CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS

How efficiency metrics tell a very interesting story about Cougars, Final Four teams

Houston Cougars Cryer, Kelvin Sampson
The Coogs square off with Duke on Saturday. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.

The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.

There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.

College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.

“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”

And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.

KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.

In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.

Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.

That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.

“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”

Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.

Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).

Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.

Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.

“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”

Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.

Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.

The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.

This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.

“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”

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Kyle Tucker returns to Houston this weekend. Composite Getty Image.

Two first-place teams, identical records, and a weekend set with serious measuring-stick energy.

The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs open a three-game series Friday night at Daikin Park, in what could quietly be one of the more telling matchups of the summer. Both teams enter at 48-33, each atop their respective divisions — but trending in slightly different directions.

The Astros have been red-hot, going 7-3 over their last 10 while outscoring opponents by 11 runs. They've done it behind one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, with a collective 3.41 ERA that ranks second in the American League. Houston has also been dominant at home, where they’ve compiled a 30-13 record — a stat that looms large heading into this weekend.

On the other side, the Cubs have held their ground in the NL Central but have shown some recent shakiness. They're 5-5 over their last 10 games and have given up 5.66 runs per game over that stretch. Still, the offense remains dangerous, ranking fifth in on-base percentage across the majors. Kyle Tucker leads the way with a .287 average, 16 homers, and 49 RBIs, while Michael Busch has been hot of late, collecting 12 hits in his last 37 at-bats.

Friday’s pitching matchup features Houston’s Brandon Walter (0-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and Chicago’s Cade Horton (3-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), a promising young arm making one of his biggest starts of the season on the road. Horton will have his hands full with Isaac Paredes, who’s slugged 16 homers on the year, and Mauricio Dubón, who’s found a groove with four home runs over his last 10 games.

It’s the first meeting of the season between these two clubs — and if the trends continue, it may not be the last time they cross paths when it really counts.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -112, Cubs -107; over/under is 8 1/2 runs

Here's a preview of Joe Espada's Game 1 lineup.

The first thing that stands out is rookie Cam Smith is hitting cleanup, followed by Jake Meyers. Victor Caratini is the DH and is hitting sixth. Christian Walker is all the way down at seventh, followed by Yainer Diaz, and Taylor Trammell who is playing left field.

How the mighty have fallen.

Pretty wild to see Walker and Diaz hitting this low in the lineup. However, it's justified, based on performance. Walker is hitting a pathetic .214 and Diaz is slightly better sporting a .238 batting average.

Screenshot via: MLB.com



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