Astros Prospect is Fine

Kyle Tucker: Doomed or destined?

Kyle Tucker: Doomed or destined?
Kyle Tucker is still adjusting. Rich Schultz

The doubters are already out in force.  Houston Astros top prospect Kyle Tucker hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since being called up on July 7, and some fans are calling for him to be sent back to AAA.  In this piece, I will break down Tucker’s swing mechanics, and we’ll see how it’s just a matter of time until Tucker is hitting at a clip similar to how he swung it in the minor leagues.

I want to preface this by saying that I’m far from a “Tucker truther.”  I hated the Tucker selection in the draft, and said the Astros should’ve taken Andrew Benintendi out of Arkansas with that selection instead of Tucker.  I thought he had a complex, flawed swing that wouldn’t translate to the next level. However, Tucker has made a multitude of adjustments since entering the Astros system, and his mechanics are ideal for the era of launch angle.

We’ll start by breaking down Tucker’s swing from high school, just months prior to the Astros taking him in the draft.

Tucker’s high school setup is on the left.  The screenshot is from a batting practice session at the Under Armour All-America showcase in 2014.  In this video, he has a very narrow stance, less than shoulder width apart. This is a consistent set up for Tucker across the range of videos you can find of him from high school.

This sort of stance can be complicated, as it requires lots of moving parts in order to get into a good hitting position.

Now, compare that set up to the picture in the Astros uniform on the right.  That is taken from last year’s Arizona Fall League, which his swing most closely resembles now.  His stance is a little bit more spread out, although it is still fairly upright. This will occasionally lead to issues with timing, which is what I think is Tucker’s big issue right now, but timing is easily fixable, something that can be found in an instant.  He’s in a much better spot on the right than the left.

Next we look at Tucker at foot plant from his high school swing.  There’s multiple problems in this screenshot.


First, take a look at his head movement.  In the screenshot from the setup above, the top of his head is even with the top of the railing from the seating behind him.  At foot plant, his head is considerably lower. This is spurred by the narrow stance he has. It’s hard enough to hit with your head still, imagine how hard it is to hit with it moving like his is.

Then we shift his attention to his weight transfer.  See how his front leg has some bend in it and his hips are on an upward plane.  With his hips riding towards the pitcher he’s lost some power and some bat speed.  Doing this will also lead to a lot of rollover, pull-side ground balls. Essentially, these two mechanical flaws lead to a lot of problems.

Shift your attention to Tucker at foot plant in the Arizona Fall League.  There’s still some head movement, but it’s not as severe, and even in the time since then he’s made adjustments to lessen the head movement.  My guess is that he will just have that quirk his entire career, and that’s an OK quirk to have, it’s just not ideal. Where he’s made huge changes is at foot plant.  His weight is in the middle of his body, he’s very balanced. He hasn’t lost his hips. This will allow him to keep his weight back and tap into that power and leverage that his long, lanky frame provides.


Now we compare the two swings at contact point.  The orange line from his toe to the top of his head is to help show the angle in his body lean.  It is tough to see at a glance, but if you look closely, you can see that in his professional swing he is quite a few more degrees back than in the high school swing.  These few degrees go a long way in creating launch angle and providing power in the swing. Also look at the orange line perpendicular to the ground. In the high school video, his back leg has driven through, which is a linear quality that is against new school launch angle beliefs.  Absolutely nothing is wrong with this, as many hitters in the majors do this. However, on the right you can see his head is directly over the piping on his pants and his foot has almost entirely stayed planted where it started. This is a rotational quality, and the more rotational a hitter is, they usually hit for more power.  

I also drew the blue line on the right to show how locked in his front side is, and how posted up he is against that front leg.  All hitters should have that front leg locked in at contact, as it will help maximize bat speed. Tucker does it beautifully in his professional swing.  He still does it in the high school swing, but he doesn’t lock in until much closer to contact.

So what does all of this mean?  Well, it means that Tucker has an extremely advanced swing and he’ll be fine.  I see timing issues with Tucker right now, which probably comes from some mental pressure and nervousness that comes with being a big leaguer.  Put shortly, players with the track record of success and the advanced swing of Tucker don’t struggle for long. Calm down and give him time Astros fans, he’ll be fine.

 

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The Astros need to do a better job of managing Altuve's playing time. Composite Getty Image.

Just one week ago, it looked like the Astros’ bats might finally be waking up. There was a noticeable uptick in offensive numbers, optimism in the air, and a belief creeping in that Houston could be on the verge of an offensive breakthrough. But if there was any momentum building, it collapsed over the past week.

In their latest seven-game stretch, the Astros were near the bottom of the league in virtually every key offensive metric — 24th in runs scored, 27th in OPS (.610), and 26th in slugging percentage (.337). These numbers aren't just a one-week blip. They are more aligned with the team’s season-long struggles, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to argue that the Astros are simply off to a slow start. The numbers don’t lie: 25th in home runs (39), 20th in OPS (.689), 23rd in slugging (.372), and 20th in total runs.

The hope was that Houston’s offense would eventually climb into the top 10. That no longer feels realistic. What’s becoming clearer each week is that this is a bottom-third offense — and the only thing keeping them competitive is elite pitching.

Pitching keeps the ship afloat

While the bats have sputtered, the arms have delivered. The Astros currently rank 7th in team ERA (3.39), 1st in WHIP (1.12), and 2nd in opponent batting average (.212). That’s championship-caliber stuff. But as the American League hierarchy takes shape, it’s worth noting that contenders like the Yankees and Tigers boast both top-five pitching and offense — a balance the Astros currently can’t come close to matching.

Core hitters going quiet

So what’s wrong with the offense? Much of it comes down to three players who were supposed to be key contributors: Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz. All three rank in the bottom 30 in MLB in OPS.

For Altuve, the struggles are especially glaring. The month of May has been a black hole for the veteran. He has yet to hit a home run or drive in a run this month. His season numbers (.241/.296/.646) are troubling enough, but the trend line is even worse:

  • Last 7 games: .148 AVG / .233 OBP / .185 SLG
  • Last 15 games: .175 AVG / .242 OBP / .228 SLG
  • Last 30 games: .193 AVG / .256 OBP / .272 SLG

That last stretch has Altuve ranked with the 8th worst OPS (.537) in all of baseball over the last month.

Yet despite the slump — and a 35-year-old body showing signs of wear — Altuve continues to be penciled into the lineup almost daily. Even after missing a game on May 11th with hamstring tightness, he returned the next day. Manager Joe Espada’s reluctance to give Altuve extended rest is becoming a storyline of its own. If he continues to produce at this level, it will be hard to justify keeping him at the top of the lineup.

Rotation takes a blow

The week delivered more bad news — this time on the injury front. The Astros announced that right-hander Hayden Wesneski will miss the remainder of the season and require Tommy John surgery. What makes the injury particularly frustrating is that the signs were there. Decreased velocity led to a longer rest period, but in his return start, the team allowed him to throw 40 pitches in the first inning. That start would be his last of the season.

With Wesneski out, the pressure now shifts to Lance McCullers, whose return was once seen as a bonus but now feels like a necessity. Spencer Arrighetti’s comeback becomes more critical as well. The Astros' rotation has depth, but the margin for error just got thinner.

The road ahead

The American League isn’t dominated by a juggernaut, which gives the Astros some breathing room. But the Yankees and Tigers are pulling away in terms of balance and consistency — the very thing Houston has lacked.

We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!

*ChatGPT assisted.

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