THE Z REPORT
Lance Zierlein: 3 simple steps for the Rockets to bounce back and win Game 2
Lance Zierlein
May 16, 2018, 8:18 am
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Is the sky falling? Frankly, maybe it is. James Harden put together a huge Game 1 and Chris Paul added 23 points and 11 rebounds and they still lost by double digits. How do you stop Kevin Durant? How do you keep Klay Thompson and Steph Curry from finding their rhythms and burying you this series?
Look, this is going to be a difficult series to win, but it’s not impossible and Game 1 also showed that the Rockets could definitely matchup with the Warriors - they just struggled to do it in the third quarter which was enough to turn that game into a boat race.
How to Erase -13
When you look up at the scoreboard and see a loss by 13 points, at home no less, it looks insurmountable. Maybe it will turn out to be a foreshadowing of the series. I know that the entire TNT crew seems to believe that Game 1 was representative of how this series will look, but it doesn’t have to.
Over the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Rockets were +4 in the turnover differential but they found themselves on the other end of that number in the series opener after turning it over 13 times and forcing just 9. The Rockets must win the turnover battle because the entire key to beating a team with elite shooting is to take away some of their possessions. Houston won the rebound battle, but must pair that a “W” in the turnover column as well. Win the turnover battle and that is worth at least four points.
The next step is to actually not lose Klay Thompson in the half-court sets. WTF?! When 4 of Thompson’s 6 3-point makes are wide-open you are going to lose. These shots are basically layups for him. If the Rockets can eliminate some of those defensive breakdowns, maybe two of those baskets go away and that would be worth six points.
And is it too much to ask Luc Mbah a Moute to make an actual layup? After going 0-for-6 including five missed chipies near the basket, he’s got to finish when he gets near the rim. Hell, the entire team needs to finish when they have easy looks near the rim. If he had made just two of those six shots, we are talking about four more points.
Winning turnover battle | +4 points |
Actually guarding Klay Thompson 3s | +6 points |
Making two easy layups at basket | +4 points |
New Point Differential | +14 points |
We haven’t even talked about how the Rockets shot free throws poorly and they allowed too many easy back-cuts to the basket for layups. I’m not telling you that the Rockets are going to win the series or even Game 2 (although they are favorites again), but I am telling you that those 13 points aren’t as insurmountable as you might think.
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The Houston Astros will look to even their three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday night at Daikin Park, with ace-in-the-making Hunter Brown taking the mound.
The Astros (55-36) dropped the series opener 7-5 on Monday, snapping a stretch that saw them win six of their last eight games. But they'll have their best arm on the hill in Brown, who enters with a 9-3 record, a sparkling 1.82 ERA, and a microscopic 0.90 WHIP. The right-hander has been the definition of dominant this season, striking out 126 batters and giving Houston a clear edge in any matchup he starts.
Cleveland (41-48) will counter with Joey Cantillo, who has impressed in limited action. The lefty owns a 3.41 ERA and will face a Houston lineup that has been red-hot, batting .298 over the last 10 games and piling up runs behind contributions from Victor Caratini, Cam Smith, and Jose Altuve.
Despite Monday’s setback, the Astros are still 32-15 at home and boast a 43-13 record when outhitting their opponent. Cleveland, meanwhile, has lost nine of its last 10 and is hitting just .187 over that span — though Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan remain threats to change a game with one swing.
TOP PERFORMERS: Jake Meyers has 15 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 21 RBIs for the Astros. Meyers is dealing with a calf issue and was out of the lineup for Game 1 versus the Guardians.
Caratini is 10 for 38 with two doubles and four home runs over the past 10 games.
Tuesday marks the fifth meeting between the two clubs this season, with the series tied 2-2. With Brown on the mound and the offense continuing to click, Houston will try to reclaim control and keep pace atop the American League.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -211, Guardians +173; over/under is 7 runs.
Lineup breakdown
Here's an early look at Houston's lineup for Game 2. Spots 1-6 are the same as Game 1, except Cooper Hummel is playing left field, with Altuve in the DH spot. Mauricio Dubon is hitting seventh and playing second base, with Zack Short (SS) hitting eighth, followed by Taylor Trammell batting ninth and playing center field. Jake Meyers is out of the lineup again with a calf issue.
Image via: MLB.com/Screenshot
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