DON'T PANIC

Lance Zierlein: The Astros aren't hitting. So what?

Lance Zierlein: The Astros aren't hitting. So what?
Alex Bregman will eventually start hitting. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

When you do a sports talk show, sometimes you watch sports differently than the average fan. You have to. Oh, wait... I'm not saying we are better than other fans or that we have some elevated sense of understanding of the sport that your average fan can't possibly have. No, that's not what I'm saying at all.

What I'm saying is that when writers and talkers watch sports, we are often trying to put pieces together to fit them into a narrative that we can talk about in print or on the air. Sometimes these topics are timely, thought-provoking, and even illuminating. At other times, we may be grasping at straws or extrapolating when the sample size doesn't call for it.

And let's be clear. I'm not talking about coming up with click-bait topics or intentional hot takes to garner attention and agitation from the reader/listener. There are plenty of people who do that, but I don't see that at this radio station (ESPN 97.5). This morning John Granato and I got into a debate that will eventually end in either a foreshadowing or a non-issue category.

Worried about the bats?

John Granato is worried about the bats and after the last six games, maybe he should be. The Astros have scored 12 runs over their last six and have been wildly unimpressive at the plate with a complete inability to break out or even string hits together. Me? I’m much less worried because history is on my side.

At the top of the lineup, George Springer is hitting .186 and Alex Bregman is hitting .186. If you don’t set the table, it’s hard to eat. It’s easy to get worked up by a bad six game run on the offensive side - especially on the heels of the World Series run where the offense carried the team. But why worry when this is always what happens with Springer and Bregman? Here are their career splits in March/April:

NAME

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

George Springer

.223

.300

.392

.692

Alex Bregman

.228

.340

.283

.623

These guys never get off to a great start, check that, an average start at the beginning of the season. The 2018 version of who they are at the plate in in April is who they usually are to start the seasons. The good news is that things change for these guys in May:

NAME

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

George Springer

.285

.391

.546

.937

Alex Bregman

.276

.308

.531

.838

Now, if Springer and Bregman keep slumping through May, then I’ll write a different column. However, they are in the early stages of their prime. They aren’t likely to have bad seasons. Bad months? Yes, that’s actually the norm in baseball, but a bad season is unlikely. And guess what? They are playing .750 baseball despite a lack of consistent hitting in half of those 12 games.

Every MLB team has concerns no matter how great they may be or appear to be. For the Astros, I don’t see it as the hitting. They are just going through an early season lull. Instead, I am concerned about Dallas Keuchel and his inability to get back to his pre-All star form last season. I’m worried about Ken Giles and whether or not Brad Peacock can be the full-time closer. There are things on my mind and the hitting health of Springer and Bregman is not one of them.

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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