The Z Report
Lance Zierlein: Chris Paul - the hero we needed
Lance Zierlein
May 9, 2018, 10:09 am
The Rockets might be James Harden's team, but Chris Paul (left) stepped up when needed the most. Tim Warren/Getty Images
This past January, I was lucky enough to be invited to a lunch that included Chris Paul. This was a small group of nine people who were basically gathered to act in an advisory role. When it was Paul’s turn to speak, it didn’t take long to recognize how special he was and why he was going to be the reason that this year could be different for the Rockets.
Paul is ball. All ball, all the time. He plays his game that night and then comes home and grabs a quick bite with his wife while watching games he has recorded from that evening. He’s looking for tells and advantages. How quickly does each referee allow players to get the ball so they can in-bound it after out of bounds plays? Which players loaf back on defense that he can exploit with hit-aheads? How do different point guards defend different scenarios offensively? He looks for any advantage he can find so he can exploit it. All he cares about is winning.
Paul works overtime to keep himself in shape and fight off the nagging injuries that come with playing in the league as long as he’s played. I could tell at that luncheon that he understood what his role with the Rockets was going to be and he needed to be as ready as possible to fulfill that role in an attempt to fulfill this team’s potential in the postseason. Paul stepped into a situation where James Harden was the established alpha, but Paul has been able to establish himself as a leader as well without stepping on Harden’s toes.
Altering his role
Paul has been able to acquiesce to Harden for most of the season, but he’s proven to be ready to pick up the slack at a moment’s notice whenever Harden has faltered. That selflessness combined with readiness is an extremely rare trait for a star to possess and it takes a special player who is obsessed with winning to be able to pack and unpack his ego as needed for his team to succeed.
Paul’s performance in eliminating the Jazz from the playoffs was a microcosm of his presence this season. Sure, Harden has had a tremendous year and should win his first ever MVP, but there was Paul ready to hit the accelerator when needed. In the second half with the game slipping away, all that preparation, all that work to keep his body right, and all that mental toughness manifested themselves in a game to remember.
In a way, he has been the Clyde Drexler to Harden’s Hakeem Olajuwon. Drexler played his role in the background, but when it was time to step up, he could take over different games which helped push the Rockets to a championship in 1994-1995. Chris Paul’s importance as a secondary ball-handler and primary scorer was on display in Game 5, but his preparation, will to win, and leadership ability could end up having a long-lasting impact on James Harden.
Netflix recommendation
One of my favorite things that has happened over the past six years is the proliferation of stand-up comedian specials on Netflix. You guys all know how bossy Netflix is. You can’t open up Netflix without it telling you about five new shows that they are sure you will like. Now I’m not saying that Netflix doesn’t have a feel for what I like because it does. Netflix recommended John Mulaney’s Kid Gorgeous to me and now I’m recommending it to you. I’ve always loved Mulaney’s comedy but this one had me laughing out loud with my headphones on while eating a beef shawarma plate and watching on my ipad. High praise.
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While we wait to see whether the Texans get to avoid facing Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City Saturday, Houston and another "Show Me" state team popped into the news this week. There is irony in St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado exercising his no-trade clause to prevent him from being traded to the Astros. Obviously, Arenado sees the Astros as no longer the behemoth they were for several seasons. Well, neither is Arenado. The Astros were last an elite ballclub in 2022 (and have the World Series trophy to prove it). Arenado was last an elite player in 2022 when he finished third in National League Most Valuable Player Award voting. The Astros were still good the last two years though no longer special. Arenado was a little above mediocre in 2023 and plain mediocre in 2024. If he’s trying to squeeze additional money beyond the 74 million dollars left on the three years remaining on his contract in order to approve the trade, he’s in fantasyland. Arenado is highly overpaid at his level of performance the last two seasons. More reasonably, he’s probably hoping he can funnel himself to the Yankees, Mets, or Phillies, all of whom may be in the third baseman market, and all of whom are stronger looking organizations than the Astros project to be over the next three seasons. You probably can add the Red Sox to that list.
The purported terms of the deal the Astros had put the cart before the horse with the Cardinals had the Redbirds paying off some of Arenado’s deal to get rid of the rest of the money from their books, leaving the Astros on the hook for three years and 45 million dollars or so. Three years at 15 mil per for a guy in serious decline over the last two years and who turns 34 years old in April? No thanks. That would be bolting shut the door shut on Alex Bregman. Maybe that should read further bolting shut the door.
Consider the following, with which I made my Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast compadres recoil in horror this week:
In 2024 Nolan Arenado had 578 at bats and produced 39 extra base hits.
In 2023 Jose Abreu had 540 at bats and produced 42 extra base hits.
It’s not advanced calculus. The abysmal Abreu had fewer ABs than Arenado yet delivered more extra base hits. Check please! Granted, while Abreu was also generally feeble defensively at first base, Arenado is still a solid glove man at the hot corner, though not the guy who won Gold Gloves the first ten seasons of his career. But you get the point. The 2024 Astro most comparable offensively to Arenado for time played...Jon Singleton.
In the Kyle Tucker trade the Astros acquired Isaac Paredes who is best suited defensively to play third. The highest hope of return in the deal is Cam Smith, a third baseman by trade, though he may wind up at first base or in the outfield. There is also Brice Matthews to consider. Maybe Matthews winds up succeeding Jeremy Pena at shortstop. Or maybe he better projects as a third baseman.
Taking on three years of Arenado and blocking prospects would be silly. Moving him to first base would diminish his defensive value. At his 15 million dollar salary Arenado will make within a couple million of what Tucker projects to make in 2025 via salary arbitration. This with Arenado not half the player Tucker is presently. Although his offensive numbers are inflated from his eight seasons playing in the hitting haven that is Denver (career OPS at Coors Field is .982, everywhere else .795), Arenado is a very legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. He’s been a better player over his career than Bregman has been over his. But in neither 2023 nor 2024 was Arenado as good as Bregman. There’s little reason to think Arenado will be the better player in 2025. Obviously the pay grade would be significantly different but it would be an interesting (nicer word for it) look for the Astros to take on a declined player for his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons, while they got all squirrely over paying Kyle Tucker beyond his age 33 season (Tucker has six seasons to play before he turns 34). Arenado is one of numerous reasons why the Astros reasonably see it as stretching to the limit in offering Bregman six years through his age 36 season.
The Astros are trying to thread the needle of staying competitive (which doesn’t require excellence in the American League West) while ideally getting the payroll below the Competitive Balance Tax thresholds. It’s not as if Jim Crane is being a payroll cheapskate. The Astros presently project to be in the top eight in CBT payroll. The 2025 Astros will suffer because of the financial dead weights that are Abreu, Rafael Montero, and to large if not full extents Lance McCullers and Cristian Javier. At least neither the Mariners nor Rangers have done anything to their roster that moves the needle. They still could, but haven’t yet.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!