Astros Prospect is Fine

Kyle Tucker: Doomed or destined?

Kyle Tucker: Doomed or destined?
Kyle Tucker is still adjusting. Rich Schultz

The doubters are already out in force.  Houston Astros top prospect Kyle Tucker hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since being called up on July 7, and some fans are calling for him to be sent back to AAA.  In this piece, I will break down Tucker’s swing mechanics, and we’ll see how it’s just a matter of time until Tucker is hitting at a clip similar to how he swung it in the minor leagues.

I want to preface this by saying that I’m far from a “Tucker truther.”  I hated the Tucker selection in the draft, and said the Astros should’ve taken Andrew Benintendi out of Arkansas with that selection instead of Tucker.  I thought he had a complex, flawed swing that wouldn’t translate to the next level. However, Tucker has made a multitude of adjustments since entering the Astros system, and his mechanics are ideal for the era of launch angle.

We’ll start by breaking down Tucker’s swing from high school, just months prior to the Astros taking him in the draft.

Tucker’s high school setup is on the left.  The screenshot is from a batting practice session at the Under Armour All-America showcase in 2014.  In this video, he has a very narrow stance, less than shoulder width apart. This is a consistent set up for Tucker across the range of videos you can find of him from high school.

This sort of stance can be complicated, as it requires lots of moving parts in order to get into a good hitting position.

Now, compare that set up to the picture in the Astros uniform on the right.  That is taken from last year’s Arizona Fall League, which his swing most closely resembles now.  His stance is a little bit more spread out, although it is still fairly upright. This will occasionally lead to issues with timing, which is what I think is Tucker’s big issue right now, but timing is easily fixable, something that can be found in an instant.  He’s in a much better spot on the right than the left.

Next we look at Tucker at foot plant from his high school swing.  There’s multiple problems in this screenshot.


First, take a look at his head movement.  In the screenshot from the setup above, the top of his head is even with the top of the railing from the seating behind him.  At foot plant, his head is considerably lower. This is spurred by the narrow stance he has. It’s hard enough to hit with your head still, imagine how hard it is to hit with it moving like his is.

Then we shift his attention to his weight transfer.  See how his front leg has some bend in it and his hips are on an upward plane.  With his hips riding towards the pitcher he’s lost some power and some bat speed.  Doing this will also lead to a lot of rollover, pull-side ground balls. Essentially, these two mechanical flaws lead to a lot of problems.

Shift your attention to Tucker at foot plant in the Arizona Fall League.  There’s still some head movement, but it’s not as severe, and even in the time since then he’s made adjustments to lessen the head movement.  My guess is that he will just have that quirk his entire career, and that’s an OK quirk to have, it’s just not ideal. Where he’s made huge changes is at foot plant.  His weight is in the middle of his body, he’s very balanced. He hasn’t lost his hips. This will allow him to keep his weight back and tap into that power and leverage that his long, lanky frame provides.


Now we compare the two swings at contact point.  The orange line from his toe to the top of his head is to help show the angle in his body lean.  It is tough to see at a glance, but if you look closely, you can see that in his professional swing he is quite a few more degrees back than in the high school swing.  These few degrees go a long way in creating launch angle and providing power in the swing. Also look at the orange line perpendicular to the ground. In the high school video, his back leg has driven through, which is a linear quality that is against new school launch angle beliefs.  Absolutely nothing is wrong with this, as many hitters in the majors do this. However, on the right you can see his head is directly over the piping on his pants and his foot has almost entirely stayed planted where it started. This is a rotational quality, and the more rotational a hitter is, they usually hit for more power.  

I also drew the blue line on the right to show how locked in his front side is, and how posted up he is against that front leg.  All hitters should have that front leg locked in at contact, as it will help maximize bat speed. Tucker does it beautifully in his professional swing.  He still does it in the high school swing, but he doesn’t lock in until much closer to contact.

So what does all of this mean?  Well, it means that Tucker has an extremely advanced swing and he’ll be fine.  I see timing issues with Tucker right now, which probably comes from some mental pressure and nervousness that comes with being a big leaguer.  Put shortly, players with the track record of success and the advanced swing of Tucker don’t struggle for long. Calm down and give him time Astros fans, he’ll be fine.

 

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
The Rockets host the Warriors for Game 1 this Sunday. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

They’ll be watching in Canada, not just because of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, though the NBA’s scoring champion and MVP favorite who plays for Oklahoma City surely helps lure in fans who are north of the border.

They’ll be watching from Serbia and Greece, the homelands of Denver star Nikola Jokic and Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo. Alperen Sengun will have them watching Houston games in the middle of the night in Turkey, too. Slovenian fans will be watching Luka Doncic and the Lakers play their playoff opener at 2:30 a.m. Sunday, 5:30 p.m. Saturday in Los Angeles. Fans in Cameroon will be tuned in to see Pascal Siakam and the Indiana Pacers. Defending champion Boston features, among others, Kristaps Porzingis of Latvia and Al Horford of the Dominican Republic.

Once again, the NBA playoffs are setting up to be a showcase for international stars.

In a season where the five statistical champions were from five different countries, an NBA first — Gilgeous-Alexander is Canadian, rebounding champion Domantas Sabonis of Sacramento is from Lithuania, blocked shots champion Victor Wembanyama of San Antonio is from France, steals champion Dyson Daniels of Atlanta is from Australia, and assists champion Trae Young of the Hawks is from the U.S. — the postseason will have plenty of international feel as well. Gilgeous-Alexander is in, while Sabonis and Daniels (along with Young, obviously) could join him if their teams get through the play-in tournament.

“We have a tremendous number of international players in this league,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said earlier this season. “It’s roughly 30% of our players representing, at least on opening day, 43 different countries, so there’s much more of a global sense around our teams.”

By the end of the season, it wound up being 44 different countries — at least in terms of countries where players who scored in the NBA this season were born. For the first time in NBA history, players from one country other than the U.S. combined to score more than 15,000 points; Canadian players scored 15,588 this season, led by Gilgeous-Alexander, the first scoring champion from that country.

Gilgeous-Alexander is favored to be MVP this season. It'll be either him or Jokic, which means it'll be a seventh consecutive year with an international MVP for the NBA. Antetokounmpo won twice, then Jokic won three of the next four, with Cameroon-born Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers winning two seasons ago.

“Shai is in the category of you do not stop him,” Toronto coach Darko Rajakovic said after a game between the Raptors and Thunder this season.

In other words, he's like a lot of other international guys now. Nobody truly stops Jokic, Antetokounmpo and Doncic either.

And this season brought another international first: Doncic finished atop the NBA's most popular jersey list, meaning NBAStore.com sold more of his jerseys than they did anyone else's. Sure, that was bolstered by Doncic changing jerseys midseason when he was traded by Dallas to the Los Angeles Lakers, but it still is significant.

The Slovenian star is the first international player to finish atop the most popular jerseys list — and the first player other than Stephen Curry or LeBron James to hold that spot in more than a decade, since soon-to-be-enshrined Basketball Hall of Famer Carmelo Anthony did it when he was with New York in 2012-13.

“We’re so small, we have 2 million people. But really, our sport is amazing,” fellow Slovene Ajsa Sivka said when she was drafted by the WNBA's Chicago Sky on Monday night and asked about Doncic and other top Slovenian athletes. “No matter what sport, we have at least someone that’s great in it. I’m just really proud to be Slovenian.”

All this comes at a time where the NBA is more serious than perhaps ever before about growing its international footprint. Last month, FIBA — the sport's international governing body — and the NBA announced a plan to partner on a new European basketball league that has been taking shape for many years. The initial target calls for a 16-team league and it potentially could involve many of the biggest franchise names in Europe, such as Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City.

It was a season where four players topped 2,000 points in the NBA and three of them were international with Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic and Antetokounmpo. Globally, time spent watching NBA League Pass was up 6% over last season. More people watched NBA games in France this season than ever before, even with Wembanyama missing the final two months. NBA-related social media views in Canada this season set records, and league metrics show more fans than ever were watching in the Asia-Pacific region — already a basketball hotbed — as well.

FIBA secretary general Andreas Zagklis said the numbers — which are clearly being fueled by the continued international growth — suggest the game is very strong right now.

“Looking around the world, and of course here in North America," Zagklis said, "the NBA is most popular and more commercially successful than ever.”

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome