CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS
How efficiency metrics tell a very interesting story about Cougars, Final Four teams
Mar 31, 2025, 1:22 pm
The Coogs square off with Duke on Saturday. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.
The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.
The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.
There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.
College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.
“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”
And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.
KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.
In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.
Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.
That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.
“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”
Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.
Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).
Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.
Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.
“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”
Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.
Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.
The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.
This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.
“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”
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The Houston Cougars like mixing it up.
They enjoy seeing opponents colliding, sprawled across the floor. They thrive on rebounding and have used the relentlessly hard-nosed defense that has become their trademark during coach Kelvin Sampson’s 11-year career to take them places once considered unthinkable.
It's why they're now considered one of the country's most successful, consistent teams annually — and why they're one of four teams still playing Saturday in March Madness.
“That’s what we do,” Midwest Region Most Outstanding Player Emanuel Sharp said after Sunday's 69-50 win over Tennessee. “We’re a great defensive team and that’s how we like to set the tone of the game, on the defensive end. I think when we come out with the right intensity, we’re a hard team to beat.”
The Cougars (34-4) certainly haven't lost much this season.
Their 17-game winning streak is the longest in Division I, they swept the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament titles and now they've reached the Final Four for the first time since losing to 2021 national champion Baylor in a March Madness that will always be remembered as the tournament played in the Indiana COVID-19 bubble.
That loss came in a national semifinal, where the Cougars are 2-4 all-time. They'll face five-time national champion Duke in San Antonio, a 3 1/2-hour drive from their campus, as they try to reach their first title game since back-to-back runner-up finishes in 1983 and 1984.
“We didn’t get good the last 36 hours,” Sampson said when asked about Houston's quick turnaround between the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. “We just went through the Big 12 Tournament, played three games there. The thing I like about this team, I don’t think they overreact to anything, good or bad. Kind of keep an even keel.”
Perhaps that explains why the Cougars didn't even flinch after the 62-60 late-night, last-second win over Purdue in the Sweet 16 and facing the Vols in the Elite Eight.
How stingy have the Cougars been?
After allowing a Division I low 58.3 points during the regular season, Houston has allowed just 56.5 points in four NCAA Tournament games while allowing just one team, Gonzaga, to top 60 points. They also allowed the lowest scoring totals last weekend — twice.
Tennessee missed its first 14 3-pointers, shot a dismal 28.8% from the field and despite playing well defensively against Kentucky simply couldn't match the Cougars toughness.
“They do what they do,” deflated Vols coach Rick Barnes said in his opening statement after the loss. “That’s why they’re where they are, that’s the standard of their program.”
Yet in a college basketball era where faster, higher-scoring games seem to be all the rage, this Final Four seems to be all about the defense.
Duke swarmed Alabama's 3-point shooters, holding the Crimson Tide nearly 40 points below their previous game's scoring total to win the East Region title. Florida's defense spurred a late run to get past Texas Tech in the West Region and South Region champ Auburn is allowing just 65 points per game in the tourney.
But nobody has done it better than Houston, and that's by design.
Sharp, who is 6-foot-3, 210 pounds, and LJ Cryer, at 6-1, 200, may not look like the most imposing backcourt but they revel in getting physical. Plus, Cryer comes with a championship pedigree, part of Baylor's title team.
Houston forwards Ja'Vier Francis, J'Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler stand 6-8, not nearly as big as some of the other frontline beasts in San Antonio, but they are experienced, tough and muscle bound.
The inside-out defensive combination has made Houston almost unbeatable. Since starting the season at 3-4, they've gone 30-1 and broken the school's single-season victory record.
“We’re able to do some things that may be outside the box, whether it’s spending extra time on baseline out of bounds plays, we spend a lot of time on that, offensively and defensively,” Sampson said. “We take pride on not being scored on in baseline out of bounds. If you watch (Tennessee) when they beat Auburn or beat Alabama, they played a certain way. But we play the way we play and our kids are very confident in our approach and our defense.”
And now Sampson will find out if that defense is good enough to carry him to his first championship game in three Final Four trips — or bring Houston its elusive first title.
Don't miss the video below as ESPN Houston's John Granato and Lance Zierlein react to the Coogs reaching the Final Four and much more!