed Oliver

I'm buying into the hype. I had Oliver going No. 12 to the Packers in my last mock, but this time I think he goes Top 5 and Top 3 would not shock me. One way to improve the Bucs' secondary is to get more pressure on the QB. Oliver can do that and then some. I'm hearing the Bucs may trade out of this spot, so that is something to look out for.

6. New York Giants- Michigan DE Rashan Gary

I had the Giants taking a QB in this spot in my last mock, but Gary was already off the board. The Giants also have another pick in the 1st round, so they can address QB there if need be. There is some concern over Gary's shoulder, so if he falls on Thursday night, that's probably the reason.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars- Florida OT Jawaan Taylor

Nothing changes here. The Jags take Taylor to pair with Cam Robinson at tackle. As long as Robinson recovers from his ACL injury, they should be set at tackle for years to come.

8. Detriot Lions- Mississippi State DE Montez Sweat

Matt Patricia is all about defense, and they have to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Trubisky and Cousins aren't too shabby either. This could change if teams are concerned about Sweat's heart condition.

9. Buffalo Bills- Washington State OT Andre Dillard

The Bills offensive line is awful. Time to add a tackle and protect Josh Allen. Being able to run the ball in December is a must in Buffalo. Dillard can help with that.

10. Denver Broncos- LSU LB Devin White

The Broncos had an elite defense the last time they won a Super Bowl. Devin White will make an immediate impact and I think the Broncos roll with Flacco this year and wait on QB.

11. Cincinnati Bengals- Missouri QB Drew Lock

Time to move on from Andy Dalton and get a QB will some serious arm talent.

12. Green Bay Packers- Alabama OL Jonah Williams

Great value and he protects Rodgers who has been injured quite a bit the last couple of years.

13. Miami Dolphins- Clemson DL Christian Wilkins

The Dolphins are rebuilding and Wilkins is a nice piece for their d-line.

14. Atlanta Falcons- Oklahoma OT Cody Ford

This may be a little early for Ford, but a big tackle makes sense.

15. Washington Redskins- Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins

The Redskins need a QB and if Haskins falls, they should grab him.

16. Carolina Panthers- Clemson Edge Clelin Ferrell

The Panthers need a pass rush with Peppers retiring.

17. New York Giants- Duke QB Daniel Jones

It looks like the Giants will pass on Haskins at No. 6, and Daniel Jones already has a relationship with Eli and will be the QB in waiting for New York.

18. Minnesota Vikings- NC State C Garrett Bradbury

Vikings really need help on the o-line and Bradbury can step right in and make an impact.

19. Tennessee Titans- Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson is a steal at No. 19 and Delanie Walker is 100 years old and coming off an injury.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers- Michigan LB Devin Bush

The Steelers will have a party in the draft room if they get Bush at No. 20. Bush can replace Ryan Shazier in the middle of the Pittsburgh defense.

21. Seattle Seahawks- Florida State Edge Brian Burns

Seattle can address receiver later in the first round after trading with the Chiefs.

22. Baltimore Ravens- Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf

I'm sure the Ravens would like to take a pass rusher here, but they also need receiver help desperately.

23. Houston Texans- Greedy Williams

Photo via: LSU Football/Facebook

I know it seems crazy that Williams would fall this far, and the questions about his football character don't exactly scream Texans worthy, but they need a starting corner, and he has the physical traits GM Brian Gaine desires. SPEED! Plus, LSU is known for having great DB play. The Texans say they want to get faster and Williams running a 4.37 forty certainly qualifies as fast.

Ideally I would like to put a tackle here, but that would mean reaching for Ole Miss OT Greg Little or Kansas State OT Dalton Risner. I'm cool with them taking either one of those guys, but Brian Gaine seems to be a GM that takes the best player available. We saw that when he took safety Justin Reid last year.

Oklahoma's Cody Ford would be a good pick, but I have the Falcons taking him earlier in the first round. Don't rule out the Texans trading back and picking up some extra picks. Drafting one of these tackles in the late first or early second round, and picking up extra picks, would be a nice way of navigating the draft.

24. Oakland Raiders (via Bears)- Iowa TE Noah Fant

The Raiders replace Jared Cook.

25. Philadelphia Eagles- Washington CB Byron Murphy

The Eagles have to fix the secondary.

26. Indianapolis Colts- Mississippi State S Johnathan Abram

Chris Ballard can hold tight and improve the safety position.

27. Oakland Raiders (via Cowboys)- Alabama RB Josh Jacobs

Great value pick for Mike Mayock.

28. Los Angeles Chargers- Clemson DL Dexter Lawrence

Great pick for the Chargers.

29. Seattle Seahawks via (Kansas City Chiefs)- Oklahoma WR Marquise Brown

Doug Baldwin is getting older and always hurt.

30. Green Bay Packers (via Saints)- Mississippi State DL Jeffery Simmons

Watch out when he's healthy.

31. Los Angeles Rams- Notre Dame DL Jerry Tillery

The Rams continue to be strong on the d-line.

32. New England Patriots- Alabama TE Irv Smith Jr.

Gronk's gone, so the Pats get a brand-new TE.

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The Coogs square off with Duke on Saturday. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.

The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.

There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.

College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.

“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”

And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.

KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.

In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.

Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.

That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.

“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”

Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.

Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).

Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.

Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.

“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”

Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.

Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.

The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.

This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.

“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”

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