CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS
How efficiency metrics tell a very interesting story about Cougars, Final Four teams
Mar 31, 2025, 1:22 pm
CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS
The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.
The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.
There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.
College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.
“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”
And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.
KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.
In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.
Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.
That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.
“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”
Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.
Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).
Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.
Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.
“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”
Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.
Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.
The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.
This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.
“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”
The Astros’ latest showdown with the Yankees was more than another chapter in baseball’s best modern rivalry, it was a measuring stick for where Houston stands heading into the stretch run.
At the plate, it’s hard to ask for much more from Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Correa hasn’t just been good since rejoining the team, he’s been absurd, hitting over .400 with an OPS pushing 1.100. Altuve keeps stacking milestone moments, and Christian Walker’s bat has been a steady force as well. The collective numbers tell a similar story: since the trade deadline, Houston ranks eighth in OPS and fifth in batting average. And yet, the run total still sits right where it’s been most of the year, squarely in the middle of the pack at 16th. The pieces are there, but the offense hasn’t fully exploded.
The more pressing concern, though, is on the mound. What was an elite pitching staff for most of the season has been much more ordinary lately — 13th in ERA and 15th in WHIP over the past month, with similar August rankings. Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Spencer Arrighetti are still working their way back to full strength, and until they do, the bullpen is carrying more innings than Joe Espada would like. That’s a dangerous formula when one of your key arms, in this case Javier, is coming back with control issues. In three rehab starts for Sugar Land, he walked 10 batters in just 9.2 innings, so don’t expect him to go much beyond 3–4 innings in his first start back Monday night against Boston. (I hope I'm wrong).
Complicating matters: the Mariners aren’t just lurking, they’re surging. Seven straight wins, nine of their last ten, and now only a half-game back of Houston. This AL West race has all the makings of a sprint to the finish, and the final series between the two teams could decide it.
If the Astros do hang on, Joe Espada should get plenty of credit, maybe even Manager of the Year. He’s managed through a roster crunch that once saw 18 players on the injured list, navigated the post-Alex Bregman and post-Kyle Tucker transition, and still found ways to develop young talent like Cam Smith. That’s a rare balancing act in any season, let alone one with this much turbulence. Oh yeah, he's also missing that Yordan Alvarez guy for most of the season.
Monday night fireworks!
Javier and Bregman returning is big, but seeing Correa back in Astros colors might be the real showstopper. In orange and blue, he looks like he never left—and maybe even more dangerous than before. Jim Crane’s bold deadline push has only added to the firepower, and no one might benefit more than Jose Altuve.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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