The Z Report

Lance Zierlein: Chris Paul - the hero we needed

Lance Zierlein: Chris Paul - the hero we needed
The Rockets might be James Harden's team, but Chris Paul (left) stepped up when needed the most. Tim Warren/Getty Images

This past January, I was lucky enough to be invited to a lunch that included Chris Paul. This was a small group of nine people who were basically gathered to act in an advisory role. When it was Paul’s turn to speak, it didn’t take long to recognize how special he was and why he was going to be the reason that this year could be different for the Rockets.

Paul is ball. All ball, all the time. He plays his game that night and then comes home and grabs a quick bite with his wife while watching games he has recorded from that evening. He’s looking for tells and advantages. How quickly does each referee allow players to get the ball so they can in-bound it after out of bounds plays? Which players loaf back on defense that he can exploit with hit-aheads? How do different point guards defend different scenarios offensively? He looks for any advantage he can find so he can exploit it. All he cares about is winning.

Paul works overtime to keep himself in shape and fight off the nagging injuries that come with playing in the league as long as he’s played. I could tell at that luncheon that he understood what his role with the Rockets was going to be and he needed to be as ready as possible to fulfill that role in an attempt to fulfill this team’s potential in the postseason. Paul stepped into a situation where James Harden was the established alpha, but Paul has been able to establish himself as a leader as well without stepping on Harden’s toes.

Altering his role

Paul has been able to acquiesce to Harden for most of the season, but he’s proven to be ready to pick up the slack at a moment’s notice whenever Harden has faltered. That selflessness combined with readiness is an extremely rare trait for a star to possess and it takes a special player who is obsessed with winning to be able to pack and unpack his ego as needed for his team to succeed.

Paul’s performance in eliminating the Jazz from the playoffs was a microcosm of his presence this season. Sure, Harden has had a tremendous  year and should win his first ever MVP, but there was Paul ready to hit the accelerator when needed. In the second half with the game slipping away, all that preparation, all that work to keep his body right, and all that mental toughness manifested themselves in a game to remember.

In a way, he has been the Clyde Drexler to Harden’s Hakeem Olajuwon. Drexler played his role in the background, but when it was time to step up, he could take over different games which helped push the Rockets to a championship in 1994-1995. Chris Paul’s importance as a secondary ball-handler and primary scorer was on display in Game 5, but his preparation, will to win, and leadership ability could end up having a long-lasting impact on James Harden.

Netflix recommendation

One of my favorite things that has happened over the past six years is the proliferation of stand-up comedian specials on Netflix. You guys all know how bossy Netflix is. You can’t open up Netflix without it telling you about five new shows that they are sure you will like. Now I’m not saying that Netflix doesn’t have a feel for what I like because it does. Netflix recommended John Mulaney’s Kid Gorgeous to me and now I’m recommending it to you. I’ve always loved Mulaney’s comedy but this one had me laughing out loud with my headphones on while eating a beef shawarma plate and watching on my ipad. High praise.

 

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Kyle Tucker is expected back any day now! Composite Getty Image.

Each football game of a season carries much more weight than one game in a 162 Major League Baseball schedule. That reality, combined with the National Football League campaign opening and with it the most anticipated season in Texans’ history, the Astros are relegated to second banana this weekend. Just the way it goes despite the Astros’ phenomenal extended run from 10 games out of first place in mid-June to now having control of the American League West race and a likely (though definitely not yet certain) eighth consecutive year of postseason play.

It is reality that getting swept out of Cincinnati cost the Astros two games in the standings to Seattle the last two days and trimmed their division lead to four and a half games going into this weekend. There was nothing shameful about getting swept. It’s not as if they choked. They got outplayed and beaten in all three games. Stuff happens within a 162-game season. The 2019 Astros were vastly better than the 2024 Astros. The 2019 ‘Stros posted the best record in franchise history at 107-55. In Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole they had the two best pitchers in the AL. The Reds finished 75-87 in ’19. In the lone Astros-Reds series five years ago, Verlander and Cole started two of the three games. The Reds swept the Astros out of Cincy by scores of 3-2, 4-3, and 3-2. Stuff happens. The following week the Astros called up Yordan Alvarez. There is no Yordan coming to fortify the offense now, but wait! Is that Kyle Tucker's music?

The Astros host the NL champs this weekend

It’s highly unlikely but it’s still a possible World Series preview at Minute Maid Park this weekend with the Astros home for three games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reigning National League Champions woke up under .500 July 11, but since then have been sizzling with 33 wins against just 15 losses. Over the same time frame the Astros are 27-21. The Diamondbacks by a large margin have scored the most runs in MLB this season, and that’s while playing the last nearly three weeks without Ketel Marte because of a high ankle sprain. Marte has been far and away the best second baseman in the game this year. He may return this weekend in a designated hitter role. The Arizona offense overall has been sensational, however it has vulnerability against left-handed pitching, in significant part because it typically takes lefty-hitting platoon beast Joc Pederson out of the lineup. The D’Backs are 55-35 in games facing right-handed starters, just 24-27 in games started by opposing southpaws. The Astros have lefties Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi set to go in the first two games this weekend. While the Astros deal with the Diamondbacks the Mariners are in St. Louis for three against the Cardinals.

Eleven Diamondbacks have had at least 200 plate appearances this season. Only one of them has an OPS below .725. The Astros also have 11 guys with at least 200 PAs. Five of them lug around sub-.715 OPSes: Jeremy Pena (.714), Jake Meyers (.664), Mauricio Dubon (.645), Jon Singleton (.697), and Chas McCormick (.566).

Maximizing Tucker's return

Speaking of returns, Tucker fiiiiiiinally should see action for the first time since his June 3 bone bruise. Oh wait, broken leg. Shame on the Astros for their BSing over this and other injuries. Yeah, Alex Bregman slept funny. Whatever. To boost the lineup Tucker doesn’t have to be the .979 OPS MVP candidate he was when felled. Ben Gamel has done some good work, but over time he’s Ben Gamel. Same for Jason Heyward. If Tucker's legs are under him his power is a B-12 shot and only Yordan is in his league in on-base percentage. Joe Espada has decisions to make as to how slot the batting order. Against a right-handed starter Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Bregman one through five makes sense with Tucker dropping down below Yainer against a left-handed starter. No question those are the top five in some order. How much of a workload Tucker is ready for bears watching. Presumably he doesn’t initially play the outfield day in day out. When Tucker DHs obviously Bregman (and Yordan) can’t so Alex’s ailing elbow holding up is key. One might say hopefully the bone chips don’t fall where they may. Tuesday the Astros start a stretch playing 16 days in a row.

Keep hope alive!

If you’re an Astros fan holding out hope of chasing down the second seed to avoid having to play the best-of-three Wild Card series, say it with me, whatever nausea it may induce: “Go Dodgers Go!” Hurt as it might, business is business. The Dodgers play host to the Guardians. The Astros trail Cleveland by five games with just 22 to play, but do finish the regular season with three games at Cleveland. It's pretty much over for the Astros to catch both the Orioles and Yankees.

Season-long trends mean nothing once the playoffs start, and that’s a good thing for the Astros provided they are in the playoffs. They continue to flat out stink in close games. Thursday’s 1-0 loss to the Reds has the Astros record in one-run games at 15-24. In two-run games they are 10-14. Correlatively, the Astros also continue to routinely fail late in close games. The Astros have played 14 games that were tied after seven innings. They have lost 11 of the 14. In games tied after eight innings they are 7-13. Every team loses an extremely high percentage of games when trailing after eight innings, but the Astros haven’t pulled out a single game they’ve trailed going to the ninth. 0-50. Oh and fifty. But hey, the White Sox are 0-92!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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