GAME 6 PREVIEW
Keep doubting these Rockets; it has worked well so far
May 26, 2018, 11:29 am
James Harden's bad shooting streak will come to an end at some point. Kevin C. Cox
Keep doubting, go ahead.
Keep soaking up the narrative that the national media has been spoon feeding everyone since even before Game 1's tip off.
“The Rockets have no chance.”
“The Rockets are going to get swept.”
“They just don't match up well.”
I bet you took that and ran with it. Plenty of people did. I bet you pointed at the TV screen as the Rockets fell in Game 1 and validated your skepticism to your buddies.
Then Game 2 happened, and Houston beat the brakes off of the untouchable Golden State super team. Houston had drawn blood against Xerxes, proving that they were in fact mortal. Houston fans were offered a faint glimmer of hope.
The next four days gave way to hot takes from the talking head prognosticators who began spreading whispers of heresy regarding the vulnerability of the NBA’s god-king.
Could they fall?
Is this the end of their reign?
The Warriors utilized Game 3 to crush the uprising with gratuitous show of force against the insubordinate upstart Rockets. Order must be restored, and a 41-point victory did just that.
With the status quo returned, Houston was once again given the “dead man walking" treatment.
“They're just too much for Houston.”
“Who will the Warriors play in the finals?”
Unphased by their defeat, the Rockets took to the court and insolently battled back from multiple double-digit deficits to steal a win at Golden State. They then returned home and gutted out a filthy victory to seize a 3-2 series lead in spite of a horrendous shooting performance from James Harden and the last minute loss of Chris Paul.
So here we are. The Rockets are up 3-2 against one of the greatest teams ever assembled in the history of basketball. Golden State is hurt. Houston is hurt. But that's what happens in a battle.
The loss of Chris Paul has seemingly negated the position the Rockets are in by most people following the series. In spite of a 3-2 lead and two convincing back to back victories, the grave has already been dug and the majority of those following this series are already lowering Houston's casket.
The majority of those following this series, however, haven't watched the Rockets all season.
They probably can't tell you that when Chris Paul was out in the beginning of the season, Eric Gordon slid into the starting rotation and the Rockets didn't miss a beat while he averaged 22 points a game.
They probably didn't see Gordon take over and average the same numbers for 10 games straight during Harden's injury either. They simply saw Chris Paul go down and called it a wrap.
This isn't Game 7, and Harden will not stay this cold shooting from range. The Rockets will have to find a way to productively divide roughly 40 minutes of playing time, but the firepower is still there. The main difference is that Houston is far more capable of playing their same style in the midst of injuries than Golden State. The Warriors, in the other hand, have just looked confused with the loss of Andre Igoudala. They have two chances to win just one game, and those are some pretty great odds.
So keep writing them off. Keep coming up with reasons to undermine Houston's performance into mediocrity. It's worked pretty well so far.
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The NFL Draft, NBA playoffs, and NHL playoffs all dwarf baseball in the sports pecking order this week, but that doesn’t detract from the Astros playing their best stretch of baseball in the still young season. Following up taking two of three from the previously sizzling hot Padres by sweeping the Blue Jays three straight has the Astros’ record at a just fine 13-11 as they open a three-game weekend series in Kansas City. 13-11 may not sound special, because it isn’t, but having come home from St. Louis last week with the record at 8-10 makes 13-11 a quality leap. Plus, a 13-11 pace over 162 games extrapolates to 87 wins, which last season were enough to win the American League West and for an AL Wild Card spot.
Batter up!
While no one will be confusing the potency of this Astros’ lineup with those of the 2017 or 2019 juggernauts, some welcome perking up may have kicked in, despite Yordan Alvarez still not getting rolling. After Joe Espada gave Christian Walker a “mental rest” game off Monday, Walker produced a three-hit game Tuesday and a two-hit follow-up Wednesday, including a home run. Walker’s .202 batting average and .640 OPS are still lousy, but a much lesser grade of lousy than the statistical abyss he was in starting the Toronto series. Yainer Diaz has been much worse than Walker to this point. Diaz managed at least one hit in all three games of the Jays series. Baby steps. He is still sitting on an unacceptable three walks in 78 plate appearances.
Speaking of hits and walks, Jeremy Pena carries a 14-game hitting streak into the weekend. One-quarter of the way to Joe DiMaggio’s big league record! Willy Taveras set the Astros’ record with a 30-gamer back in 2006. Pena hasn’t been crushing it during the streak, during which he has just two multi-hit games. He’s had stretches where he has hit better and slugged harder (2022 postseason anyone?), but while too small a stretch to declare a leap has been made, it is noteworthy that over the 14 games Pena has drawn six walks. That gives him eight free passes in 24 games this season. More math fun! That’s one walk drawn per three games, which over 162 games would make for 54. Last season in 157 games played Pena drew a paltry 25 walks. Add in that his defense has been superb so far this season with a number of fabulous plays made and just one error committed, and Pena could be making modest offensive improvement that makes him a meaningfully better player.
Furthermore speaking of hits and walks, it’s been a struggle on both fronts the last couple of weeks for Jose Altuve. A two-week funk does not represent a crisis, but there are troubling trends that bear watching as Altuve sets to turn 35 years old May 6. Over his last 14 games, Altuve’s OPS is a sub-Maldonadian .547. In this stretch he has two doubles as his lone extra base hits and drawn just two walks. Altuve has struck out 22 times in 24 games. Setting aside the short 2020 COVID season when Altuve never got it going, last year he had the worst strikeout percentage of his career, while his walk rate was his worst since 2015. So far this season, Altuve’s strikeout rate is more than 20 percent worse than last year’s, with his walk rate down 30 percent from 2024. He is hitting line drives at a much lower rate than ever before, and struggling to get the ball in the air. The season still isn’t 20 percent old, but since Altuve last season finished with his lowest OPS (.790, again, exempting 2020) since 2013, and his current .728 OPS is 62 points lower than that, the antennae of at least mild concern are up. This is the first season of Altuve’s five-year 125 million dollar contract extension. Remember, the Astros would not offer Kyle Tucker a contract that took him to age 35.
Bringing the heat!
Hunter Brown makes his next start Sunday in Kansas City. Good luck Royals! Until getting a doubleheader against the pathetic Rockies Thursday, K.C. was averaging under three runs per game. Brown's earned run average through five starts is 1.16! It's waaaaay early to focus on this, but the best season ERA for an Astro pitcher who qualified for the statistical lead (one inning pitched per team game played) belongs to Nolan Ryan who posted a 1.69 in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Over a full-schedule season, Justin Verlander's 1.75 in 2022 is the standard. Brown has fired 24 consecutive shutout innings. Ryan Pressly holds the Astros’ record with 38 consecutive scoreless innings pitched. Orel Hershiser set the Major League record by finishing the 1988 regular season with a ridiculous 59 straight shutout innings. Yes he won the National League Cy Young Award. The Cy Young is strictly a regular season award. Hershiser in 1988 also won the League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award, and World Series MVP.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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